How far is Kötcse from Brussels? Very far

Fidesz public relations gurus discovered early in the game that a party needs certain fixed points or anchors in order to radiate an aura of continuity, steadiness, and stability. Once they hit upon the idea of spending a long weekend with young Hungarians in Romania, where they were supposed to discuss their common problems and hopes, they faithfully kept returning, year after year. Admittedly, over the last 28 years the youthful and perhaps even exciting exchange of ideas has become stale, and the event has been more or less reduced to some dull speeches by the same three or four party and government leaders to which mostly older retirees listen. But the event is still held and still creates expectations in the media.

The gathering at Băile Bálványos/Bálványosfűrdő has become a ritual, just as has Viktor Orbán’s annual February speech on “the state of the country.” The party leader/prime minister will deliver that speech, rain or shine, before an invited audience. The opposition papers will claim that Orbán’s speeches are becoming increasingly shallow, which is true. But the quality of the speech is of less importance than the fact that this past February was the nineteenth year that Viktor Orbán stood in front of all those flags and basked in the adoration of his audience. After the event, journalists usually ask people who are leaving the building about their impressions. They invariably find the message uplifting. Moreover, these people were personally invited to the speech, and one can tell that they found that invitation priceless.

Finally, there is the picnic at Kötcse with a history of 16 years. Every September select individuals are invited to attend the picnic where Viktor Orbán shares his visions and plans with his devoted supporters. An invitation to Kötcse is a true honor for several reasons. First, there is the aura of secrecy. The media is locked out, and participants are told not to share anything that happened there. Second, the invited guests are not passive observers as they are at the “state of the country” speech. Here they can ask questions and mingle with high party officials. They can feel part of the family, which must be a truly uplifting experience for many. The few attendees who said anything at all about the picnic emphasized their awe at receiving “the great honor” of an invitation.

What did we learn about this year’s gathering at Kötcse? Not much. I listened to an interview with Zsolt Jeszenszky, the wayward son of Géza Jeszenszky, former foreign minister and ambassador to the United States, who, unlike his father, is a great admirer of Viktor Orbán. According to him, Orbán’s speech lasted an hour and a half and was absolutely brilliant. Orbán’s knowledge of world affairs is phenomenal, but he is also thoroughly at home in the smallest details of domestic affairs. The man is simply amazing.

Otherwise, János Csontos wrote an opinion piece in Magyar Idők in which, somewhat obliquely, he let his readers in on some of the details of the gathering. First, he severely criticized those journalists who created “fake news” about the picnic when they had no first-hand knowledge. After a fairly lengthy introduction he allowed his readers to get a feel for the atmosphere of the gathering. In Csontos’s opinion, Kötcse is a place where “a mutual test takes place between the powers-that-be and the intelligentsia.” Orbán wants to know whether the “moonbow” is still with him, while the members of the intelligentsia want to know whether “Viktor Orbán is still in his right mind.” Csontos was happy to announce that there is nothing wrong on this front. Orbán is as sharp as always. As for the elite supporters, an odd sentence gives pause for thought. “There were times when the refined audience and the army of those with questions no longer wanted to hear the truth, the facts.” What does this mean? They didn’t quite believe Orbán’s worldview?

Orbán must have spent time on his future priorities: innovation, organization of the nation (nemzetszervezés), building up the army, and the demographic situation. Of these four, the one that worries me most is the “organization of the nation.” My problem, of course, is that I don’t have the foggiest idea what it could possibly mean, but at the same time I have the nagging feeling that whatever it is, it means something undemocratic and perhaps even sinister. Perhaps some kind of reorganization of society under state supervision. If that is the case, it reminds me of fascism.

HVG published a series of photos of the arriving guests under the title: “It is as far as Kötcse is from Brussels. Take a look at the elite of NER!” Well, first an explanation. There is a saying in Hungarian, “It is as far as Makó is from Jerusalem,” meaning very, very far. We are not sure of the origin of the saying, but most likely it has nothing to do with the city of Makó but perhaps refers to a medieval knight of the same name who never managed to get to Jerusalem. NER stands for “Nemzeti Együttműködés Rendszere,” i.e., the Orbán regime. HVG’s staff was obviously not impressed by what they saw.

And that takes me to an interview with Tamás Deutsch, one of the founders of Fidesz and currently a member of the European Parliament. He was among those featured in HVG‘s photo gallery. In his youth Deutsch was the darling of older women, who thought he was the cutest boy in all of Hungary. As you can see on the photo, he has lost his charm in the intervening years. The interview that appeared in Magyar Idők is a series of complaints about the West, where “the older member states consider themselves superior, more European than those who joined the Union in 2004 or after. They expropriated the representation of the so-called European values and they don’t understand or don’t even want to understand East-Central Europe.” Dutch Ambassador Gajus Scheltema’s criticism is typical of the widespread belief in the western part of Europe that “they are the sons and daughters of the developed West who can do anything in the wild east.”

Tamás Deutsch and László L. Simon, a poet

András Lánczi, political philosopher and Sebastian Gorka’s dissertation adviser

As for the differences that currently exist between East and West, Deutsch contends that the blame clearly falls on the West. “The politicians of the 15 member states thought that they were ready for the accession of the underdeveloped new members, but this was not the case. Therefore, the majority of the current problems derive from that fact. The new member states were much better prepared politically, psychologically, and socially.” What can one say? Blaming others while claiming superiority over them seems to be a favorite pastime in Hungary.

September 5, 2017
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Martin
Guest

Orban is a radical, conservative, anti-democratic revolutionary.

Of course he has a plan to “reorganize the nation”. He is working 24/7 to eradicate “liberals”, anything which might be deemed “liberal” or pro-Western.

Fidesz always had a penchant for setting up compulsory chambers for various professions (aka corporatism).

Newly introduced compulsory membership in the gazdasági kamarák (business chambers for business entities), new compulsory chambers for agricultural entities, new compulsory chamber for all teachers, a brand new chamber for all psychologists, setting up compulsory chambers for doctors which were abolished by the Socialists and so on. Of course the chambers (and thus the members) are controlled by reliable Fideszniks.

These are all nation-wide power networks whose existence are extremely helpful for a political party when operating a national political infrastructure. Needless to say the left-wing lacks the control of any such power networks entirely.

Observer
Guest

Martin

Orban is a radical, accidental fascist and imho he should not be referred to as conservative.
It is a worthy, respectable political orientation, or at least used to be before Tea Party and Trump.
I am with them on many issues, so I know. On the Hun (fascist) background I look like an out and out liberal, I suppose.

tappanch
Guest

This is 7-month old article, but it is still relevant:

“Is there a ‘videokompromat’ at Putin about the leader of Hungary?”

suitcase filled with money … [mafioso] Semyon Mogilyevich … Clodo … Orban

http://theins.ru/korrupciya/43801

https://atlatszo.hu/2017/02/14/valtozatok-egy-kompromatra/

Observer
Guest

Hungarian translation of the Insider/Anastasia Kirilenko’s article:

https://www.facebook.com/attila.arakovacs.1/posts/10155723351694838?pnref=story

ambator
Member

It is a source of actual mental pain to look at these pigs, representing the elite! of this system and of this regime

Member

@ambator, please don’t liken the all-too-human psychopaths of Orban to pigs, who are even more tragic victims than the Hungarians that these Fidesz monsters are exploiting and oppressing.
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Ferenc
Guest

For not-Hungarian speakers: “NER stands for “Nemzeti Együttműködés Rendszere””
It literally means “National Co-operation System”, looks promising, isn’t it?
Well as usual in the current government’s practice this NER doesn’t come close to it’s name, but simply comes down to ‘the nation’ being limited to ‘OV nodders’ only, so “Fidesz And Nothing Else System” or as explained in the post: “the Orban regime”.
For who’s interested, the original 2010 parliamentary statement about NER (in Hungarian) is archived at https://web.archive.org/web/20110124132442/http://www.kormany.hu/download/d/56/00000/politikai_nyilatkozat.pdf
It’s header: “Legyen béke, szabadság és egyetértés.”
“Let there be peace, freedom and unison.”
Well 7 years on Hungary under OV&Co seems pretty far away from this…and don’t come with blaming that on outside forces… it’s simply from within the country… and more specifically OV’s head…

Ferenc
Guest

More “NER – Nemzeti Együttműködés Rendszere” (started in 2010)
pdf: http://2010-2014.kormany.hu/download/c/27/10000/a%20nemzeti%20egy%C3%BCttm%C5%B1k%C3%B6d%C3%A9s%20programja.pdf
html: http://amexrap.org/kormanyprogram2010

Let’s check one by one the main items:
1.talpra állítsuk a magyar gazdaságot – ECONOMY
results: questionable to say the least, e.g.comparing V4 for GDP per capita (available data 2010-15) HU down from 3rd to 4th place*
2.újra rend legyen az országban – ORDER
results: NOT succeeded, e.g.’equal justice under law’ (what? 2017 in Hungary? you gotta be joking); increasing demonstrations against government policies
3.megmentsük az egészségügyet – HEALTHCARE
results: NOT succeeded, just ask around on Hungarian streets, further proof “Euro Health Consumer Index” by ‘healthpowerhouse’, 2010-16 in V4 HU down from 2nd to only just above 4th place*
4.megteremtsük a szociális biztonságot – SOCIAL SECURITY
results: succeeded in ONE item(of their own list), being support of sports (building stadiums, int.championships), only the olympics didn’t work out
5.helyreállítsuk a demokratikus normákat – DEMOCRACY – RULE OF LAW
results: NOT succeeded, even for outsiders (e.g.the EU) it is absolutely clear that the opposite is true, it’s il-everything

Conclusion: overall none to very limited improvements achieved, clearly ‘positive’ only the new Sport STADIUMS (hajra…)

NER posts from the past on Hungarian Spectrum
2010.May, reactions: http://hungarianspectrum.org/2010/05/19/reactions-to-the-proclamation-of-national-cooperation/
2010.Jul about proclamation: http://hungarianspectrum.org/2010/07/03/orbans-proclamation-of-national-cooperation-on-every-wall/
2010.Jul reactions: http://hungarianspectrum.org/2010/07/05/the-manifesto-of-national-cooperation-fidesz-government-shot-itself-in-the-foot/

Note: * various V4 comparisons see my url – https://infogr.am/ferenc__

Observer
Guest

It is depressing to see what are the Orban faithful feeding on – the Magyar Idők article is basically a propaganda rant against everyone and everything: the suicidal West, the „market flies” reporters and their „provocations” (i.e. asking Qs. , taking photos), there’s some Guyrcsány, the Soros paid „saboteur agents”, etc.
Not fake news, it’s a whole, surreal fake world there, very much like the Communist press, say 1950-60s.
Add some odes to the leader:
„Such a politician leads the country, who, without any illusions, sees the prospects of Europe and the world for 2020, 2030 and 2050.” OMG, this after his constant failures in international politics, culminating in becoming Putin’s client)
And “Orbán is one of Europe’s rare realpolitic-ians, some of who’s findings (“we never came so close to working out (meghaladás?!) of Trianon as we are today”) and the visionary motive (of “Central state of the Carpathian Basin”, “the leading state of the region”) are music to Hungarian ears.”
Nonsensical pipe dreams aside, note the amazing logic – he’s a fantastic politician, because his BS is music to our years !?

old1956
Guest

To Observer, would you underwrite my observation on the Russian active measures?
The propaganda themes of the regime are such classics that it is easy to recognize as imports from Moscow.
This very same cancer has been spreading to Venezuela, Yemen, Syria, Iran, all unfortunate accidental customers of Moscow.

Observer
Guest

Sorry, don’t know enough about them. If u have any links, incl. in Russian I would be interested. Tnx.

old1956
Guest

Please read wikipedia:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Active_measures

A “theory of active measures”

Observer
Guest

Tnx. I know that.
I’ll have a look myself if there is something new, specific.

Mihaly
Guest

This is such a laughable sentence : “The new member states were much better prepared politically, psychologically, and socially.” When especially Hungary has been reinventing itself politically, psychologically, and socially completely since they joined in 2004. It can only mean that if Hungary was ready for the EU in 2004 it is surely not fitting in anymore after all that has been changed.

Observer
Guest

The only information given by the MI article is a single sentence about “the vision of the four-dimensional change (innovation, national organization, army building and demography).”

The only part of some interest is the “innovation”.
Until now the Orban regime has cut back on or strangled almost all technical, scientific, educational progress or innovation by politicizing, centralizing and subjugating the institutions, by cutting the higher education spending and by practically chasing away the best and brightest.
I suppose Orban either shared some pipe dreams about the future, or spoke about his mythical “unorthodox”, new approaches in the Hungarian politics or economy. With the “most transparent government” (no pun, the man said it) we never know?

The “national organization, army building and demography” part is pretty much the mix of the fascist and communist movements, although the army element is total nonsense in the international situation of our times. Except if used for the purpose of maintaining the state of constant struggle, permanent revolution, i.e. for the justification of internal vigilance, surveillance and repression.

Ceterum censeo: It is fascism, folks.

wrfree
Guest

Considering VO’s ‘turn’ he’s proved he’s one of the worst democrats. If it’s fascism then Europe’s looking at a leader that could just be a worse fascist with his country smelling like rotting cabbage. Ugh.

Observer
Guest

Orban was never a democrat, to use his slip of tongue – he didn’t have a problem with the (communist) system, but with the people running it, it was reported.
I don’t base my opinion on this however, but on the observation, press and information from the books of J.Debreceni.
Orban is just an intelligent, half educated provincial guy with huge chips on both shoulders, who was totally immoral and unscrupulous with no ideology but “me”, just like Cseausescu or Zhivkov. He succeeded only due to his symbiotsis with Simicska, otherwise he would faded out as another tricky bullshitter.

Member

@Observer, I am always perplexed when anyone describes Orban as intelligent. Some even believe of Trump: These are just psychopaths who instinctively channel the worst in people to arouse a following. It is not intelligence to be perfectly comfortable with piercing people in the eye or groin. It is simply the inborn lack of the scruples that keep most people (moderately) honest.

old1956
Guest

To Observer, you can see yourself very clearly that this nonsense regime is surviving and ruling only by Russian support. What else can explain this wild ride?

Observer
Guest

Stevan

There have been many intelligent villains or devilishly clever psychopaths often bringing their own destruction.

Let’s say Orban is not stupid, if you prefer, his main political quality is feeling the pulse of the retrograde, irredentist, simple or close minded Hungarians.

old1956

Hun has been disliking/hating the Russians for 150 years, e.g. after 1989 significant economic interests were sacrificed on the altar of this sentiments. Orban advanced his career riding this anti-Russian sentiment. Until his u turn in 2008.

I don’t believe there much help from the Russians, none to be seen either. No need for it, I think they have Orban by the b..s with kompromat, but wisely sweeten him with bribes, entangling him even more, so he’ll serve them nicely.

Guest

The European Court has decided against Hungary and Poland in the asylum question – now we have to wait for any financial consquences. Haven’t seen a source in English yet though.
And Mr Juncker wrote a “not so nice” letter to Orbán:
http://www.portfolio.hu/en/economy/juncker_sends_unpleasant_response_to_letter_by_hungarian_pm_orban.34125.html
Interesting times ahead …

Tyrker
Guest

Hungary and Slovakia, wolfi. You do know the difference between Slovakia and Poland, don’t you?

Guest

Thanks for giving me the chance to answer – yes, the procedure was against Hungary and Slovakia, but the Polish government declared the same policies!
And now Slovakia kind of admitted that they were wrong but Poland and Hungary still don’t want to follow theEU laws and rules …
The news in German – not very positive for Orbán and the other fascistoids:
http://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/eu/id_82081554/ungarn-und-slowakei-muessen-fluechtlinge-aufnehmen.html
Again their motto re the EU:
We’re only in it for the money!
Now we’ll have to see whether the EU will stop the money flow – it should have happened much earlier!
PS:
These little Balkan countries are all the same somehow, many people now realise that they shouldn’t have been let into the EU!
PPS:
I know that Slovakia, Hungary and Poland etc consider themselves part of Central Europe – that might be true geographically, but their mindset is still Balkan and at least 50 or maybe 100 years behind the civilis1ed West.
Just ask my wife who has experienced life in the West and the USA with me now …

Jan
Guest

Do you mean the mindset of the regime or the mindset of the people?
I know many people who are eager to develop themselves to have a better future.
A lot of them frustrated because they feel they have no chance or are afraid to stand up and fight the corruption on their workplaces the injustice in the system needing the “right” party membership or “friends” to get a chance to improve.
I recognise this blog is amongst political experts knowing each other or writing amongst each other for a long time.
I certainly have much less knowledge about Hungarian politics.
(Just started to learn).
But I know for sure that many people do not agree with the backward politics of the actual government.

Guest

It’s dangerous to generalise, there are of course people (like my wife and her relatives e g) who are “progressive” – but how many are there?
Once MSZP and SZDS had a majority but now it seems that the reactionaries are back – because people are frustrated or?
It’s difficult to decide.
One problem that Hungary has (interestingly it’s similar in the USA!):
Not enough people go to vote – just around 50%, that’s much too low!
In most democracies it’s 70 – 80%, at least with important elections.
Coupled with strange election laws (and the fact that many vote who don’t live in Hungary and aren’t touched by the Fidesz idiocies) just around 20% (Tyrker might correct me, it’s maybe 25% :)) of the adult population with the right to vote decide on Hungary’s future – just as in the USA …
How many among them are really for Fidesz (and know what’s it all about) and how many are just uninformed country bumpkins (my wife says bunko paraszt)?

Jan
Guest

Thanks for your reply, the facts you stated were already familiar to me. That far I came. And of course this is part of the OV strategy to avoid loosing power.
Still my basic question is not answered with your reply. Do you really think that the EU sho

Jan
Guest
Sorry pushed the wrong spot on my tablet. Seems to live its own life. Do you really think the EU should have refused Hungary because of being old fashioned? Who could see the disastrous development on beforehand at that time? I worked in Hungary several weeks each year since 2001, and remember the optimism from people I met when Hungary became a member in 2004. Much has changed, but not foreseeable imho. I am living microcosm now in Hungary since 2016. No big overview till now. The micrososm, my “group of people” tell me they have a reason not to vote. An example: the prime minister of Hungary was responsible for the shooting in the Budapest riots of 2006. And for lying to the Hungarian people. The next thing the MSZP does, is making him head of party again in 2007, and put him on the list for re-election in the next election. How insensible can you be? Reaction: a lot of people don’t vote. They don’t trust politicians anymore. In Holland there is a saying, it doesn’t matter if you are bit by a day or a dog. Meaning whatever you choose you always are betrayed. And we’re you… Read more »
Guest

Re 2006:
That’s not what happened in 2006! It has been discussed here often – Gyurcsany said “we lied” that implies all politicians lied – just like the Communists when they claimed that they were catching up with Capitalsim before 1989 …
And Fidesz probably organised the storm on the TV building …

Jan
Guest

That’s why I asked yesterday in one thread to give me links about the riots.
The story was not my opinion, but was told to me, like other depressing stories, true or not.
Pity that I didn’t get an answer on my questions about mindset and should have refused Hungary in the EU in 2004.

Observer
Guest

Jan

As a rule: you are better off to believe exactly the opposite of what a fidesznik tells you.

Member

Wolfi – Turnout in Hungarian elections is typically around 2/3 of the electorate. The record (first round) was 71% in 2002, the lowest was 56% in 1998.

Member

It’s not really very useful to describe the Polish as having a ‘Balkan’ mindset – it just displays ignorance on your part. (I might as well say that people in your part of the US have an ‘Asian’ mindset – it doesn’t mean anything.) For one thing, if immigrants are the top story here, they have received much better treatment in the Balkans and much more hate in the eastern EU countries. I think the picture of what has happened to these countries in political terms since joining the EU is mixed – Hungary was surprisingly restrained politicially before 2004 (the first Orbán government was horrible, but even so), while Slovakia wasn’t. I suspect Poland has seen improvements in political outlook since 2004 as well as a more recent decline into authoritarianism. But, in general, the EU has countries on their knees before entry, forcing them to rid themselves of unacceptable practices, corruption, and so on – and then, once they are members, they get away with things prospective members wouldn’t imagine doing.

Webber
Guest

The individual who wrote “Balkan mindset” is a German living in Hungary, so the part of your comment about “your part of the US” was very off. Really the comment should have clued you into the fact that you were not addressing an American. Most Americans would never call any place Balkan, first because most have no idea what that means, and second because even if they do know, the term is not generally used in a pejorative sense in the US. This is a European thing. Otherwise I generally agree with you.

Guest

Webber, I wrote about what Central Europeans perceive as “Balkan” – compared to those Poles Hungarians etc who want to belong to Central Europe but really are not ready – because they don’t accept the Democratic values!
Of course that’s a generalisation again, only valid for some like the Fidesz honchos who really don’t care about democracy and human rights (like the communists which they are imitating in a way).

exTor
Guest

comment image

… GORKA MAGAT … Make America Great Again Trumpist …

http://www.stopthedonaldtrump.com/tag/sebastian-gorka
— Stop The Donald Trump, an excellent webpage re Gorka —

Here Sebastian Gorka is with Tamás Molnár, who resembles András Lánczi. Molnár is the former vicepresident of Jobbik, from which he resigned prior to this September 2006 press confab. In 2007 Gorka and Molnár linked to form ÚDK [New Democratic Coalition], a now-dead right-of-Fidesz party.

Sebastian Gorka, who has been booted from the White House, is now licking his wounds à la Bannon, proudly proclaiming his fealty to Trump. NWS that, Gorka likely now feels somewhat dispossessed, given that he is no longer able to chestflog his Vitézi Rend medals at White House soirées.

MAGYARKOZÓ

wrfree
Guest

Re: ‘chestflog’… nice…

Speaking of the Vitezi Rend medals, I came across a piece in my daily paper noting Gorka’s hike out of the administration. I did notice that the reporting never mentioned his fashion statement at the POTUS inaugural ball nor the relevance to certain 30’s Euro political factions.

Thought it might make a mention to the editors. I’m figuring though the no reply was because they were so stunned. Seemed like it was news ‘fit to print’. As usual though Magyars can get involved with outrageous stuff and still manage to keep flyin’ ‘under the radar’.

tappanch
Guest

Hungary (and Slovakia, etc) have to take in the agreed number of refugees.

(The Hungarian government agreed to accept 1294 refugees in September 2015.)

The judgment of the European Cort of Justice:

http://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/document.jsf?text=&docid=194081&pageIndex=0&doclang=EN&mode=req&dir=&occ=first&part=1&cid=771778

tappanch
Guest

The case was formally
([Slovakia, Hungary] + Poland) against
(EU + [Greece, Italy] + [Germany, France, Sweden, Belgium, Luxembourg])

tappanch
Guest

Slovakia accepts the court’s decision the Orban government doesn’t.

Ferenc
Guest

And answers the HU minister, who has recently broken diplomatic relations with another EU country: “We don’t accept that the EU wants to settle illegal immigrants in Hungary”
The people, who concern this are NOT illegal, but were former asylum-seekers, who were officially granted refugee status.
So simply said the one who deserves the word illegal is that minister himself, who is not knowing what he’s talking about, or just bloody lying!!

Ferenc
Guest

Last year this same text was used in the referendum campaign. Even checked by the ‘Kúria’, and stated as although not correct, accepted to be used as an opinion.
http://jogaszvilag.hu/rovatok/napi/kuria-nem-jogserto-a-kormany-kampanya
But now, a year later, a minister is not giving it as an opinion in a campaign, but using it as official statement by the government. Conclusion he should know he is bloody lying!!

tappanch
Guest

The July 31, 2017 state of the “EU emergency relocation mechanism”

https://data2.unhcr.org/en/documents/download/58668

Martin
Guest
Orban just loves it, loves it, loves it. And Putin loves it too. Oh yes. Defying an ECJ verdict undermines the entire EU. (Of course nobody will invest in Hungary if eg. CEU is being shut down or EU law is just dismissed as irrelevant, but who cares about investors and investments and GDP when the nation is under siege by “Brusselite Islamists manipulated by Soros”?). Orban knows that there is no willingness neither in Brussels nor anywhere in Europe to force migrants physically on Hungary (i.e put them in a car and bring them into Hungarian territory). And nobody will take away the EU funds from Hungary. This is not a legal issue, but an eminently political one. It would be soon too obvious that the deterrent just doesn’t work, that there is no nuclear option, that the EU is in fact toothless. At least now the EU can still pretend. The verdict is a sound legal decision but Orban will keep the issue alive and if there is one thing which occupies the minds of average joes is the migrant issue. They are absolutely terrified of migrants and there is no way they will ever vote for anybody… Read more »
Guest

In the short run the Balkan fascistoids (O, K etc) might think they had won but in the long run?
The core of the EU will consider them Russian dependents again and we might see a return to the good old Kádár times when Hungarians worked for us Germans etc for low wages. The qualified young ones will emigrate as before, the Mafia will become richer and the poor majority will toil in two or three jobs and drink cheap wine and pálinka just like 50 years ago.
What a glorious future!

PS:
@Tappanch, our numbers expert:
Some years ago from the numbers available to me I got the info that Hungarians make about one fourth of what a German or Austrian makes in the same job/profession.
Has this relation changed significantly?
Imho it’s still similar – a cleaner here gets 1000 HUF/hour while in Germany we pay 12 €/hour, a professional craftsman gets around 2000 HUF/hour, in Germany youpay more than 20€ …

tappanch
Guest

OECD countries, 2015 data:

Luxembourg $62,580
Switzerland: $60,242
US $59,691

Norway $54,629
Netherlands $52,719

Austria $48,252
Germany $45,810
France $42,455

Slovenia: $34,153
Israel: $32,729

Slovakia $22,924
Hungary $20,667

Read the detailed definition of “wages” at
https://data.oecd.org/earnwage/average-wages.htm

Criticism:

20667*290.638/12 = 500,551 HUF/month

https://www.irs.gov/individuals/international-taxpayers/yearly-average-currency-exchange-rates

But the official 2015 Hungarian monthly wages were:

gross: 247,924 HUF
net: 162,391

Therefore the OECD methodology GROSSLY inflates the Hungarian (possibly the other) wages

Guest

Thanks, Tappanch!
So nothing has changed and the brain drain will continue …

tappanch
Guest

All right, the previous numbers were “purchasing power” salaries, which doubled the actual Hungarian salary in the OECD calculations.

Here are the 2016 actual average GROSS salaries in the 25 OECD countries:

Europe: yearly gross; ratio to Hungary

Switzerland: 7.75
Iceland: 6.66

Luxembourg: 6.03
Denmark: 5.82
Norway: 5.71

Ireland: 5.14
Netherlands: 4.67

Belgium: 4.31
Sweden: 4.23
UK: 4.18
Austria: 4.14
Finland: 4.12

tappanch
Guest

Germany: 3.83
France: 3.68

Italy: 2.91
Spain: 2.77

Slovenia: 2.28

Greece: 1.74
Portugal: 1.66

Estonia: 1.42
Latvia: 1.27
Slovakia: 1.26
Czechia: 1.23
Lithuania: 1.13
Poland: 1.10
Hungary: 1

tappanch
Guest

OECD members outside Europe:

US: 5.44 times Hungarian salary in 2016,
Australia: 5.38
Canada: 4.40
New Zealand: 4.04

Japan: 3.53
Israel: 3.52
Korea: 2.63

Chile: 1.64
Mexico: 0.74

To summarize, Hungarians receive the second smallest wages inside the 35-member OECD, just above Mexico.

Ferenc
Guest

Just had one more infogram free, and the average wages seemed interesting to compare (for the V4).
So based on the data from OECD, https://data.oecd.org/earnwage/average-wages.htm , made a new infogram for the V4 countries period 2002-2016.
See result here https://infogram.com/average-wages-2002-2016-for-v4-1g43mn7x83432zy

Conclusions:
For Hungary only (per government period)
2002-2006: slowing down increase
2006-2010: first stagnation, then slight decrease
2010-2014: again stagnation, slight decrease, stagnation
2014-2016: speeding up increase
Comparing Hungary to other V4:
2002-2010: position 2nd down to 4th, bigger impact 2008-09 financial crisis
2010-2014: position 4th, more lagging behind the other 3

Notes:
-I’m not an economist, so consider it very strange that for the wages Poland holds first place (most of the period, and way ahead others!), but when comparing GDP/person Poland is mostly last (though catching up (especially to Hungary)

Ferenc
Guest

Just found on infogram an option for embedding in wordpress
TESTING THAT HERE (so if it looks BS, just neglect this)
[infogram id=”ecdd48c0-8377-4623-967d-66fffb49e3ee” prefix=”GCG” format=”interactive” title=”Average Wages 2002-2016 for V4″]

Ferenc
Guest

PS: wanted to add Romania in the V4 comparison, but no data available.
Romania appears to be not a member of OECD yet, and currently Hungary wants to VETO their membership!!
The news: http://hirtv.hu/ahirtvhirei/roman-frontot-is-nyitott-a-kulugy-1402940

My reaction:
Blargh!! Those IL-EVERYTHING (incl.legal!) *$$H*LE$

tappanch
Guest

@Ferenc, Your graph is based on the “purchasing power” – weighted gross salaries.

I calculated the actual gross salaries with respect to Hungary in 2002, 2010 and 2016.

Could you make a chart using the data below ?

As everybody can see, the Socialist government performed BETTER for the Hungarian salaries than Fidesz – relative to the other OECD countries.

yearly gross; ratio to Hungary

2016; 2010; 2002
Europe:

Switzerland: 7.75; 7.70; 8.57
Iceland: 6.66; 5.49; 6.78

Luxembourg: 6.03; 6.05; 6.51
Denmark: 5.82; 5.67; 5.78
Norway: 5.71; 5.45; 5.24

Ireland: 5.14; 5.23; 4.85
Netherlands: 4.67; 4.73; 5.07

Belgium: 4.31; 4.34; 5.09
Sweden: 4.23; 3.98; 4.03
UK: 4.18; 4.35; 4.68
Austria: 4.14; 4.22; 4.61
Finland: 4.12; 4.19; 4.24

tappanch
Guest

2016; 2010; 2002

Germany: 3.83; 3.60; 4.17
France: 3.68; 3.62; 3.84

Italy: 2.91; 3.06; 3.40
Spain: 2.77; 2.93; 3.14

Slovenia: 2.28; 2.27; 2.40

Greece: 1.74; 2.11; 2.40
Portugal: 1.66; 1.83; 2.11

Estonia: 1.42; 1.25; 0.98
Latvia: 1.27; 1.02; 0.72
Slovakia: 1.26; 1.21; 1.07
Czechia: 1.23; 1.17; 1.08
Lithuania: 1.13; 0.94; 0.75
Poland: 1.10; 1.02; 1.08
Hungary: 1 ; 1 ; 1

tappanch
Guest

OECD members outside Europe:

2016; 2010; 2002
US: 5.44; 5.29; 5.73
Australia: 5.38; 5.37; 5.61
Canada: 4.40; 4.18; 4.19
New Zealand: 4.04; 3.91; 3.90

Japan: 3.53; 3.64; 4.17
Israel: 3.52; 3.27; 4.05
Korea: 2.63; 2.60; 2.66

Chile: 1.64; 1.54; 1.47
Mexico: 0.74; 0.74; 0.88

tappanch
Guest

We can see the marked decline of the relative
salaries in Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal in the 2002-2016 period.

Note the surge of the Baltic states as well.

Ferenc
Guest

@tappanch
Regarding using your data:
1.I focused on V4 (sometimes including Romania) and make the comparison broader, but when using your full list, it will make the infogram too full (I suspect). So which other than V4 countries you recommend to include?
2.Do you have comparable data for Romania?
3.Can you explain how you calculated from the PPPs weighted data (the only one available at OECD website) to the actual gross salaries
4.to make the infogram more complete including data for 2006 would be nicer also, I think

PS: my infogram free account is full now (max.10 pcs), but can of course make an extra one (e.g.Ferenc2).

tappanch
Guest

“PPPs weighted data (the only one available at OECD website)”
Nope.

https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=AV_AN_WAGE

The numbers are in the fourth row in the entry of each country

Could you make a chart that includes
V3: Slovakia, , Czechia, Poland (Hungary will be a straight line),
Latvia (representing Baltics),
In addition Germany, UK (where most Hungarians emigrated).

Thank you !

Ferenc
Guest

Thanks, OK!!

Ferenc
Guest

Here you go
V4 (and Latvia): https://infogram.com/3faee07a-6d36-4cc1-ae75-60fb03c50285
V4(+others): https://infogram.com/353a5caa-9af5-44ab-b30a-d2d151308232

Made two graphs (V4 and V4+), because big differences between V4 and DE/UK make details within V4 less clear…

Aida
Guest
The decision of the ECJ on the quota issue is not a political act. To pretend that it is, is clearly absurd. The case was brought in the ECJ by Slovakia, which accepts the decision and Hungary, which does not. Hungary would have been able to claim it does not accept the quota directive from the EU as they did from the outset. Once they challanged it’s lawfulness before the ECJ they have clearly accepted the jurisdiction of the ECJ, having invoked it. It is pure cabaret to refuse to accept it once the decision went against them. In my view the Hungarian reaction to the decision puts a serious question mark on Hungary’s future in the EU. The next significant question is not whether or for how long Hungary remains in the EU. It is how the EU and other advanced or not so advanced democracies will deal with the world crisis generated by the growing number of fascist countries including Hungary. It is not a new problem. In the years before WW2 there was the Soviet Union, Germany, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Hungary etc. I heard the outgoing French Ambassador to London today to say that for her UK… Read more »
Martin
Guest

Not the ECJ decision, but the potential legal action against Hungary in line with the HS post a few days ago (titled: Legal grounds for the suspension of EU funding to Hungary now) would be a political action par excellence.

Such an action is not about smart legalese and creative legal ideas as the post implied but about a political willingness to face the consequences if the procedure fails for whatever reasons and it cannot be pretended any longer that the EU is powerful. EU’s powerfulness is already n doubt but at least we can still pretend.

I hope there will be an action against Hungary and Orban – how long can an organization tolerate this kind of consistent, conscious low intensity destruction from within? – but I’m not optimistic.

Aida
Guest

Your analysis is correct. The EU’s powers are limited, its decision making processes are obscure and wrapped up in having to get broad agreement from many parties.
Since the fundamental principle of the EU and all democracies is the acceptance of the rule of law and since the Hungarian government’s refusal to respect the ECJ’s decision is incompatible with that principle Hungary is repudiating one of the fundamental principles which goes with its EU membership. The direction of travel is the exit and an ever closer union with Russia and various other pariah regimes around the world. Today’s events have provided confirmation that VO does not accept the obligations of EU membership and it is impossible to see how Hungary can continue with it. Next year’s elections will be the watershed before they trigger Articke 50.

tappanch
Guest

Aliyev copies Orban’s slogans:

Azeri presidential press service:

“George Soros and his henchmen behind campaign against Azerbaijan and its leadership”

http://en.apa.az/azerbaijan-politics/foreign-news/george-soros-and-armenian-lobby-which-act-in-concert-with-him-carry-out-dirty-campaign-against-azerbaijani-president-and-his-family-presidential-press-service.html

(For people who did not read 24.hu, The Guardian or the comments yesterday: the Russian and Azeri governments used a financial vehicle to transfer and launder $2.9 billion to European politicians [and themselves] just in three years, 2002-2014. Mr Orban most likely received $7.6 million this way for releasing the Azeri axe murderer in 2012.]

tappanch
Guest

“The Armenian lobby, which acts in concert with [Soros], carries out a dirty campaign against the President of Azerbaijan and his family. But despite their efforts, this campaign has not yielded any results. The fact that one of the co-authors of the article, which was published by The Guardian newspaper, is Armenian Dina Nagapetyan once again shows that these dirty accusations are at the same time another disgusting action of the world Armenianism”

The visceral and “racial” hatred the Azeri and the Turkish governments have towards the Armenians [and nowadays towards the Kurds as well] can only be compared with that of Nazi Germany towards the Jews.

tappanch
Guest

Disclosure: I like Atom Egoyan’s movies, have read Werfel’s “The Forty Days of Musa Dagh” and visited Etchmiadzin. Also Baku, but not Sumgait.

http://sumgait.info/sumgait/sumgait-eng/sumgayit-victims-eng.htm

wrfree
Guest
tappanch
Guest

Foreign minister Szijjártó today:

“”Visszautasítok minden olyan sejtetést, sumák találgatást, ami kapcsolatot feltételez bűnügyek és a magyar kormány között!””

My translation:
I reject any baseless conjectures [but said in a gutter parlance that characterizes the speech of Fidesz leaders] between crimes and the Hungarian government.

https://444.hu/2017/09/06/szijjarto-sumak-aki-az-azeri-penzt-osszekoti-a-baltas-gyilkossal

wrfree
Guest

Amazing how allegedly such a mellifluous language gets to be uttered in stirring cadences of incredible flim-flam.

Member

“Blaming others while claiming superiority over them seems to be a favorite pastime in Hungary.”

I never lived under any communist regime, but from my reading, it seems like the Orbanites inherited this behavioral trait from Rakosi and his coterie. Any failure of the post-WWII communist system was blamed on agents provocateur and paid Western agents.

Does anyone who was alive at the time see a direct connection?

Observer
Guest

Of course there is connection, it is called human nature. History repeats itself because it’s basically similar reactions to similar circumstances, over and over again.
The direct connection is the same place and proximity in time, the socialization of Orban and its initial circle was in the communist environment, many of them were com youth KISz activists.
Orban just wanted the chair of a higher communist official.

wrfree
Guest

Communism…..what a perversion to have it fit human nature. And illiberalism ….what a perversion to have it now wearing almost the same garb as its near cousin.

In Magyarorszag this type of movement is part of a fashion and magic show. Now you see it now you don’t and hey it all still looks good to make a run with it.

Observer
Guest

wrfree

As you can see from history democracy is not the natural state of a tribe or people although it has been known for 2500 years at least. Invariably there is greed, struggle, someone climbs to the top and subjugates the rest.

As a POTUS said – democracy is not passed with the genes, we have to work for and defend it every day.

petofi
Guest

Orban is a malevolent gypsy who will say and do anything to keep enemies off balance. To engage him in logical discourse is already to fall into one of his traps.

Aida
Guest

Substitute for “gipsy” “Hungarian” or “man” and the point you are making will gain persuasiveness. Surely your case does not depend on VO being a “gipsy”. Or does it?

Observer
Guest

Aida

This term is used with double purpose:
– it’s a very familiar negative stereotype (worth a hundred words) and
– is very offensive to the fideszniks throwing them off balance.

A la guerre comme a la guerre.

Guest

You mean:
All is fair in love and war

Observer
Guest

The French expression is more honest, the English is trying to justify the unfair.

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