Tag Archives: Antal Rogán

What’s the new Fidesz game plan?

There is just too much talk by Fidesz leaders about the “hot autumn” ahead of us. One politician after the other, starting with Viktor Orbán, warns us that the frustrated opposition led by George Soros and his NGOs is preparing for disturbances on the streets which may well be the beginnings of an assault against Hungary’s “democratic institutions.”

László Kövér envisaged this very scenario at one of the “free universities” organized by Fidesz in neighboring countries. These “free universities” are three- to four-day gatherings where Fidesz politicians deliver speeches about the excellent performance of the Orbán government. The most famous “free university” is held in Tusnádfürdő-Bálványos, Romania, where Viktor Orbán makes a regular appearance. What he has to say there is usually politically significant.

In 2013 this Fidesz tradition was expanded to Slovakia. In July of that year a new “free university” was born in Martos (Martovce), a village of about 700 inhabitants in Komárno County. Originally, the organizers hoped that Viktor Orbán would honor the event with his presence, but in the end they had to be satisfied with László Kövér as the keynote speaker. This first appearance became a regular event. Every year Kövér opens the Martosfest, as he did this year as well.

It was here that László Kövér joined those Fidesz politicians and journalists of the government media who had declared that by the fall a veritable coalition will have been forged by the Hungarian opposition and the Soros NGOs. They will be organizing disturbances on the streets of Budapest. “They will try to create an atmosphere filled with civil-war psychosis,” as Kövér put it.

Actually, there is nothing new in this madcap story because Fidesz propaganda has been full of stories about impending physical attacks against the legitimate government of Hungary. At the end of May Antal Rogán, Orbán’s propaganda minister, was already talking about “existing training centers where people whose job will be the organization of widespread actions of civil disobedience” are being trained. And if that doesn’t work, they will try to provoke some kind of police attack against the demonstrators. On June 2 Magyar Idők seemed to know that the “members of the Soros network will embark on a new strategy, starting early autumn.” Their goal is the destabilization of the country because many of the leading commentators are convinced that the present regime cannot be replaced by democratic means.

Viktor Orbán himself talked about “the hot summer and even hotter fall that awaits us.” He predicted that George Soros will do his best to have a new government in Hungary that will take down the fence and open the borders to illegal immigrants. 444 might find all this sheer madness, but one can’t help thinking that we are faced here with a centrally manipulated propaganda campaign and that behind it the government may actually be preparing to create a situation that would require police intervention. That would give the government an opportunity for a major crackdown, possible martial law, and perhaps the large-scale jailing of activists and opposition politicians.

Opposition politicians are suspicious of Viktor Orbán and the Fidesz top leadership, and not without justification. There have been times in Fidesz’s history when Viktor Orbán and his closest circle most likely committed criminal acts in order to acquire power. In the first instance, they succeeded. A lot of people, including me, are convinced that the series of explosions that took place shortly before the 1998 election were the work of Fidesz, which at that time was trailing the socialist-liberal coalition forces. Whoever placed the bombs at or near houses or apartments of Fidesz and Smallholder politicians made sure that no serious damage was done. Of course, the Horn government and its minister of interior, Gábor Kuncze (SZDSZ), were blamed for the lack of security, and these events had a negative impact on public opinion. The election was held and Fidesz, with the help of József Torgyán, chairman of the Smallholders party, won. From that moment on there was silence. No other explosion anywhere.

Fidesz’s role in the 2006 disturbances is also murky. The attack against the headquarters of the Hungarian Public Television was undertaken by relatively few people, mostly football hooligans who were fans of Ferencváros (Fradi). Interestingly, a week before the siege against the television station Viktor Orbán paid a rather unusual visit to a Fradi game where he sat right in the middle of these Fradi fans. A lot of people at the time didn’t think that this was a coincidence. And what happened on October 23 and after was not exactly a spontaneous affair either. Viktor Orbán and other Fidesz politicians for four or five solid weeks did their best to incite the rather unsavory crowd that gathered in front of the parliament building. Perhaps we will never know exactly what role Viktor Orbán and his men played in this attempt to topple the Gyurcsány government, but many people are convinced that it was an attempt to force the resignation of the whole government after a period of extended disturbances. Their resignation would be followed by a new snap election. It didn’t work out that way, but I’m sure this was the original plan.

“The siege against the television station wasn’t organized by the opposition” / Source: Gépnarancs

So, it’s no wonder that both MSZP and DK issued statements accusing Fidesz of starting to orchestrate a situation that would require police action. MSZP specifically mentioned the mysterious explosions in 1998. DK reminded people that it was only Fidesz that provoked violent streets riots in Hungary. DK suspects that Viktor Orbán is preparing to set Budapest on fire again. This is all very alarming.

July 7, 2017

The heist of two million euros

Three days ago, thanks to 444.hu, the Hungarian public at last learned about a robbery that had actually taken place during the night of April 7. In the last three months not a word about it has leaked out, despite an extensive police investigation. The effort to keep the case under wraps is not at all surprising because the burglary occurred at the office of Arton Capital, one of the four companies that were entitled to sell residency bonds.

The residency bond project was launched in 2013. It allowed a citizen of a non-European country to “buy” a resident permit for the duration of five years by purchasing €250,000 worth of Hungarian government bonds. In 2015 that amount was raised to €300,000. I called the project “the Orbán government’s colossal swindle” in one of my posts. Anyone who’s interested in the details should read that post, in which I explained that the greatest beneficiaries of this arrangement were the four companies that had the exclusive right to sell the bonds. According to estimates, these companies made a real killing, receiving about a third of the 1.2 billion euros the state got from the residency bonds.

When 444.hu first reported on the heist, few details were known, just that the burglars took cash and that the amount of money was in the millions. A few hours later RTL Klub knew the exact figures: altogether 1.9 euros were stolen. One million was in a safe and the rest was in an unlocked desk drawer. The safe was gone and so was the server with the complete documentation of all the sales, including personal data of the purchasers.

This burglary has been taken very seriously. According to accounts, the police have pulled out all the stops in trying to solve the case. Index reported that 1,300 people have been questioned in connection with this affair.

We have always suspected that this whole residency bond arrangement, devised by Antal Rogán, served only one purpose: to siphon off as much public money as possible and pass it into individual pockets and most likely also into Fidesz’s coffers. Under normal circumstances, all transactions should have been conducted by drafts or promissory notes. Moreover, if this large amount of cash was part of the clients’ handling fee that varied between €45,000 and €60,000 per residency bond, how did these cash payments reach Arton Capital in Budapest in the first place? A person can legally bring a maximum of €10,000 into the country in cash. The answer of course is that it was done illegally, possibly with the assistance of the authorities.

The burglars were skilled. Their entry and their movements inside the offices showed a high level of professionalism. I assume they were familiar with the place and knew exactly what they were after. Naturally, as always happens in such cases, so-called experts, mostly former police officers, come up with all sorts of fancy explanations–from self-robbery to foreign secret service agents who are after the personal data of the people to whom Hungary so generously allowed free access to the whole European Union. In any case, it looks like a complicated case to me. Even if the usually inept Hungarian police find the culprits, I don’t think we will ever learn the real story behind this huge amount of cash stashed away in an unlocked drawer and a safe.

The weak and usually powerless opposition, especially Jobbik and LMP, has been trying to organize an investigative committee to look into this very suspicious business around the residency bonds. Naturally, Fidesz made sure that no such committee would be formed. Therefore, last November Jobbik, LMP, and the tiny Liberal Party decided to form a “shadow committee” and began their own, unofficial investigation of the clearly illegal and corrupt money laundering business conducted by the Orbán government. At that time, the opposition members of parliament who participated in the shadow committee hoped to finish their job by the spring. After this initial announcement I didn’t see any sign of their activities, although they had ambitious plans, including holding hearings where employees of the Immigration and Citizenship Authority would be called to testify. But now, after the burglary, the shadow committee suddenly revived. They announced that they want to talk to the representatives of the four companies who are in the residency bond business. Good luck, since I’m certain that the men and women in question have no intention of being questioned by members of an opposition shadow committee. On the other hand, a representative of the Liberal Party claims that the members of the committee have learned that the residency bond project is “a professionally organized criminal undertaking.”

A Jobbik member of the committee, Andrea Varga-Damm, was Olga Kálmán’s guest on HírTV yesterday where she revealed an important piece of information, which is most likely the result of the investigation this shadow committee has been conducting in the last few months. The law that established the project was enacted on December 27, 2012. Twenty-six days earlier, on December 1, the government made some small changes in the bill, which up to that point had allowed the companies to hold only a certain amount of money in petty cash. That limit was abolished, most likely not quite independently from the forthcoming residency bond project. Talk about “a professional organized criminal undertaking.” All was prepared for the killing ahead.

June 30, 2017

George Soros and the mafia state: The Hungarian reaction

The Brussels Economic Forum (BEF) recently held its annual conference on economics and finance. BEF is a European Commission- sponsored organization where politicians and scholars deliver lectures, and where panel discussions are normally moderated by journalists. It is a truly international gathering. This year’s keynote speech, delivered by George Soros, created an uproar in Hungarian government circles.

The speech was mostly about the European Union’s precarious position given that it is confronted with powers that “are hostile to what [Europe] stands for”–“Vladimir Putin’s Russia, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Turkey, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s Egypt, and the America that Donald Trump would create if he could.” Soros talked about the need for “both salvation and radical reinvention” of the European Union. He addressed Brexit, the Eurozone, the migration crisis, and the banking crisis in Italy. It was at the very end of his short speech that he talked about the resistance of young people all over Europe and Great Britain against undemocratic right-wing parties and governments. He singled out “the ruling Law and Justice party in Poland, and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party in Hungary.” He was most surprised and heartened by the resistance in Hungary to the Orbán government’s attack on Central European University, something he was not expecting. He added: “I admire the courageous way Hungarians have resisted the deception and corruption of the mafia state Orbán has established, and I am encouraged by the European institutions’ energetic response to the challenges emanating from Poland and Hungary. While the path ahead is perilous, I can clearly see in such struggles the prospect of the EU’s revival.”

George Soros had visited Brussels a few weeks ago to confer with EU politicians about the plight of Central European University, but otherwise he had remained silent on the subject. Nonetheless, for months he has been under relentless attack by the Orbán administration, so it was amusing that the first reaction to his speech from members of the Fidesz leadership was that Soros’s comments were a clarion call for war against the Orbán government. As Tamás Deutsch, a Fidesz EP member, put it a few hours after the speech, “if it’s war, let it be war, we are ready.” By the next morning, when Viktor Orbán delivered his Friday morning “interview,” Soros’s critical words about the “mafia state” had become a “declaration of war.” Orbán said that if anything in Hungary can be called “mafia-like,” it is “the Soros-sponsored network of NGOs.” Fidesz filed a complaint with the European Commission, the sponsor of the Brussels Economic Forum. The party is looking for an explanation of how such comments could have been uttered at an event under the aegis of the European Commission.

It has been in the air for some time that certain Fidesz politicians are preparing themselves for renewed anti-government demonstrations sometime in the fall. If trends continue, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if spontaneous or quickly organized demonstrations would take place as soon as students return from their summer vacations. Most likely the Fidesz leaders feel the growing dissatisfaction, and they’re trying to lay the groundwork to counter such events. One way of handling such situations is to blame any kind of anti-governmental movement on a foreign culprit. And, of course, there is no more prominent culprit than George Soros. Antal Rogán, at one of his propaganda campaign stops, indicated that there might come a day when the police will have to use force against the demonstrators, who receive instructions in training camps and who provoke the police. He claimed to know about the existence of such training camps in Hungary. And who is behind these training camps? Naturally, the Soros-financed NGOs.

This nonsense is now being spread far and wide by the government propaganda machine. Ottó Gajdics, the editor-in-chief of Magyar Idők and one of the most primitive Fidesz propagandists, is warning Viktor Orbán to be prepared for “blockades and the occupation of government buildings.” The organizers of the past demonstrations realized that “rallies with music and dance” are not effective enough, and therefore hard-core violent demonstrations might take place. Gajdics’s fear of such a development was reinforced by George Soros’s “message.” Soros said in his speech in Brussels that “it is not enough to rely on the rule of law to defend open societies; [one] must also stand up for what one believes.” As far as Gajdics is concerned, that is a call for revolution.

The editors of Magyar Idők found the idea of a revolution in the fall organized by George Soros so attractive that, in addition to Gajdics’s editorial, the paper published another opinion piece in which the unnamed author foresees a scenario similar to that taking place in Macedonia. Macedonia, in his opinion, “has been ravaged” by George Soros via his NGOs. There the situation has deteriorated to such an extent that a few days ago a would-be assassin fired three shots at an outgoing minister of the Gruevski government. “We can only hope that [what happened in Macedonia] is not the dress rehearsal for the Hungarian elections [because] the expression ‘mafia state’ wasn’t uttered by accident as the crowning moment of the merciless speculator’s speech.”

It is somewhat surprising how enraged the Orbán government is with the label “mafia state” since the term, as readers of Hungarian Spectrum well know, has been in circulation since at least 2013, when Bálint Magyar published the first article in which he used it. The term stuck abroad as well. I found via Google over 1,000 mentions in English of Hungary as a mafia state. In Hungary about a year ago an opinion poll revealed that a majority of Hungarians describe the Orbán regime the same way.

A couple of days ago I saw a headline claiming that the anti-Soros propaganda campaign is not as successful as earlier Fidesz propaganda efforts had been. Well, equaling or surpassing the anti-migrant campaign would be a difficult task, I admit, but the latest Republikon Intézet poll reveals that this particular Fidesz effort is in fact effective. Only 31% of the population think that Soros does not at all or does not seriously intervene in Hungarian domestic politics, while 28% believe that he has considerable influence on Hungarian politics and 12% think that he has some influence on Hungarian politics, with about 20% not willing to take sides. That means that 40% of the adult population more or less bought the anti-Soros propaganda. Of course, Fidesz voters are especially prone (about 70% in this case) to believing whatever the party tells them. For those who understand Hungarian, I highly recommend taking a look at this video where hard-core Fidesz voters tell the journalist what they think of George Soros and Brussels.

The socialist-liberal-Jobbik group is more immune to the government propaganda: only 30% swallow all the horror stories they hear on television or radio or read on the right-wing internet sites. Indeed, it could be worse, but unfortunately propaganda Orbán-style is extremely attractive because it appeals to patriotic or nationalistic impulses, which are hard to combat.

June 3, 2017

The anti-EU, anti-Soros campaigns continue with renewed vigor

As Der Spiegel reported yesterday afternoon, Chancellor Angela Merkel, when asked her opinion of the outcome of the meeting between the presidency of the European People’s Party and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, remarked that promises are one thing but she is waiting for “the actual results.” It seems that Viktor Orbán can no longer hoodwink European politicians. They have learned over the years that it is foolhardy to trust Orbán and his fellow Fidesz politicians.

Merkel’s comment came after the meeting about which we now know a little more. Today Der Spiegel reported that EC President Jean-Claude Juncker and Orbán, who were seated next to one another, engaged in an extended, vehement argument. At one point Jyrki Katainen, vice president for jobs, growth, investment, and competitiveness, apparently warned Orbán that the regional subsidies could be reduced in the future.

Der Spiegel opined that the EPP leadership is mistaken if they think that Orbán’s verbal agreement will be translated into deeds. This is also more or less what Rafał Trzaskowski, a Polish MP from the Civic Platform party who participated in the EPP meeting, suggested when he said that “the question is now whether he will follow what he says. Then, obviously, he can stay with us.” This comment, which I missed yesterday, further convinces me that Fidesz’s position in the EPP is not at all secure and the question of expulsion did come up during the meeting.

Admittedly, only one day has passed since the EPP meeting, but there is no sign of any let-up in anti-EU, anti-Soros propaganda in Hungary. On the contrary, it seems to me that Orbán’s answer to his “humiliation” is open defiance. Nobody really commented on the fact that Viktor Orbán was accompanied by Antal Rogán, his propaganda minister, during his stay in Brussels. Rogán sat silently next to him during his appearance before the European Parliament, and he could be seen at the brief encounter with journalists after the European Council meeting was over on Saturday afternoon.

Orbán’s forced grin may be a sign of discomfort

Rogán’s task is to explain to the Hungarian people what “really” happened in Brussels. He started his propaganda campaign this morning by giving an interview on Magyar Rádió’s “Vasárnapi Újság” in which he emphasized Hungary’s right to maintain positions different from those of the EU majority on certain issues. If necessary, the Hungarian government will take legal action to defend this right. Interestingly enough, he didn’t mention Central European University, the NGOs, or the “Stop Brussels” campaign. His concern was the migrant question. On this there can be no compromise, Rogán maintained. As for Fidesz’s relationship with the EPP, Rogán came up with an intriguing scenario. His claim is that George Soros has been working behind the scenes to have Fidesz expelled from the EPP. According to Rogán, Soros is also putting pressure on the European Union to force Hungary to dismantle the fence and the transit zones on the Serbian-Hungarian border, but this is not negotiable.

We know that the migrant question was discussed during the EPP meeting because politico.hu reported that Saturday’s meeting became tense “when Orbán said he will never accept Muslim migrants” into his country. The refugee crisis is Orbán’s most effective political weapon. Orbán contends that the refugees who came through the Balkans were not desperate people running away from war and the refugee camps in Turkey and elsewhere. Instead, someone for political reasons must have encouraged these men and women to migrate to Europe. Orbán first blamed Angela Merkel, who invited the refugees to Germany. Later he pointed the finger at George Soros, the perfect scapegoat for his political purposes. By accusing Soros of evil designs against Hungary and, in fact, against the whole of Europe, he can move against both the bothersome NGOs and Central European University. CEU may not interfere with his policies as some of the NGOs do, but an independent university over which he has no jurisdiction remains an irritant.

Bence Rétvári, undersecretary of the ministry of human resources, identified Soros as the source of all the problems Europe and Hungary are facing today. Soros’s meeting with Juncker especially bothers the members of the Orbán government. They envisage a whole Soros network that “applies pressure on the country.” Rétvári directed another attack on Central European University and its president, Michael Ignatieff, who after all “led the Canadian Liberal party and therefore behaves like a politician.” Despite all the protestation, he claims, CEU is not an independent university.

The brand new “Stop Brussels!” and anti-Soros ad, which runs on several television channels, can be seen here with English subtitles.

Zoltán Lomnici, Jr., an extreme right-winger and an active member of the government-sponsored CÖF, a pseudo-NGO, demanded on M1, the state television news station, that the 226 members of the European Parliament named in a document released by DC Leaks should be investigated because of the possibility that they serve foreign interests. Lomnici is referring to a publication prepared by the KumQuat Consult for Open Society European Policy Institute titled “Reliable allies in the European Parliament (2014-2019).” The list contains mostly Social Democratic, Green, and Liberal politicians. Lomnici pointed out that of the 17 MEPs who spoke during the plenary session on the Hungarian question 11 appeared on the Open Society’s list. Nézőpont Intézet, a pro-government think tank, devoted an opinion piece to the subject in which the author listed such important politicians as Martin Schulz, Olli Rehn, Gianni Pittella, Guy Verhofstadt, Sophie in’t Veld, and Ulrike Lunacek. Even Frank Engel, a Christian Democrat, is listed, which naturally explains why Engel would like to see Fidesz expelled from the EPP. Magyar Idők was pleased to report that Prime Minister Robert Fico is also contemplating steps to achieve “the transparency of civic organizations in Slovakia” and that the Polish government, just like Hungary, has problems with the Norwegian Fund.

The current Macedonian crisis is a godsend for the Orbán government’s Soros bashing. I should note here that Hungary, alongside Russia, is backing the Macedonian president, Gjorge Ivanov, who was a guest of the Orbán government about a month ago. On April 18 a Fidesz member of parliament addressed a question to Péter Szijjártó concerning the situation in Macedonia where, in his opinion, George Soros is behind the disturbances in Skopje. “The people of Macedonia have had enough of this and they began a ‘Let’s Stop Soros’ movement.” László Szabó, undersecretary in the foreign ministry, the man who will be the next Hungarian ambassador in Washington, replied. He claimed that Soros has been organizing anti-government demonstrations ever since May 2015. Since then, Péter Szijjártó released a statement about foreign interference in Macedonia’s internal affairs, which bore a suspicious resemblance to the statement published by the Russian ministry of foreign affairs.

In any case, the anti-Soros campaign is going on with renewed intensity as is the campaign to sign and return the “Stop Brussels!” national consultation questionnaires, to which both the European Commission and the presidency of the European People’s Party have strenuously objected. In fact, the government just launched a new campaign to urge people to return the questionnaires because they will play a vital role in the government’s defense of the country against the attacks by the European Union. At the same time, the government is trying to explain away the real meaning of the national consultation which, according to the latest interpretation, is simply a way of expressing the Hungarian government’s intentions to reform and improve the structure of the European Union. Somehow, I don’t think that Frans Timmermans and Joseph Daul will fall for this latest ruse of Viktor Orbán.

April 30, 2017

Viktor Orbán and Ghaith Pharaon: The end of a business relationship?

Although I’m aware that regular commenters on Hungarian Spectrum seem to be interested only in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s victory, I have to return to Hungarian affairs. After all, the blog’s stated purpose is to acquaint people with the politics, economy, culture, and history of Hungary.

I think that by now readers of Hungarian Spectrum are fully aware that the Orbán government is exceedingly pleased with the result and is looking forward to a close friendship between the two countries. I’m certain that Hungarian foreign ministry officials already envisage Viktor Orbán paying an early visit to the Trump White House. Maybe even a state dinner. Wouldn’t that be splendid?

But let’s get back to Hungarian reality, which is not without its troubles for Viktor Orbán and his closest entourage. The Hungarian prime minister might act high and mighty in parliament when asked about one of his closest associates, Antal Rogán, whose luxurious life style reeks of ill-gotten gains. But Rogán’s activities are symptomatic of wider problems. For instance, the “business activities” of the president of Hungary’s central bank, György Matolcsy, funneled through phony “foundations,” and his “generosity” toward his friends and family, from public funds, haven’t helped the reputation of the Orbán government. By now the majority of the population considers it rotten to the core.

Hardly a day goes by without one of the few remaining independent internet news sites unearthing a new scandal. Just today 444.hu published an excellent piece of investigative journalism showing that the Pénzügyi Szervezetek Állami Felügyelete (PSZÁF), the Hungarian equivalent of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Hungarian National Bank, which incorporated it in September 2013, must have had knowledge of Quaestor’s Ponzi scheme for at least 15 years before the brokerage firm collapsed in March 2015. I provided details of the scandal earlier.

Another story that doesn’t want to die concerns Ghaith Pharaon, a wealthy Saudi businessman who has been a fugitive from justice for the last 15 years at least. I covered the story about three weeks ago, but since then an awful lot of new information has come to light, which I will try to summarize briefly.

First of all, the confusion in government circles about the status of Pharaon is indescribable. Yesterday Index devoted a lengthy article to recounting the range of explanations coming from various government offices about why a fugitive from justice had received a Hungarian visa. The same confusion exists when officials try to explain Pharaon’s exact relationship to Viktor Orbán and his family. These explanations more often than not contradict one another. Some most likely have nothing to do with reality. János Lázár is especially prone to inventing stories for his weekly press conferences. I will not bore readers with these attempts to mislead the public.

On the other hand, I think it is important to note that Pharaon’s business activities were not confined to buying expensive real estate in Hungary from a firm connected to Viktor Orbán’s son-in-law, István Tiborcz. MOL, the Hungarian oil company, also had business dealings with Ghaith Pharaon through Pakistan Oil Fields Ltd. The deal was sealed only in April 2016. And a couple of days ago RTL Klub learned that the ministry of foreign affairs and trade, which owns Magyar Nemzeti Kereskedőház/MNK (Hungarian National Trading House), which is designed to encourage and smooth the way for ventures of Hungarian businessmen in different parts of the world, broke its contract with one of Pharaon’s Hungarian companies, Pharaon Gamma Kft. MNK naturally denied that the move had anything to do with the cloud over Pharaon.

The Artemy used by Lőrinc Mészáros

The Artemy used by Lőrinc Mészáros

Meanwhile, back in August Magyar Narancs learned about a 35m luxury yacht docked in the Zadar harbor in Croatia, most likely rented by Lőrinc Mészáros. Of course, it was a juicy story that the former pipefitter, Orbán’s front man, not only has a luxury villa on the Adriatic coast but also enjoys the good life on a yacht with a four-member crew on deck. But the story became truly interesting in November when the same reporters discovered that on August 4 Mészáros’s yacht was anchored in the harbor of Split. And behold, Ghaith Pharaon’s famous Le Pharaon luxury yacht, on which he spends most of his days, just happened to be docked right next to it. This was a most unlikely coincidence because, as the reporters found out, Le Pharaon had not visited Split in the three years prior.

Ghaith Pharaonás famous Le Pharaon

Ghaith Pharaon’s famous Le Pharaon

But this is not the end of the story. At the beginning of August Viktor Orbán disappeared for at least a week. The assumption was that he was on vacation. Zsolt Gréczy, the spokesman for DK, inquired from the prime minister’s office about the whereabouts of Viktor Orbán. He was told by Bertalan Havasi, director of the prime minister’s press office, that he was unable to provide any information regarding the prime minister’s holiday plans. Now that Magyar Narancs discovered the strange “coincidence” of the two yachts next to each other, DK suspects that it wasn’t so much a rendezvous between the pipefitter and the “professor,” as Orbán called Pharaon, but a high-level business meeting between the Hungarian prime minister and the wanted man. Today, although the prime minister’s office still hasn’t revealed where Viktor Orbán was on August 4, it claimed that “Viktor Orbán hasn’t even gotten near Split this year.” I doubt that this denial will satisfy the increasingly suspicious public.

And now let’s move on to a slightly different aspect of the Orbán-Pharaon relationship. Orbán in parliament admitted that he had met “Professor Pharaon” at a dinner party given by the Budapest representative of Jordan where Pharaon was the guest of honor. And now comes Mátyás Eörsi, former chair of the foreign affairs committee of the Hungarian parliament and undersecretary in the ministry of foreign affairs between 1994 and 1998. After hearing the story of Orbán’s meeting with the “professor,” he became suspicious. First of all, it is extremely rare for a prime minister to accept a dinner invitation from a representative of a foreign country. It is even less likely that he would accept such an invitation from the honorary consul of a country that doesn’t even have an embassy in Budapest. Economic relations between the two countries are practically nonexistent. Jordanian exports to Hungary amount to 0.04%, while Hungarian goods going to Jordan are only 0.15% of total trade. Surely, Eörsi argues, the prime minister’s acceptance of this dinner invitation had nothing to do with affairs of state.

Eörsi became even more suspicious when he tried to find out details of direct Jordanian investment in Hungary and discovered that, in the case of Jordan, this is “confidential information.” Normally such investment figures are readily available to the public. On the basis of his research Eörsi suspects, first, that the dinner was organized for the sole purpose of giving Orbán an opportunity to meet Pharaon in person without arousing suspicion and, second, that the subject of their meeting was of a private nature. As for the confidentiality of Jordanian investments the answer is simple enough. Pharaon’s front man is a Jordanian lawyer who is behind the nine Hungarian real estate purchases that have been sealed so far. Surely, the Jordanian partner doesn’t want to reveal details of Pharaon’s purchases, which were most likely acquired on the cheap in exchange for some benefits to the Hungarian partners. I find Eörsi’s hypotheses convincing.

November 15, 2016

The Orbán government stands fast at home and abroad

At home

Viktor Orbán was expected to have a difficult time in parliament today. It was one of those times that the prime minister has to answer questions. He cannot pass the unpleasant task on to one of his ministers or even to undersecretaries. All three opposition spokesmen wanted the prime minister to say something about Index’s revelations concerning Antal Rogán’s suspicious business activities which, on the surface at least, seem to involve kickbacks and money laundering.

Opportunities to confront the prime minister directly are rare, and therefore each opposition party should designate its best person to pose the question. I’m afraid MSZP’s choice of László Varga wasn’t wise. His “witticism”—if you can call it that—about Antal Rogán’s inability to see reality from his helicopter and the size of his apartment fell flat. For Orbán, who can shine in such a situation, Varga’s poorly formulated question was easy to answer and counter. Orbán never uttered Rogán’s name but instead reminded the socialists of the days when the MSZP-sponsored hunger marches were organized by “an opulent euro millionaire,” a reference to a high-level MSZP politician who was discovered to have 200 million forints worth of euros in an Austrian bank.

Bernadett Szél, co-chair of LMP, was a great deal more specific. First, she recalled all the lies Rogán told about the residency bonds and about his relationship to Balázs Kertész. Szél specifically wanted to know how long Antal Rogán can remain a minister. She reminded Orbán that he as prime minister is responsible for the composition of his government and therefore it is he who must take responsibility for the behavior of his ministers.

This question couldn’t be sidestepped. Orbán had to give a more or less straight answer. His reply: “I don’t have anything to do with political bluster and political tabloid sensations. I am interested only in performance within the government. Whatever has been happening to Antal Rogán so far only strengthens his position. Don’t think that these accusations shatter us or that they force us to think of them at all. I consider the accusations no more than infantile sham which I simply don’t take seriously. If one word of this affair were true you would have filed charges already.”

Viktor Orbán today in the Parliament

Viktor Orbán in parliament today

Finally, György Szilágyi of Jobbik rose and listed all the lies Rogán uttered in the last few days. He inquired why Orbán as prime minister tolerates this. Orbán pretty much repeated what he said to Szél: “These are political sham attacks that I don’t take seriously. Every attack I have heard so far only increases my trust in the minister.” Orbán also cleverly used this opportunity to bolster his defense of Rogán by pointing out that the attacks are no so much against his minister as against himself and his government. His final words to Szilágy were: “a politician calling another politician a liar is not very original.”

So, for the time being Rogán’s position is secure. He has been an indispensable associate who, by the look of things, brought billions of euros into the coffers not only of the country but most likely also of Fidesz, in addition to enriching himself. Orbán at the moment thinks so little of the strength of the opposition that he believes that he can withstand all the charges. Most likely he is right.

Abroad

Hungarian papers barely mentioned an extraordinary dinner meeting of foreign ministers held on Sunday, which was inspired by German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier. In light of the unexpected victory of Donald Trump, a man with no background in foreign affairs, Steinmeier thought it was important for the EU foreign ministers have a common policy when dealing with an unpredictable Washington. Federica Mogherini, the quasi foreign minister of the European Union, agreed and the meeting was scheduled.

It was rumored at the time the meeting was announced that Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó would not attend but would instead send one of his undersecretaries. It was an indication that Hungary, unlike most of the EU member countries, didn’t believe the emergency meeting was necessary. Since Viktor Orbán, alone among European politicians, rooted for Trump, he hopes that the new president will look upon his regime favorably. That the foreign minister opted not to attend the emergency meeting should give Hungary another gold star in Trump’s book.

Three foreign ministers did not attend the Sunday meeting. Predictably, the UK’s Boris Johnson was absent. After all, Britain is on its way out of the Union and needs to be on especially good terms with the next president of the United States. France’s Jean-Marc Ayrault sent an envoy due to a scheduling conflict. And, as euobserver.com said, “Hungary’s pro-Trump Prime Minister Viktor Orbán also kept his top foreign envoy at home.”

Assessments of the Sunday dinner meeting vary. According to critics, it was far too early for the foreign ministers to get together since we know practically nothing about Trump’s foreign policy objectives. Mogherini, on the other hand, declared the meeting a success, saying that the foreign ministers agreed “to engage with the incoming administration even from this very first week of transition,” meaning right away.

Meanwhile, Szijjártó decided to speak up and explain Hungary’s position. He found “the hysteria caused by the US presidential elections that swept through the European political elite pathetic and at the same time amusing.” Hungary will not take part in this hysteria because it considers Trump’s election good news. The Hungarian government finds the president-elect’s idea to stop “democracy export” beneficial to the world.

It should be noted that Viktor Orbán’s Visegrád 4 friends decided not to follow in the footsteps of their pugnacious Hungarian friend. I wonder whether there was any consultation among the four countries ahead of the Sunday dinner meeting. I suspect there was, but that Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic don’t want any more open confrontations with the rest of the European countries. They gave the EU a hard enough time on the refugee issue and don’t feel like sticking their necks out for Donald Trump, who may be courting Russia at the expense of Eastern Europe.

November 14, 2016

The Orbán government’s corruption unveiled by investigative journalists

Index published an extraordinary piece of investigative journalism on November 11, written by András Dezső, Szabolcs Panyi, and Nikita Hava. The first two reporters are well known for their hard-hitting stories about Jobbik and Fidesz. The third person, who appears on Facebook as Hava Nikita Vladimirovics, calls himself “egy ruszki Magyarországon.” He is well versed in Russian-Hungarian affairs.

The team has been looking into Antal Rogán’s shady business ventures for about a year. As we know, investigative journalism is an expensive affair and Hungarian media outlets are far too poor to undertake such ambitious projects on their own. But thanks to the financial assistance of Transparency International Magyarország and Független Médiaközpont (Independent Media Center), plus of course a lot of hard work, these three young journalists did a bang-up job. I should add that for the Georgian aspects of this complicated corruption case Tazo Kupreishvili, editor-in-chief of News.On.ge, assisted the Hungarian team.

The article is a detailed account of the close working relationship between Balázs Kertész, a lawyer who has been making a concerted effort to stay out of public view, and Antal Rogán, currently the number 3 man in the Orbán government. His job title, minister in charge of the prime minister’s cabinet office, is intentionally meaningless. His real task is to spend government money on Fidesz propaganda. He was responsible for funding the anti-immigrant campaign, including staging the referendum. Rogán has long been suspected of being corrupt. But between 2006 and 2014, when he was mayor of Budapest’s posh District V, he gained the reputation of being one of the most corrupt officials in the Orbán administration.

If the relationship between Lőrinc Mészáros and Viktor Orbán is often described as that of a mafia boss and his front man and if the Simicska-Orbán alliance was more like a business partnership, with Simicska acting as a financial adviser, the Kertész-Rogán alliance is a combination of the two. According to the authors, Balázs Kertész is the person who came up with all the schemes that made Rogán (and I assume Kertész as well) a very rich man.

Balázs Kertész at Antal Rogán's inauguration of minister

Balázs Kertész at Antal Rogán’s inauguration as minister

Although stories about Rogán’s more than shady real estate deals have been circulating for only a few years, he began his unsavory career much earlier. His and Kertész’s names first came up in 2003 when the K&H Equities scandal surfaced. A stockbroker named Attila Kulcsár was running a Ponzi scheme. Fidesz, then in opposition, tried to dump the whole scandal on the socialists, but it turned out that several people close to Fidesz were also involved. Among them, Antal Rogán (age 29) and Balázs Kertész (age 27), whose names were found in Kulcsár’s VIP list. Although the members of the parliamentary committee that investigated the case had questions about the two men, thanks to Péter Polt, the chief prosecutor, their names were dropped from the list of suspects.

This early brush with the law was nothing in comparison to what happened in District V. Balázs Kertész was the first to become a member of the district council. Soon enough he was followed by two of his friends from Fidelitas days, Antal Rogán and András Puskás. (Fidelitas is Fidesz’s youth organization, a place where aspiring young politicians learn the tools of the trade.) In no time the trio was running the show, despite the fact that the mayor was a socialist. In 2006 Rogán decided to run for district mayor against the socialist Pál Steiner and won easily. By that time Kertész was deeply involved in the district’s finances. Apparently he was the one who came up with the idea of selling expensive pieces of real estate at below market prices. He designed the transactions in such a way that neither he nor Rogán would suffer any legal consequences from cheating the district. The buyers, of course, had to pay a “surcharge”/kickback, apparently thousands of euros. How much of this money went to Kertész we don’t know.

Kertész also seems to be behind Rogán’s lucrative residency bond business. After Kertész left politics in 2010, he returned to the prestigious law firm where he began his legal career. A couple of years later, most likely in 2013, he joined a much less distinguished law firm. It was this firm that got the job of handling the administrative work for the applicants for residency bonds. Their fee was €5,000, and we are talking about 2,000-3,000 applicants so far. Of course, we don’t know whether, in addition, the Kertész-Rogán duo received kickbacks from the intermediaries abroad who got €50,000 per transaction. I suspect yes.

The most spectacular achievement of the Index team was the discovery of two videos. One proved that Balázs Kertész, Antal Rogán, and Árpád Habony met, despite Rogán’s denial. The other showed three highly-placed Georgian businessmen discussing a power plant to be financed by the Hungarian Eximbank. The parties to this discussion were the representative of the Bank of Georgia in Hungary, a Georgian-Israeli businessman, and the former prime minister of Georgia (2009-2012), Nika Gilauri, who earlier had served as minister of energy and minister of finance.

Unfortunately the meeting took place on a very noisy street, so not everything is audible. It is, however, clear that 5% of the Eximbank loan for the power plant has to be paid to Balázs Kertész. It is also obvious from the partial transcript that the money should be paid in advance in order “for them to start working.” I assume the work entails convincing Eximbank to grant the loan. The man who most likely has that job is András Puskás, deputy CEO of business operations at Eximbank, who used to be Rogán’s right-hand man and deputy in District V. So far no decision has been reached on the Georgians’ request for $68 million. And after these revelations, I doubt that they will see a penny of the promised loan. Whether Kertész has already banked over $3 million on this deal is unknown.

From Index’s article as well as some other commentaries we get a sense of how Kertész and Rogán have reacted to the probe. First, Kertész must have known for some time that journalists were after him. As the investigative team noted, “the closer we got to him, the more evidence of his existence disappeared.”

Second, there is a very good possibility that Kertész and Rogán laid a trap to discredit whatever Péter Juhász, Együtt’s sleuth, and the journalists might uncover. They enlisted a couple of “reliable” Fidesz sources to claim, independently of one another, that Balázs Kertész had been arrested by TEK and that many hundreds of forints were also impounded. The story was, of course, a hoax. If newspapers reported a false story, it would cast doubt on any subsequent stories about Kertész they might publish. At least one Hungarian newspaper fell into the trap.

Third, it is hard to believe how stupidly Antal Rogán tries to cover up his misdeeds. He thinks that if he denies that something ever happened it will simply go away. He denied his helicopter trip (documented by Népszabadság) and in this instance denied his meetings with Habony and Kertész (where again, hard evidence proves the contrary).

Fourth, perhaps his stupidest move once the Index story broke was to remove the recent picture showing Kertész at his inauguration as minister. For such an occasion a politician can normally invite his family members and a very small number of his closest friends. By removing the picture he practically admitted his guilt.

The most important question still remains. How much does Viktor Orbán know about all this? He has stuck with Rogán through thick and thin in the last couple of years, so my suspicion is that he is privy to everything.

November 13, 2016