Well, this was a very lopsided election although some people expected even worse results for the socialists. According to some predictions Jobbik was supposed to beat the socialists, but that didn't materialize. Barely, but MSZP managed to edge up to second place. Most of the pollsters overestimated the results for Fidesz: instead of 53% they predicted 57-59%. Even Gábor Kuncze, former chairman of SZDSZ, was expecting better results for Fidesz and worse for MSZP.
Nonetheless, for the socialists the results are pretty devastating. Just to give a few examples. There is the county of Baranya that was considered to be a socialist stronghold. In the county there are seven electoral districts, and in 2006 six out of the seven went to MSZP. In 2010 six (including the electoral districts of Pécs) went to Fidesz with more than 50% of the votes. So no no ruff-on elections will be necessary.
In the county of Békés where there are six electoral districts Fidesz was the clear winner in all six; four years ago five districts sent socialists to parliament. Even the very popular József Karsai who often went against his own socialist party received only 26.65% of the votes while his Fidesz rival got 48.93%. I don't think the final result is in doubt.
Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén in the northeast corner of the country is the stronghold of Jobbik. Here MSZP lost big. In 2006 all ten members of parliament were socialist, but now Fidesz candidates lead everywhere. More importantly, Jobbik in many districts received more votes than MSZP. In Ózd Jobbik got 32%, 10% more than the MSZP candidate; Fidesz beat Jobbik by only 8%. In Sátoraljaújhely Jobbik received 29% of the votes. In Edelény there were three right-wing candidates–Pierre Daher (Fidesz), Árpád Miklós (Jobbik) and the infamous Oszkár Molnár (independent). It was here that Fidesz did the worst. Their candidate received only 36.5% of the votes against Jobbik's 19% and Molnár's 24%. Miskolc, considered to be a socialist stronghold, was also lost. The socialist mayor received 28.5%, only 4% more than Jobbik's candidate and was 12% behind Fidesz.
In Budapest, another stronghold of MSZP, the situation is no better. In 2006 the socialists won in twelve districts after the first round of voting and eighteen after the second round. Now there is only one district where the socialist leads with 44.71% while the Fidesz candidate is trailing him by 8%. However, the final outcome even here is in question because Jobbik received 8.9% and LMP a bit more than 10%. If LMP were to decide not to run in the second round MSZP might win, but I heard about an hour ago that András Schiffer announced that they are not ready to withdraw anywhere that they ended up in third place.
Another district where things looked promising for MSZP was the XI. district where Tibor Szanyi was running against István Simicskó. Szanyi was actually leading with 41 votes at 7 p.m. But then came the onslaught of young voters who voted in Budapest instead of their permanent places of residence. They were most likely students. Interestingly enough they all got there very late in the day and they were voting until 1:30 a.m. Apparently they waited patiently for five or six hours. At the final tally Szanyi lost by 400 votes. Socialists on the spot claimed that the onslaught of these youngsters was organized by Jobbik.
Another socialist city is Szeged where László Botka, the socialist mayor, was supposed to win. Everybody claimed that he was very popular in town, and the city has done well under his stewardship. Apparently Botka did well in the city and the suburbs but lost in the surrounding villages. He ended up with 36% of the votes against Fidesz's 43%. He will have a major uphill battle in the second round because LMP received 8.8% of the votes and Jobbik 11.6%.
As for the strength of Jobbik. In eight electoral districts in Hajdu-Bihar county Jobbik outpaced the socialists. In four districts in the the county of Heves Jobbik candidates did better than their MSZP counterparts. For example in Füzesabony Jobbik received 28% while Lajos Korózs, undersecretary in the ministry of social services and labor, got only 22.5%. MSZP was very hopeful about their chances in Hatvan but even here Jobbik beat them by 5%. In Jász-Nagykun-Szolnok county Jobbik again did extremely well. In six out of eight districts Jobbik did better than the socialists. As an example of the depth of the defeat: Imre Szekeres, minister of defense, received 18.9% of the votes, Jobbik got 24.2%, and Fidesz won the district outright with 54%. Another example of socialist failure is the case of György Keleti who was known to win in the first round time and time again ever since 1994. This time he lost to an unknown Fidesz candidate who garnered more than 50% of the votes.
Jobbik managed to beat two well known socialist ministers as well. Ferenc Juhász, former minister of defense, received 18.2% of the votes and Jobbik's candidate over 33%. János Veres, former minister of finance, got 17.65% while Jobbik's candidate received 22.89%.
And one could continue. It doesn't matter how you look at it, the election was a landslide for Fidesz and a strong showing for Jobbik, although it is possible that Jobbik politicians expected even better results. The big surprise is the performance of LMP, a party about which we know very little. A lot of former SZDSZ liberals voted for them, but not everybody is convinced that LMP is as liberal as those who supported them think. These votes certainly came from the left, and it will be a real disappointment if LMP in parliament cooperates with Fidesz as some people fear. In that case MSZP will be quite alone on the battlefield.