The latest opinion polls on the chances of the opposition parties

First, before getting into the polls, a short “public service announcement.” Arcanum Adatbázis Kft. will hold an “open day” tomorrow (October 13). Arcanum has been digitalizing an enormous number of documents, periodicals, newspapers, and books over the past few years. A certain amount of their digitalized material is available at no cost, including such gems as Maria Theresa’s 1767 Urbarium, which genealogy buffs will find especially useful, but for full access you must pay a monthly fee. If you visit Arcanum’s table of contents (https://adtplus.arcanum.hu/hu/) you will find an amazing amount of material. So I urge everybody to make a quick trip today and look around. Tomorrow everybody will be able to browse Arcanum’s rich depository of material.

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Two new polls have been published recently. The first was conducted by Publicus Research, which was specifically interested in voters’ reaction to László Botka’s withdrawal as MSZP’s candidate for the post of prime minister. To my surprise, 43% of the respondents didn’t think that Botka’s disappearance from the scene made an appreciable difference in the electoral chances of the parties on the left. My surprise was based on the following considerations. First, those who disapproved of Botka’s handling of the negotiations with the other left-opposition parties should think that his retirement would enhance the likelihood of a united front, which, at least in theory, should boost the chances of the socialist-liberal side. On the other hand, those who saw in Botka a strong leader who could give a face to a unified opposition should be disappointed and consider the chances of the opposition diminished. Yet, it mattered not whether the respondent was a Fidesz, a Jobbik, or an MSZP voter; they all agreed that Botka’s presence in the campaign was neither here nor there. I think this outcome is a sad commentary on Botka’s eight-month non-campaign.

The amazing finding is that, despite the fact that 66% of the respondents thought that Botka’s withdrawal from the race shows the chaos that exists among the left-opposition parties, 44% still think that with hard work and readiness to compromise the left-opposition could win, as opposed to 49% who think that, no matter what, they couldn’t win. Moreover, over 60% said that Botka’s resignation was not too late; there is, they believe, still time to find a suitable and successful replacement.

As for the likelihood of victory over Fidesz at the next election, the respondents were divided, depending on party preference. Over 83% of Fidesz voters are convinced that their party will easily win next year, while MSZP voters are even more sure (89%) that there will be a change of government in 2018. Interestingly enough, Jobbik voters are much more cautious in their predictions. The majority (58%) are optimistic, but there is a large minority (42%) who fear that Fidesz will remain in power.

When Publicus Research asked the respondents about their willingness to vote for the left-opposition, there were only a couple of surprises. Clearly, Fidesz supporters are not contemplating voting for such an opposition group. However, it was somewhat of a shock that 53% of Jobbik voters would be willing to vote for the left-opposition. I suspect that the question wasn’t clear enough: “How likely would you be to vote for a left-wing joint force (együttműködés) at the 2018 election?” There is only one situation in which such a decision would make sense: if a Jobbik voter was confronted with a situation in which no Jobbik candidate was on the ballot in his electoral district.

Otherwise, Publicus, along with many other pollsters, maintains that the majority (56%) of the electorate would like to see a change of government. Over 90% of MSZP, DK, LMP, Párbeszéd, Együtt, and Jobbik voters want Viktor Orbán and his minions to be replaced, and what is encouraging is that 56% of undecided voters want the same. Considering the consensus view that undecided voters hold the key to electoral success, that level of desire for a change of government must be heartening to the opposition.

The second poll, by Medián, was released today. The data was gathered in the second half of September, before the withdrawal of László Botka. The goal was to find answers to the question of the electorate’s desire for collaboration among the opposition parties. This time only possible voters for opposition parties took part in the survey. Here again there are some surprises. Perhaps the most intriguing result is that 33% of anti-Fidesz voters claim that they prefer each party to run alone. This, given the present electoral system, would be suicidal for the opposition parties, and again I’m not sure whether the respondents really understood the question properly. They may have thought of separate party lists, especially since there was an alternative that talked about a common list that included all the opposition parties minus Jobbik. The other surprise is the relatively large number (33%) of those who want complete cooperation, which would include Jobbik. When Medián broke the answers down by party preferences, it turned out that 43% of MSZP, almost 50% of DK voters, and 34% of the undecided ones are willing to include Jobbik in a joint venture against Fidesz. Obviously, the desire to get rid of Orbán and his corrupt and undemocratic government overrides any other consideration. Although the leadership of LMP has been championing for years to face the election on its own, the party’s voters are not entirely convinced. LMP voters are almost evenly split on the issue.

Finally, let me lighten your day with a Jobbik stunt concerning the government’s campaign against George Soros. I think I wrote earlier that Bernadett Szél asked for a copy of the Soros Plan, which naturally the government was unable to provide. Jobbik did better than that. It filed charges against George Soros with Károly Papp, the chief of police. The charges are: (1) preparation for a violent change of the constitutional order, (2) conspiracy against the constitutional order, (3) destruction, (4) treason, and (5) rebellion. As support for the charges they cited claims by Bence Tuzson, undersecretary responsible for communication, György Bakondi, chief adviser on domestic security, János Halász, Fidesz spokesman, Szilárd Németh, deputy chairman of the parliamentary committee on security, András Aradszki, who called Soros Satan, Gyula Budai, Fidesz member of parliament, Zoltán Kovács, government spokesman, and Csaba Fodor, managing director of Nézőpont, a Fidesz political think tank. Ádám Mirkóczki, Jobbik spokesman, said that if Soros is guilty of all the things Fidesz and government spokesmen accuse him of, he should be arrested and charged. I’m sure that Károly Papp will not find the Jobbik antic funny.

October 12, 2017
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Member

In 2018 it will not be in the power of the voters, to replace the corrupt criminals and thieves their leader who rules them with absolut power and masquarading as the Government.
The votes are counted by aGovernment Agency, under 100% Fidesz control and the Votes are verified by a panel of 100% Fidesz appointees. Cheating and gross exaggeration of pro Fidesz vote numbers can be applied, will be applied and it will be verified as genuine.
Dictators and criminals in power are never displaced from their positions by democratic voting systems.
=====
On a separate note, I don’t thnk,the Hungarian voters have a worthwhile, trustworthy alternate leader with any kind of party affiliation to vote for. It would be better to hire a management company from abroad, to form a Government. Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin can suggest at least two-three capable groups immediately.

wrfree
Guest

Re: ‘Dictators and criminals in power are never displaced from their positions by democratic voting systems’

A powerful statement that is true. And from what I have learned here about the very very shady Magyar political environment makes it even more powerful knowing that the opposition’s efforts in wresting power away from Fidesz is akin to as I have heard in another place having raindrops falling on an elephant. And it has proved to be difficult to get rid of that big fat elephant in the room.

But they must persevere if they want to preserve at least some semblance of democracy within the country. The new political game of illiberalism has sped the country into a rapid descent towards an awful arrogance of privilege and consistent efforts to dismantle the pillars of democracy. It’s a game set up by and for cheats. Nobody wins but the elephants. Time to find some way to stop feeding the popcorn.

Member

Based upon my many conversations with Hungarians, I would suspect that many voters do not understand the ins and outs of the Fidesz electoral system. Hence the apparent contradictions in the Publicus poll: People want a change of government, but also think that opposition parties should run on separate tickets; MSZP voters (89%) are sure there will be a change of government, despite dreadful poll numbers and no cooperation on the opposition side.

The idea that 53% of Jobbik supporters would vote for a left-wing ticket is flabbergasting. It runs contrary to everything I have heard from Jobbik supporters. As I have mentioned in previous comments here, there is no evidence that cross-party voting occurred in the 2015 by-elections, despite analysts’ best efforts to convince us otherwise.

What is even more contradictory are the numbers that do not appear in this article: Recent polls showing that 43% to 53% of decided voters intend to vote for Fidesz. A third consecutive 2/3 majority is a fait accompli, barring a major shift in voter attitudes in the next few months.

Marty
Guest

“I’m not sure whether the respondents really understood the question properly”.

No. People simply don’t understand the election system.

30% of the kids – we know from the PISA tests – are completely or practically illiterate. It’s naïve to think that the adult voters understand the incentives or intricacies of a complex election system.

Most voters just don’t get what this big fuss about cooperation or non-cooperation is all about.

Observer
Guest

Marty
Alex K

People don’t understand the intricacies, this is why the dem parties should come out with simple messages like vote this way in order to get rid of the Orban mafia ..

Whatever the results you envisage, the dem parties’ purpose and job is to keep fighting. Unforeseen events may heighten their chances, e.g. financial crisis, weleaning of the HUF or revelations re the Orban mafia offshore accounts.

Ferenc
Guest

OT
There’s something going on in the world. A situation we cannot ignore any longer and we need to address it. Say nay to NRA (nonsensical rifle addiction).
From the creator of ‘Netherlands Second’ and ‘Westeros the Serie’s.

wrfree
Guest

Great programming from across the pond..😎👍 . If I would say that killings by gun have even stepped up more gun ownership some would not believe it. But then again one must be prepared for the truth. In a sense we have all become potential individual ‘militias’ now.

Guest

Come on! The truth is out there – you just have to get the right sources:
Ever heard of Sheila Zilinsky, the craziest of the crazies?
REVEALED! Was Vegas Shooting ILLUMINATI “Deep State” Occult Sacrifice?
http://www.weekendvigilante.com/revealed-vegas-shooting-illuminati-deep-state-occult-sacrifice/

When I read “Illuminati” I didn’t know whether to break into hysterical laughing or start crying …
These “Christians” are just unbelievable!

Btw Orbán also spoke again on the persecution of Chriatians all over the world – it’s on politics.hu.

Aida
Guest
I have not read what he said about persecutions, but did he condemn or at least mention the Burmese genocide of their Muslim population? Or perhaps Muslims are not living beings. Or you may have read that the former British finance minister Lord (why ) Lawson accused his successor Phil Hammond of trying to sabotage “Brexit”. Like all English politicians he is talking nonsense, but whilst Phil is no saboteur, he too is sub standard. He got carried away trying to show what a good Englishman he was by referring to the UK’s negotiating partners, the EU as the “enemy”. This is an example of the English school of negotiating. Meanwhile claimants under the newly introduced and much simplified benefits system sometimes have to wait weeks to get paid their entitlement. If, as most have no savings, you are up a gumtree unless you can find a benefits office that will lend you the money to tied you over. There are very few benefits offices and they diminish day by day. However, the great Tories charge interest on the loans when the need for the loan is the incompetence of the administration of the benefits system. And of course the… Read more »
Istvan
Guest
The United States has always been a very violent place, and the National Rifle Association to which I belong as do numerous retired and active US Army officers, did not create this situation. Currently about 42% of households in the USA have at least one gun in the home. This is probably the case for a 150 years. An adult who lived in Dodge City from 1876 to 1885 faced at least a 1 in 61 chance of being murdered, Chicago in 2016 one of our more violent cities had 27.9 killings per 100,000 residents, Dodge City faced a homicide rate of at least 165 per 100,000 adults per year. If you look at the cities in the world with the highest murder rates the first 13 of them have very restrictive gun laws, the 14th is the city of St Louis in the USA. To see this data go to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_murder_rate The driver of murder is social disorder, not the availability of guns. Acapulco, Mexico in 2016 had a rate of 113.24 murders per 100,000 adults per year. See https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/world/how-acapulco-became-mexicos-murder-capital/?utm_term=.38dfb6bfca96 for a very detailed examination of murder in Acapulco. The murders in Las Vegas were exceptional in the sense… Read more »
Ferenc
Guest
“The driver of murder is social disorder, not the availability of guns” You are right, but not complete. My expansion: social disorder causes more frustration and aggression, add to this the higher, legal or illegal, availability of guns and murder rates are higher “The overwhelming majority of gun related crimes in the USA are committed with guns that have been stolen” My comment: less guns legally available, less stealing of guns, less gun related crimes and murders “Two-thirds of the people who die each year from gunfire in the USA are people with criminal records [CR] being shot by other people with criminal records” My question: What about the other 1/3? So how many are: people with CR shot by people without CR (authorities and/or civilians) – people without CR shot by others (with or without CR)? The list of cities is interesting, but a country comparison makes more sense to me – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_firearm-related_death_rate (note: article needs updating and more sources, currently data most from University of Sydney only) My summary: social disorder + gun rate => gun death rate United States: moderate + very very high => very high Mexico: very high + low => high Canada: very low… Read more »
Guest

Not too much OT re the USA:
Since 1968, more Americans have been killed by guns than have been killed in all wars in U.S. history.
And that number includes the Civil War with more than half a million casualties …
http://www.snopes.com/gun-deaths-wars/
PS:
The number of deaths by guns includes suicides and accidents of course – like that two year old playing yround with father’s gun and killing his mother …

Ferenc
Guest

relevant figures in list on the linked wikipage
Firearm-related death rate per 100,000 population per year
11.United States – 10.54 gun-deaths (with 112,600 guns)
16.Mexico – 7.64 gun-deaths (with 15,000 guns)
33.Canada – 1.97 gun-deaths (with 30,800 guns)

Ferenc
Guest

“Jobbik filed charges against George Soros with Károly Papp, the chief of police”
The reasoning behind this (obviously) as follows:
a.OV&Co are spreading such devastating information about Soros, that (if true) he has to be a thread for the country and therefore official investigations have to be performed by the authorities (e.g.police) under the direct responsibility of the government (e.g.Ministry of Interior)
b.if such investigations are unsuccessful or just not performed, it is acknowledged by the government itself that they are spreading lies (note in my opinion, that would be against their own fundamental law) and wasting the people’s money (idem)

Now is OV&Co able to avert this (double) threat , THAT’s the question!!

The Jobbik strategy is talked about in the next HirTV interview, one peculiar thing here is that the reporter is imho playing very gladly along with the Jobbik representative, no critical questions asked…
http://hirtv.hu/reggelijarat/offshore-kiraly-1405336

PS: one can ask now, why didn’t other (more democratic) parties come up with this strategy, well imho one has to be as undemocratic as OV&Co to produce this act…

Observer
Guest

Kudos to the Jobbik for this legal move, good job. The Orban regime has painted itself into a corner, in a lose-lose situation. I’m sure they will walk over the paint, i.e. over the law, but it will be messy.

wrfree
Guest

OT

POTUS apparently has had enough of free media He’s now threatening to go after FCC (Federal Communucation) media licenses held by various networks. Apparently he does not like how news information is being reported particularly from NBC. The Dems rightly so are up in arms. And now all should know why he admires Putin. He is learning much.

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