The Clinton-Trump debate through Hungarian eyes

Already last night, after watching the U.S. presidential debate, I decided that I would check the Hungarian media’s coverage of the event. I’m happy to report that on the whole coverage of the debate was fair, with the exception of right-wing, pro-government sites that tried to make Trump the winner. A fair number of the leading papers relied in part on MTI’s report from Washington, with additional information coming from the American media. A few sleep-deprived reporters even listened to the debate live, and thus their writing reflects the genuineness of personal experience. Here I am especially thinking of Anita Köműves’s “Clinton was well prepared and didn’t give Trump a chance” in Népszabadság and A. Király’s “Clinton forced Trump to defend himself” in 444.hu. Eszter Balla, a correspondent of sorts for valasz.hu, sent a report from San Francisco titled “Clinton-Trump 1:0,” in which she stated that “Hillary Clinton won the debate with convincing dominance.” In my opinion these reports and assessments can stand on their own. Hungarians who rely on them will have a pretty solid grasp of what transpired last night.

clinton-trump

The same cannot be said of some of the pro-government sources, which have been rooting for Donald Trump for months. First of all, most of the journalists who work for these papers are ideologically close to the right wing of the Republican party (although Trump is not its most obvious spokesman). And, second, Viktor Orbán made it clear some time ago that he is cheering for the Republican candidate.

In the last few months Magyar Idők has worked hard to acquaint its readers with Trump. In almost every issue there has been something about him, however insignificant. Yesterday, for example, it published a short news item picked up from The Washington Times which alleged that CNN had edited “crooked” out of Trump’s tweet before Hillary Clinton’s name. This occasion gave them the opportunity to talk about the biased CNN, which “Republicans simply call Clinton News Network.” Also yesterday we could read in Magyar Idők that “a veterans group that is trying to force swing-state Republican lawmakers to ‘disavow’ Donald Trump is actually being propped up by the George Soros-funded pro-Democrat advocacy group MoveOn.org.” The news originally appeared in breitbart.com, which seems to be the favorite news source in Hungarian right-wing circles.

Hirado.hu is the “official news outlet” of MTVA, the organization that supplies news to the so-called public television and radio stations. M1, the channel concentrating on news almost exclusively, asked a political scientist who is employed by the Külügyi és Külgazdasági Intézet, a think tank that supplies background material to the diplomats of the foreign ministry, to inform the public about Trump’s chances in the battle for the presidency. Márton Ugrósdy, who after getting a degree at ELTE spent a year at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, confidently announced that as long as Trump doesn’t make a huge mistake he will have an easy time of it at the debate. On the other hand, Hillary Clinton will have a much more difficult time. He also predicted that the first few sentences of the debate will decide the end result, adding that actually debates nowadays are not as important as they were, let’s say, ten years ago. Clearly, this expert has been sending reports to the ministry about a Trump presidency as a fait accompli.

By this morning or early afternoon most Hungarian papers concluded that Clinton did a much better job than Trump. But there were exceptions. Magyar Idők to the last minute refused to admit outright that their favorite candidate had lost the debate. The title of their article on the subject was “According to Trump, Clinton doesn’t have enough stamina to be president,” and they added only that “according to CNN the secretary of state won the debate.” And, of course, we know what the journalists of Magyar Idők think of CNN’s liberal bias. Magyar Idők by late afternoon, most likely reluctantly, published an MTI report based on an interview with Tibor Frank, professor of American Studies, who is a real “expert” on the United States, on MTV’s M1 channel. He pointed out Trump’s problems with the truth, adding that “Clinton, once she says something, it is true the next day as well.”

888.hu, one of the newest pro-government tabloids designed to capture the imagination of right-wing youth, also had problems with reality. They found someone who lives in New York who filed his opinion of the debate, which can be summed up as “a half-hearted attempt, a very average performance in which no winner could be named.” This afternoon 888.hu announced that polls conducted by CNN and NBC “naturally will declare the candidate of the Democrats the winner, but the readers of the largest, most authoritative online news sites without question declared Donald Trump to be the winner of the debate.” This announcement was then followed by a list of these sites: Drudge Report, Fortune, Time, CBS New York, CNBC, Washington Times, Slate Magazine, AOL, and Fox5. (We, of course, know how that happened.)

I left Magyar Nemzet to last. Today it came out with a short article which basically collected the results of American media opinion on the debate and freely admitted Clinton’s victory. Four days ago, however, the paper published a very strange opinion piece by Krisztián Pap, who has written two or three articles for the paper in the last couple of years. He seems to be a true right-winger with a hatred of the United States and admiration for Russia. In one of his earlier articles for Magyar Nemzet he called the United States “a terrible drag on Europe” (kolonc a nyakán). Therefore, it is not at all surprising that Pap would welcome the presidency of Donald Trump, who wants to move the United States back to splendid isolation. In the course of the article, for example, he accused the United States of entering the war in 1941 not to save Europe from Nazi domination but for selfish economic reasons. The United States wants to rule the world economically and otherwise, but Trump is a different kind of candidate. His supporters see him as a true patriot and not a figure in the global chess game. Trump is a man who is “the guardian of the old-fashioned American values of the early settlers and farmers while his rival, Hillary Clinton, openly presents herself as the fighter for the rights of Afro-American and Spanish-speaking minorities.” Pap is looking forward to a Trump presidency, which will bring about an inward turn and will cherish the kind of isolationism that was prevalent between the two world wars. “At last the sword will be placed back in its sheath” and the United States will give up its incessant sermonizing. I may add that many comments, even in liberal papers like Népszabadság, are strongly anti-American.

So, media coverage on the U.S. in general and on the presidential campaign in particular is a mixed bag. Opinions about the candidates depend, just like here, on one’s political views. Hungarian society is just as deeply divided, if not more so, than American society. I would like to see a poll on Hungarian attitudes toward the candidates. It could be revealing.

September 27, 2016
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Member

I am NOT for Trump! I had the misfortune meeting him twice, years ago doing business for one of his developments in California. He is not a presidential material, not even a pleasant, decent businessman.
==========================================
BUT, I venture to say, that CNN is the Clinton News Network.
Not because of the debate, but because for years it has been a Democratic Party brainwash organ with a political agenda. They successfully brainwashed a large portion of the American public ,being completely biased and misrepresenting issues. Similarly, as the MTI in Hungary.
P.S.
If it wasn’t Hillary, who was sending emails out on unsecured private account with sensitive information and erase thousands of incriminating letters, others would be in jail for the Federal crimes she did in her official capacity. However, she is protected by very, very biased and lying, cheating government employees. With the Clintons, MONEY TALKS. They sold us out, for moneys to finance Hillary to have the power and she does not care about anything else, not even the Constitution and the Laws of the US.
Unfortunately, Trump is even worse.

Member

…infinitely, incomparably, inordinately, indecently, inexcusably worse…

And what besides MONEY (and guns) does Trump TALK?

“Laws are to be ‘used’.”

“Avoiding tax is just ‘smart’.”

And you talk about Clinton’s email carelessness? That’s worthy of the talk about Gyurcsany’s scatologisms: utterly trivial alongside Orban’s bottomless odia…

Member

There are infinitely more crimes committed by Hillary than sending out confidential emails to half of the World. “infinitely, incomparably, inordinately, indecently, inexcusably more…

Reality Check
Guest

You have been duped by a 30 year republican smear campaign.

And how exactly does a finite being commit infinite crimes.

Member

You have been duped by a 30 years of Democratic Party smear campaign.
Please spare me from further comments, we are NOT going to agree about Hillary at all! I maintain, that the World would be a better place today, if Hillary has never been born.

webber
Guest

Gyula, you vote for whomever you prefer, and that is that. There are plenty of reasons for disliking Clinton. I believe she will start or enter a war within the first two years of her presidency – and I believe she will even do that against the advice of the Pentagon.

So, I don’t like the choices this year, but for me it’s anyone but Trump. I am serious when I say he is Putin’s candidate.

With a Trump presidency, we could see all of Ukraine overrun, and a new war in Bosnia.

I believe Clinton will stop that.

Member

I have no way of predicting the future, nor the individual and personal actions of our President, no matter who will be elected, responding to a major World crisis.
I do have a fair idea, how a President from the Democrats with Democratic Party majority in the House and with Democratic Party Government workers, placed by a President (He/she can hire and fire approx. 2,500 people working in Washington) would back off from any challenge from Russia and China and sustain North Korea from fear.
This is based on the Obama presidency, during which the power and influence of the USA slipped from first place to fourth in the World.
Trump can do even worse! He is a thoroughly confused and graceless elephant in the China shop.

webber
Guest
webber
Guest

And if that is not enough – Orban said Trump has his support.
http://index.hu/belfold/2016/07/23/orban_a_vilagon_elsokent_allt_be_trump_moge/

webber
Guest
On war – I agree with you that predicting things is foolish. So, why have I given three predictions above? First, I should note that of the two candidates for President, only one of them has made a prediction. Trump said that Russia is “not going to go into Ukraine.” (evoking a big fy Trump from me, personally – sorry to be so rude, but…) http://edition.cnn.com/2016/07/31/politics/donald-trump-russia-ukraine-crimea-putin/ Now, as to my own predictions: 1. I’ve heard some inside information about Ukraine, and believed it. Could be I was misinformed – I admit (n.b. I am not at all involved in security or anything related – not even distantly.) 2. – This is all public information, nothing inside: When the Bosnian Serb leader Dodik visited Moscow a few days ago, Putin said Russia would pay all the Bosnian Serb entity’s debt (peanuts for Russia), and will give the Bosnian Serbs some extra funding, and weapons and training for Bosnian Serb police (police means army there – trust me on that). Furthermore, Putin told Dodik that the Bosnian Serbs have every right to decide this or that by referendum. And Putin invited Dodik to open a foreign office in St Petersburg (first step… Read more »
Guest

Re: ‘On war – I agree with you that predicting things is foolish’

And I’d suggest that it is helpful to plan. ‘Fail to plan , plan to fail’.

It has always been my contention that Vlad is a gambler. He’d rather act than do nothing in certain circumstances.
It is impossible to believe that Trump has the measure of the man in the context of the European and global chess match. That ridiculous flattery of the Russian guy who by the way is one of our great enemies is pathetic for a potential POTUS. It’s almost as if he is building the gallows for Putin to take him down.

Also, how would Trump deal with the supposedly new war strategy of Putin where it’s been said he may have no qualms with introducing nuke weapons in ‘low level’ conflict if he thought it was feasible? Point to ponder in the future of Europe and the US if Trump becomes POTUS.

Reality Check
Guest

Us not agreeing does no mean you can shut me down from commenting about an issue you brought up.

http://www.forwardprogressives.com/debunking-anti-hillary-clinton-myths-lies-conspiracies/

And with humor:

Scandals: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver

Reality Check
Guest
Andy
Guest
General Hungarian judgment polled or to be polled would provide no useful information related to the U.S. Presidential Elections. The political knowledge and comprehension of the factors going into the American mix has no knowledge basis whatsoever. It would be like asking a CAT what it thinks…. In general the Hungarian public has far greater and more immediate problems that here, nobody, just nobody manages to even begin solving. The system here is held together by Heavy Duty EU funding, half of which land up in the pockets of the party croneys and is immediately whisked off-shore. The party is so brash about it, it happens right in the open in front of every person’s eyes. Tenders are won, then days later torn up, with new croneys grabbing at the same spoils. The tug-of-war is getting very evident. Only a total lack of EU HQ inertia, lack of interest, sense of disgust, lack of belief and fear of rocking the boat, need to keep the Western Geopolitics at bay and retain the already invested Western corporate wealth Interests at bay – all these are the reasons that the West lets this highway robbery take place. Sad, Traurig, Szomorúság a mindennap.… Read more »
webber
Guest

You are absolutely right.
The idiocy of Hungarian commentators on American politics is fantastic. A Hungarian historian, Tibor Glant, has collected and published a book full of Hungarian pundits’ stupidities about the US. Really incredible stuff.
Many (most?) Hungarians aren’t even aware of term limits. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard Hungarians wonder why President Obama has been “dumped” by the Democratic Party.
With the exception of two US specialists, no Hungarian I have ever met understood the presidential elections. And absolutely no Hungarian I have ever met comprehended the differences between American states (not uncommon: some people here weren’t aware that many US states have regular referenda), although more and more Hungarians seem to have some glimmer of comprehension that there are important differences. Knowing you don’t know is far better than assuming you do.

Steven Colman
Guest

Is it possible that commentators in Hungary watched a different Presidential debate in which “Donald” won against “Secretary Clinton”? That would explain why anyone watching could possibly credit Mr. Trump with being ahead of Hillary. No one could be that insensitive watching Trump’s defeat in most of the arguments, unless the person is a relation of his or being keen of a Trump Presidency as is President (or is it Prime Minister this week) Putin and Mrs Orban, Vona and some others who believe the BS emanating from that guy, who has some difficulties with truth. Mrs. Clinton is not always truthful herself, but since when is truth part of the specification necessary to be a politician or being President, for that matter.
Let’s wait for the next installment for which Mr. Trump promises to have some juicy details of Bill Clinton’s sex escapades. No doubt Mrs Clinton will have details of Mr Trump’s bed time exploits.
Unfortunately neither party will be able to use videos, although nothing will surprise me in this Election.

Guest

Good to have you back, Steven! Hope you’re doing ok.
“The Explanation” is still one of my favourites …

e-1956
Guest

Steven, our first task is to get things straight. The Russian state is a problem for the whole world. It has been and will be until the Russian people can be liberated from their tyrants finally.

The genocides of Asia, and Africa could have happened from Cambodia to Ogaden only because the Active Measures people poured fuel on fires of local conflicts.

Clinton and Obama kept silent and sacrificed millions of lives in a criminal fashion.

The Republicans have to learn from their mistakes and reshape the plans. We need effective straight plans to reduce this deep crisis.

Guest

Are you crazy?

It’s always “Clinton and Obama ” – Bush family? The warmongers par excellence …

Observer
Guest

Let’s admit that it is difficult to see the world from Felcsut , even if standing on one’s toes. Hence the failure of almost all foreign policy moves. The only thing Orban got right was the he can get away with thieving the EU money.
The regime’s outlets are practically rooting for a US withdrawal in isolation and for the EU retreat so clearing the few existing checks and facilitating the establishment of Orban’s open dictatorship. The fact that such retreats would also enable Russia to extend and strengthen its influence doesn’t seem to bother our little dictator, he was conditioned in the USSR and satellites system.
The Hungarian future is back.

Alex Kuli
Guest

OT:
Former SZDSZ MP Istvan Meszaros has announced he’s quitting the Hungarian Helsinki Committee and throwing his weight behind Orban’s anti-refugee referendum.

Meszaros made his announcement on Vigazo!, a Zionist blog affiliated with the Hit Gyulekezete, the charismatic Christian church where he is a longtime member. The news comes a week after ex-SZDSZer Peter Hack, a founding member of the Helsinki Committee and a deacon at the Hit, announced he, too, would cast his lot with the Orbanites on the refugee issue.

I interviewed Meszaros twice in the 1990s and I considered him to be a decent, forcefully intelligent man. His news comes as a disappointment.

For those who read Hungarian:
http://vigyazo.blog.hu/2016/09/27/_kilepek_a_magyar_helsinki_bizottsagbol

I find it amazing how Meszaros’ arguments mirror Orban’s.

Guest

Me too. Another ‘democrat’ has converted and flown the coop.

In my opinion if Mr. Meszaros is a truly a ‘democrat’ he is not working hard enough to deal with the tremendous challenges he notes for Europe and Magyarorszag. His noted concern for human rights is frankly disingenuous when he seems to have a hard time assigning other kinds of solutions which signal a continuing runoff of ‘nems’ when it comes to the migrant issue. Magyarorszag… In a purely negative state.. Orban in the land of Nem.

LwiiH
Guest
webber
Guest

Bwahahahaaaaaa!!!!
Those are not “snap polls” they are online polls. And what is the difference?
Read up:
http://www.dailydot.com/layer8/trump-clinton-debate-online-polls-4chan-the-donald/

You cannot trust an online poll, ever.

Properly conducted polls are all showing that Clinton won the debate.

Alex Kuli
Guest

YouGov’s assessment of online polls ahead of the Brexit vote:

“The online polls in this referendum, of which more than half were by YouGov, were the only piece of information informing the world of the correct risk of a Brexit throughout the campaign… Every other source of information suggested that a victory for Remain was a done deal – only the online polls revealed the true state of the race. The real story of this campaign is that not enough attention was paid to good polls, not the reverse.”

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/28/online-polls-were-right/

webber
Guest

You or others have posted that already. I’ve read it.
Read the article above and see for yourself.

webber
Guest

Since you care – the online polls cited by the Daily Mail above had no screening. Anyone could vote on them, and for many of them multiple voting by one individual was possible. Indeed, for some voting by people outside the US was possible.

By contrast, You Gov has a screening process which makes it more like a regular poll, only one that is taken online.
I quote from You Gov’s website:
“How does YouGov conduct Public Opinion research?
YouGov conducts its public opinion surveys online using something called Active Sampling for the overwhelming majority of its commercial work, including all nationally and regionally representative research. The emphasis is always on the quality of the sample, rather than the quantity of respondents.
When using Active Sampling, restrictions are put in place to ensure that only the people contacted are allowed to participate. This means that all the respondents who complete YouGov surveys will have been selected by YouGov, from our panel of registered users, and only those who are selected from this panel are allowed to take part in the survey.”

Guest

Yes, I looked at one of these “online polls” – and the comments from the Trumpistas were unbelievably ugly!

And then I voted too – without any problem …

Alex Kuli
Guest

It wasn’t I who posted that earlier.

I’m just not sure that we can safely say, “You cannot trust an online poll, ever.” As you note, YouGov uses a safer methodology for online polls.

A friend of mine is one of the chief statisticians for the Pew Research Center. She tells me the entire polling industry is in an upheaval right now because of cell phones, the dwindling popularity of landline phones, caller ID and Skype. It is now much more difficult to define a satisfactory methodology for achieving accuracy.

I was as surprised as anyone else to see that online polls were the most accurate forecasters of the Brexit vote.

webber
Guest
I stand by my words – online polls are inaccurate. YouGov isn’t an “online poll” – at least not in the sense that others are. Yes, it takes data online – but that is where the similarity ends. Saying YouGov’s poll is like other online polls is like saying a brand new Ferrari and a your kid’s little red wagon are comparable. So it wasn’t “the online polls” that were accurate about Brexit, but only YouGov’s online polls, which incorporate traditional poll-taking methodology to try to get an accurate picture, including screening participants very heavily. Other online polls screen nobody and nothing (see Wolfi’s comment, above – he’s a German citizen living in Hungary). I’m sure your Pew person knows of the recent studies showing that when they know they can be identified, Americans are more honest in email than they are talking on the phone or face-to-face. This came as a surprise to many. Seeking social approval clearly plays a role. And yes, that could suggest (against everything I have argued here) that people in some areas are lying about voting for Trump because they are embarrassed to do so in public, while in other areas the same may… Read more »
Guest

On surveys and polls, I remember at a time of having a discussion on ‘samples’ and it was told to me: ‘Look we do the best we can but only God can create a truly random sample…;-)….One example of the marriage of realist philosophy and mathematics in our world.

LwiiH
Guest

online polls are indeed crap…. but it’s interesting that all of the online polling puts Trump in the W column. I listened to a History prof yesterday (CBC As It Happens) that developed a set of indicators that he’s used to successfully predict the outcome of every presidential election since 1984. The indicators suggest that Trump should win, a predication he wasn’t thrilled about.

e-1956
Guest

I am moderately happy with Trump’s victory forecasting.

Americans and Hungarians should get rid of ideas planted by the Active Measures crime lab.

The Clintons, Bushes, Obamas walked into all traps set by the Kremlin.

Let us hope that a new staff will end of being duped.

PS Greetings from Greek territories.

pappp
Guest
Guest

I read that too and found it very funny!

Totally OT (or not?):
Late in 1998 I was on holiday in Florida with my first wife and on election day I wanted to see people’s reaction – so I said to my wife: let’s go into a bar and have a look …

We were staying in a motel and had to drive to a sports bar where we found the usual more than a dozen tv screens, most of them showing different sports activities to the people assembled.

One screen showed the progress of the election – if I remember correctly it was soon very clear that Bush had an overwhelming majority – even before the election was finished on the West Coast.

But nobody reacted to it – all the people in the bar except us two foreigners ignored it – it felt really strange!

webber
Guest

Sometimes polls haven’t even closed in the West when the results are announced. This used to happen to Alaskans and Hawaiians at almost every election. I don’t know if it still does.

Member

“But nobody reacted to it – all the people in the bar except us two foreigners ignored it – it felt really strange!”

Perhaps because there was no Presidential election in 1998?

You might be thinking of the 1996 election, when Bill Clinton gained a huge victory over Dole.

But you almost certainly aren’t referring to the 2000 election – at no point did Bush ever gain an “overwhelming majority” over Gore. It was one of the closest elections in history electorally, Bush lost the popular vote, and of course that Florida result was disputed for weeks.

Guest

Shoopy, I’m sorry – of course it was 1988, Bush’s landslide victory against Dukakis with 426 electoral votes against 111. …

It was my first holiday in the USA with my first wife – so I should have known better

Reality Check
Guest

Those polls are un-scientific. Anyone can vote in them and Trump supporters were encouraged to go tho those polls and up-vote Trump.

Lackó L.
Guest
My hunch is that most Hungarians would vote for Trump. Just as Putin is more popular in Hungary than Merkel is. Hungary is not the liberal coastal state or a western state with lots of Latino immigrants. Hungary is a conservative country with lots of frustrated people with lots of losers of globalization. Rational arguments don’t work. Hillary is branded as a liberal (despite her very hawkish policies) and is a women. And I think Hungarians are more ready to accept a black man (actually biracial and even his father was from East Africa whereas most slaves in the US were from West Africa) in a position of real power but not a women who is said to be a – gasp – feminist and – oh no – a liberal. I sure hope Clinton wins though because Trump will sell Hungary and the CEE to Russia in a heartbeat and thereby empowering Orban who is already unbelievably entrenched. I still haven’t given up hope that at one point some American security people persuade Trump to resign and get lost while he can. After all as some wise American man once said “the Constitution is not a suicide pact”. If… Read more »
Guest

“No, old school stuff like nukes, the secret services, surveillance and death threats still count and will forever do so.”

So, let us look at the nuke statistics:

Russia 7300
USA 6970
France 300
China 260
UK 215
Pakistan 130
India 120
Israel 80
N.Korea <15
Soros 0

tappanch
Guest

The ballots of more than a quarter (26.8% or 73,569) of the Serbian and Transylvanian voters have arrived at the Election Bureau as of yesterday, September 27.

30.2% of these ballots were dropped off at consulates and arrived in bulk on a single day, on September 26.

Orban has given 50 billion forints to a Serbian Hungarian organization VMSz (1.6 million per registered voter in Serbia)

In return, VMSz handles the voters’ data and the votes ….

http://444.hu/2016/09/28/a-lustabb-fideszesek-is-megirigyelnek-azt-a-tempot-amivel-a-szerbiai-magyaroknak-toljak-a-kvotakampanyt

tappanch
Guest

Fidesz created the entire mail-in system to be wide open to Fidesz fraud.

The dead can vote (if somebody is on the roster, there is no way to take him/her off), the Fidesz front organizations can vote for the voter.

You do not have to give your real address at registration (more than 100,000 or 36.3% gave only an e-mail address.

Here is an example of a voter, who always lived inside Hungary, suddenly received an e-mail that he was registered by this e-mail for a mail-in ballot, although he is not eligible to and he requested NO such thing !

http://eszon.hu/index.php/world-news/81-ez-toertent/29289-pikans-honositasi-uegy-a-nepszavazas-eltt

pappp
Guest

Anne Applebaum:

“When reading news reports this morning, remember that Cameron also “won” several Brexit debates.”

webber
Guest

I also remember that Anne Applebaum got quite a few American elections wrong, and that she backed Orbán for a long, long time.

pappp
Guest

Thanks, I didn’t know she backed Orban. I can understand why she may have disliked MSZP but to actually back Orban and his party? To me that’s an egregious error in judgment to say the least. Fundamentally questions her competence. I’m not a dedicated fan of hers, just came across her twit (otherwise I don’t follow twits) and I liked it. It’s certainly much better the situation compared to a scenario in which Trump was seen as the winner. In the first Obama reelection debate by far Romney was seen as the winner, but Clinton does not enjoy the same trust as Obama did. That said, Clinton cannot rest.

webber
Guest

You’re right. Clinton cannot rest, and unfortunately Clinton is a lousy speaker. Gyula (above) is also right. There are legitimate concerns about Clinton’s record. But Trump is so much more awful that there is no real comparison. Clinton is such a poor speaker that I was worried before the debate. I think she did very well in it, but what I think doesn’t matter. What matters is what the majority of Americans think.

Applebaum was an apologist for Orbán for quite some time. She swallowed the idiocy about Fidesz being anti-communist (where is lustration?) and “not really” being anti-semitic or racist, and kept to that for many years. She finally realized she was wrong sometime after a talk she gave in Budapest where Schöpflin treated her badly. I have no idea if Schöpflin’s arrogance was what turned her, or whether it helped to get her to look at the evidence with open eyes.

webber
Guest

Nate Silver accurately predicted American election results in 2008 and 2012. So, let’s see how he thinks the election looks now:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

pappp
Guest

The numbers unfortunately suggest a practical tossup. 55-45/53-47. That’s terrible for Clinton and a huge result for Trump who was dismissed as un-electable, unfit, going against the Republican establishment, spending much less than Clinton does etc. Both Florida and Ohio seems to be leaning Trump, not good.

The prediction markets are a bit better:

https://www.predictit.org/Browse/MostPredicted

webber
Guest

55-45/53-47 is not a “practical toss up” in the American election. It could be a landslide for Clinton.

In 2012 Obama took 51% of the vote, while Romney took 47% (2% went to other candidates).

However, it is perfectly possible to win the popular vote and lose the election (take enough large states, and lose all the rest).

And you’re right about the states. Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, NC, Nevada and one or two other states are real battlegrounds. It could be very close.

pappp
Guest

I think you don’t interpret the numbers well. Silver’s numbers suggest the probability of winning that is reaching the necessary number of delegates. It could be via a landslide or even via losing the popular vote (all these scenarios are factored into the current headline figure of 55-45).

As of today the two candidates have almost equal chances of winning the majority of delegates, though Clinton is slightly ahead.

Actually her probabilities are only 55% while she leads the popular vote by some 2% exactly because she probably has excess voters in I guess California and NY while she seems to be losing OH and Florida just by a bit (but losing many delegates thereby).

My guess is that the numbers (55%) are this” good” because PA is still leaning Clinton even if by a bit. If PA started leaning Trump just by an inch (maybe reducing but still allowing Clinton to lead the popular vote) this would reduce Clinton’s paths to victory very significantly (because of the number of delegates PA has) and thus she would significantly drop below 50% probability .

webber
Guest

Fair enough.
Here’s another poll – 51% Clinton, 13% toss up, 36% Trump:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/elections

Guest

The blue/red graph in this forecast reminds me strongly of the obesity belt formerly known as the bible belt.

webber
Guest
Well… there is some correlation… There is also a rural-urban divide, a traditional south-traditional northerner divide, and in some parts of the South and West a white-minority divide. Naturally, this is not fool proof – some urban areas “act” rural, and vice versa. Anyway, the southern states N. Carolina and Florida have a lot of people originally from the North who have moved south for the climate, or whatever (all of the US is changing dramatically), which at least partly explains why they look different from the rest of the South. States with heavy urban concentrations tend to go for Democrats, even while most counties in those states vote Republican. So, on the map below (2012 elections), look at the area around Puget Sound and down the coast in Washington State (upper far left corner of US map), and the two blue counties opposite Portland, Oregon. Those are the most urbanized parts of Washington state. Those parts are all blue. The rest of the state – the majority of landmass – is red. But because the majority of the population lives in blue areas, Washington is solidly Democrat even now. A majority of Mexican Americans, in value structure, tend to… Read more »
bimbi
Guest

A comprehensive and fair coverage of the Hungarian media response to the Trump/Clinton “debate”; thank you Prof. Balogh. Alas, speculation about winners and losers in this crazy election year is just that because there is only one debate that counts – the one that goes on inside the heads of voters in November. I have a good and respected friend in the US who has been telling me for months that Trump is “toast”, but it ain’t happened yet. As they say in baseball – “It ain’t over till its over” and this year, especially not.

Forza Clinton!

pappp
Guest

Istvan Pukli is leaving Tanítanék movement.

I think the future is bright for him in NER (ie the System of National Cooperation which is the official name of Hungary’s political system).

If I was a Fidesz politician I would hire him into a mid-level government position which still pays 3 times as much as his current salary.

http://444.hu/2016/09/28/pukli-istvan-otthagyja-a-tanitanek-mozgalmat-mert-a-szervezet-kiallt-a-menekultek-mellet

Alex Kuli
Guest

More proof, in case we needed it, that Orban’s opponents are incapable of launching a united front.
It seems like the minute a Hungarian opposition figure has to swallow something they don’t agree with, they grab their toys and go home. “Taking one for the team” is a foreign concept.

webber
Guest

Only Pukli wasn’t on any “team,” as far as I know. He said he wasn’t, anyway.
They may have something on him. They may have offered him a cushy job as pappp suggests. He may have discovered he has a terminal illness. He may have falling in love with dahlia gardening. Seems silly to speculate.

Alex Kuli
Guest

“Pukli wasn’t on any “team.'”

He wasn’t a leader of the Tanitanek movement?
Hmmm… I’m pretty sure he was.

“Seems silly to speculate.”

So don’t speculate, then.
There are endless examples of the Orban opponents quitting whenever their group adopts a position that doesn’t strike their fancy. I’m sure I do not have to enumerate them for you.

webber
Guest

By “team” I thought you meant political party.
“Tanítanék” doesn’t have much to help those who “take one” for them (in your terms.)
I didn’t speculate at all – unless you include my dahlia gardening idea, which is original and seems most likely.

Istvan
Guest

Here is the official response of Tanítanék, issued a short while ago https://www.facebook.com/notes/tan%C3%ADtan%C3%A9k/a-tan%C3%ADtan%C3%A9k-mozgalom-k%C3%A9pvisel%C5%91inek-nyilatkozata/1592925207670789

My impression is that the movement was blind sided by Pukli’s move. I think its hard to argue that his leaving and where he went isn’t a death blow to Tanítanék. Its not surprising given the weakness of the actions Tanítanék supported over the last year and its strained relationship with the two major teacher’s unions.

webber
Guest

Somewhere I read that Pukli said he decided to leave when his colleagues at Tanítanék decided to take a position on the referendum and to take part in a protest against it. Though it is irrelevant, I agree with Pukli on that, not because I don’t think the referendum is ridiculous and disgusting (I do), but because by getting involved in this side issue the teachers can only lose sympathizers, and members. A lot of teachers who are angry about conditions in schools might want to vote “no” on the referendum.
Also, I can’t get over the thought that the idea to protest against the referendum was a sort of internal wrecking job by secret Fideszniks in Tanítanék (or provokáció in Hungarian). It’s just such a stupid step to take. Still, human stupidity is boundless, so… perhaps I shouldn’t be so suspicious all the time?

webber
Guest

Alex… can’t help but notice: Are you denouncing Pukli here?
Someone leaves the movement, and you already know they have been bought off? He can’t really win with you, can he?

Alex Kuli
Guest

What on earth? When did I say he had been bought off? How can my comments be interpreted as a denunciation?

I simply commented that this is yet another example of pouty-pants Hungarian politicians failing to get their act together.

Pukli’s departure may not be the death knell for Tanitanek, but it depends entirely on their next move. It certainly does not look good when a six-month old movement splits over an issue that is not central to their mission.

Alex Kuli
Guest

Sorry — “former politician,” who is now a pouty-pants activist who claims to have no political allegiances.

Istvan
Guest

Eva’s blog is indeed reflecting the current discussions going on in Hungary about Pukli. There are hundreds of comments about this in social media, one teacher who openly opposed the Fidesz referendum and supported the movement taking a stand on the issue wrote: “Pukli már zsebben van a Fidesznek régóta!” This is not an isolated opinion apparently from what I have been reading.

Clearly Pukli is a strange educational bureaucrat who did indeed have ties to Fidez having voted for them in 2010 and 2014 according to his own statement that appeared in Origo . Given how young Pukli is he had a very good position at a well regarded school in Budapest. I suspect he got carried away with his own notoriety and made some statements at rallies against Orban’s rule that he had second thoughts about once he realized how difficult it was going to be to defeat Fidesz on educational issues.

webber
Guest

OT – Looks like Fidesz manipulated a recent election in Croatia.
Talk about interfering in internal politics! The next time anyone in Hungary complains that foreigners are interfering in Hungary’s business….
http://index.hu/kulfold/2016/09/28/kamumagyarokkal_bundazhattak_meg_a_horvat_valasztast/

tappanch
Guest

Global Competitiveness Report 2016.

EU member states.

4. Netherlands 5.57

19. Austria 5.22
31. Czechia 4.72
36. Poland 4.56

50. Bulgaria 4.44
56. Slovenia 4.39
62. Romania 4.30
65. Slovakia 4.28.

69. Hungary 4.20
74. Croatia 4.15
83. Cyprus 4.04
86. Greece 4.00

page xiii
http://www3.weforum.org/docs/GCR2016-2017/05FullReport/TheGlobalCompetitivenessReport2016-2017_FINAL.pdf

tappanch
Guest

LA TImes consistently shows more support for Trump than most other polls.

Trump : Clinton

2016-09-28: 46.7% : 42.6%
2016-09-27: 46.2%: 42.7%
2016-09-26: 46.3%: 42.4%
2016-09-25: 46.4%: 42.3%
2016-09-24: 45.3%: 43.3%
2016-09-23: 44.8%: 43.4%

http://www.latimes.com/politics/

The debate did not change the opinions.

Why the USC/L.A. Times tracking poll differs from other surveys

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-polling-differences-20160809-snap-story.html

tappanch
Guest

Electoral college:

Clinton wins, 55.2%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Guest

You know the Clinton-Trump face-off isn’t so far out of line where Magyars can’t see the similarities where those who go for the greatest seat of the nation are seen as individuals earning hatred and vilification. I’d think they can empathize. They’ll know more about this once again in the next election. Well unless the opposition can find a candidate who doesn’t suffer from grave original sins.

And the Magyar anti-American pundits…
If their drumbeats rise higher for Trump and throwing the US aside Magyars may wake one day wishing they didn’t listen to those who promulgate behavior which weakens that ‘Atlanticist’ bond. Their fidelity to Fidesz under the circumstances will then jeopardize their whole future as a country in Europe.

Member

May I ask, why does anyone think that the President of the USA is a good entry level position to the USA government?

Also, to those who just cannot get over the Hillary emails. http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-jeb-bush-lie-florida-casino-gambling-502144

szászrégen visszatér
Guest
szászrégen visszatér

OT, Hunor Kelemen leader of RMDSZ the big ethnic Hungarian party in Romania is also pushing Hungarian Romanians to vote.

Although he is not directing ethnic Hungarians how to vote he says that he would vote No which is in line with Fidesz’ expectations.

In effect RMDSZ is campaigning for Fidesz.

Istvan
Guest
Responding to Eva’s post directly. I find it odd that the Hungarian media concerns itself with the horse race aspects of the Clinton Trump debate as opposed to how clearly the NATO issue was framed in the debate which has the greatest implications for Hungary and all of Europe. Clinton correctly baited Trump on his failure to support our treaty obligations, in particular the principle of collective defense as enshrined in Article 5 of the Washington Treaty. I am in agreement with Sec Clinton on this issue completely, but clearly Trump was not and he made that clear indirectly citing the failure of so many NATO nations to make their defense spending at 2 percent of GDP. I know a retired Brigadier Generals who is supporting Mr. Trump and his position on withdrawing from NATO is actually inconsistent with the perspectives of Mr. Trump. When I pointed this out to him, his response was Trump would likely become much more “practical” once elected. But he is a hard core Republican and none the less has endorsed Trump. Retired Gen. Wesley Clark, former Supreme Allied Commander, has been unrelenting in his criticism of Trump on this issue. Some of his comments… Read more »
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