Vision Consulting, a political think tank closer to the right than to the left, outlined four different scenarios concerning the possible outcome of the referendum. The most likely, according to these political scientists, is that the referendum will be valid, i.e. enough people will go and vote, but the number of "yes" votes will not be higher than 2.5 million. Keep in mind that 2 million "yes" votes are necessary for the referendum to be successful. In this case, says Vision Consulting, Fidesz will not be satisfied. After all, Viktor Orbán was hoping for results so compelling that they would usher in a sweeping change. If the victory is not total as Orbán promised and hoped, he will be in some trouble. "While the radical elements within the party will demand the overthrow of the government, the coalition will try to divert the attention from the results of the referendum." In this case, the Fidesz will have to start another campaign. According to Vision Consulting, the most likely scenario will be more street demonstrations and a speech by Orbán in which he will outline a new "goal" to his followers.
Another scenario outlined by Vision Consulting is that the number of "yes" votes is substantial but the referendum is not valid, i.e. not enough people will participate. In this case "the interest of both sides is identical: to forget the referendum as soon as possible."
The third possibility, one that Vision Consulting considers unlikely, is the "total defeat of the MSZP." This would mean both that the referendum is valid and that "yes" votes swamp "no" votes–"if there were over three million ‘yes’ votes." In this case, the MSZP would try to explain the defeat as simply the defeat of these three questions and claim that their politics are unchanged. It means nothing. As Gyurcsány put it: "What will come after March 9th? March 10th!"
The least likely scenario is a total defeat of the Fidesz. Total defeat would mean that the referendum is not valid and the difference between the "yes" and "no" votes is not substantial. In this case, the Fidesz "failed both in mobilizing and persuading their followers."
This analysis was published today and most likely is based on polls conducted sometime last week. Since the number of people who indicate that they will take part in the referendum is steadily shrinking, there is still the possibility that these predictions may not be quite accurate.