Just to show the extent of Fidesz's win I should state that if Hungary used the English or American electoral system, meaning winner takes all in independent electoral districts, all 386 seats in the Hungarian parliament would have gone to Fidesz. It would be a one-party system. Rather frightening, isn't it?
As it stands now, in order to prevent Fidesz from acquiring their much desired two-thirds majority of the parliamentary seats MSZP must turn the results around in at least seven electoral districts and hang on to their lead in the one district (Budapest #20) where József Tóth (MSZP) is ahead. There are two more Budapest districts where MSZP might have a chance to reverse the results: in districts # 19 and #16. District #19 is the infamous district where people were standing in line until 1:30 in the morning to be able to vote. Also that was the district where Tibor Szanyi had a slim lead at 7 p.m., the official closing time, but by the time voting was over it was reversed, mostly by out-of-town voters. So Szanyi is trailing the Fidesz candidate by 424 votes. In district #16, the MSZP candidate is behind the Fidesz candidate by 1857 votes. Then there are two districts in the city of Szeged. In district #3, the difference between two candidates is 2,540 and in district #1 2,857 votes stand between Fidesz and MSZP.
There are three districts where, although Fidesz is leading, Jobbik's showing was substantial. Two of these districts are in Borsod-Abauj-Zemplén County and one in the county of Szabolcs. The two right-wing parties have to slug it out in these districts. The third case is a really peculiar one. That is the #8 district (Edelény) in the county of Borsod-Abauj-Zemplén, where three right-wingers entered the ring. The original Fidesz candidate, Oszkár Molnár, mayor of Edelény, was too embarrassing to Fidesz when on YouTube one could hear him saying pretty awful things against Gypsies, Jews, and gays. After Fidesz dropped him, he decided to run as an independent. I thought that he would beat the absolute newcomer, a Syrian or Lebanese immigrant whose Hungarian is apparently not exactly faultless. He was, by the way, also caught saying nasty things about Jews. There is a slight Fidesz lead, but Jobbik and Molnár together could easily beat him. And ideologically Molnár is closer to Jobbik than to Fidesz. So here Fidesz might be knocked out by a joint effort of Jobbik and Molnár.
In order for MSZP to change the outcome in the districts I mentioned it needs LMP's assistance. That is, in districts where LMP ended up in third place, the party would withdraw its candidates. That would mean that LMP voters might then vote for the MSZP candidate in the second round. In Budapest the shift could be significant. There is only one problem: LMP announced that they will not withdraw their candidates. They will stay and that's that.
LMP claims that by not making deals it is not taking sides. Well, perhaps. But if Fidesz gets its desired two-thirds majority no other party, LMP included, will have any sway over Hungarian politics. Although LMP made its stance on the issue clear yesterday, MSZP made a unilateral gesture, withdrawing its candidates in four Budapest districts (#6, 8, 14, and 21) where the LMP showing was strong. LMP did not respond in kind. The LMP spokeswoman just reiterated the party's position. They have no mandate from their supporters to withdraw candidates, and if Fidesz gets a two-thirds majority it's not the fault of LMP but of the socialists.
I admit that if LMP were to make a deal with MSZP it might cast a shadow on the party in the eyes of those who as committed liberals didn't want to vote for the socialists. That is, if the party is on the up-and-up because rumors are already circulating in Budapest that LMP was actually the creation of Fidesz for the express purpose of taking votes away from MSZP. There might be something in this. One mustn't forget that LMP grew out of an environmental civic organization headed by László Sólyom, the same man who after the elections gleefully announced that "the rebuilding of the country can now at last begin." Also, András Schiffer, the leader of LMP, announced yesterday that if Fidesz doesn't have the necessary two-thirds majority in order to make important fundamental changes, LMP would vote with the government party. It is possible that the liberals who thought they found a home in LMP might have been duped. Only time will tell whether the rumors are justified.