Tag Archives: Mehriban Aliyeva

Viktor Orbán’s friends: Vladimir Putin, Recep Erdoğan, and Ilham Aliyev

Yesterday around noon Moscow time the Kremlin published a short announcement regarding a telephone conversation that had taken place earlier that day. It was brief and to the point: Vladimir Putin and Viktor Orbán “discussed current issues on the bilateral agenda, in particular the implementation of agreements reached during the visit to Budapest by the President of Russia on February 2, 2017. The two leaders also stressed the importance of the construction, carried out by Rosatom State Corporation, of two new power units at the Paks Nuclear Power Plant, as well as joint gas projects.” About half an hour later the news of the telephone conversation was also announced in Budapest. It was even briefer than the Russian version. “Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and President Vladimir Putin held a telephone conversation about current questions of Hungarian-Russian bilateral relations.”

Most newspapers and internet sites republished the short MTI announcement without any comment or interpretation. I found only two exceptions. One was 168 Óra, which was certain that it was Viktor Orbán who called the Russian president “only a few hours after he had returned from the NATO summit in Brussels,” implying that perhaps the topic of conversation wasn’t so much Paks, as the Kremlin communiqué claimed. Perhaps Viktor Orbán reported to Putin on his impressions of the NATO summit.

The other was a longer opinion piece by Gábor Stier, Magyar Nemzet’s Russian expert. Stier is a pro-Russian journalist specializing in foreign affairs. As opposed to 168 Óra, he is certain that it was Putin who called Orbán. Stier might be a great friend of Russia, but even he doesn’t believe that the conversation between the two men was about “current bilateral relations.” Putin visited Budapest only a couple of months ago, and about two weeks ago the two men spent some time together in Beijing at the summit of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative. Stier also can’t imagine that, now that all the obstacles have been removed to the financing and construction of Paks, the nuclear power plant merited a telephone call.

So, why was such an encounter arranged? Stier believes that the key to the content of the exchange lies in the brief Russian reference to “joint gas projects” which, in Stier’s opinion, is the construction of the “Turkish Stream,” which “would benefit not only Moscow and Budapest but the whole Mediterranean region.” Now that U.S. policy toward Europe is changing and “its relations with Russia may become more pragmatic, there is a chance that Washington will not hinder these plans,” says Stier. In that case, he believes, Berlin will be less antagonistic to the project. Apparently on the same day Putin also phoned Borut Pahor, president of Slovenia, an event that, according to Stier, supports his interpretation of this unexpected telephone conversation between Putin and Orbán. This second telephone conversation, however, was prompted by the twenty-fifth anniversary of diplomatic relations between Russia and an independent Slovenia, which took place on May 25, 1992. I’m therefore less sure than Stier that the phone call had anything to with the pipeline.

Given the paucity of information, all of the above is just conjecture, but the frequency of Putin-Orbán meetings and telephone conversations is striking. So is Orbán’s increasing diplomatic isolation, at least when it comes to Western countries. On the other hand, relations with autocratic countries like Turkey and Azerbaijan are excellent.

Let’s take a look at Turkish-Hungarian relations of late. President Recep Erdoğan was supposed to visit Hungary already in 2016, but the trip had to be postponed because of the Turkish military coup that occurred in July. According to the latest information, the trip might take place soon, to coincide with the opening of the restored “türbe” (tomb) of Gül Baba (d. 1541), a dervish poet and companion of Sultan Suleiman the Magnificent, which is in the hills of Buda.

There was also at least one telephone conversation between the two men that Orbán initiated. Orbán congratulated the Turkish president on his victory at the polls that made him an autocrat for life. In return, Erdoğan suggested bilateral talks in Beijing at the summit. At that time Erdoğan also invited Orbán to Ankara, which Orbán naturally gladly accepted.

Recep Erdoğan in Budapest in 2013

I might also add that while Orbán often justifies his anti-Muslim stance and Hungarians’ unwillingness to have Muslims in their country by reminding the world of the 150-year occupation of the central part of Hungary by the Ottomans, a veritable love affair is going on between the Hungarian and Turkish governments.

Not too many people are aware of the fact that Suleiman the Magnificent (1494-1566) died during the Battle of Szigetvár in Hungary. His body was taken back to Istanbul to be buried, but his heart, liver, and some other organs were buried just outside of Szigetvár. The Battle of Szigetvár is also an important site for Hungarians, who celebrate the heroism of the captain of the fort, Miklós/Nikola Zrínyi/Zrinski, who also died there. In any case, the Turkish government has generously contributed to archaeological work conducted to find the exact location of Suleiman’s burial. For its part, the Hungarian government is planning enormous busts of both Suleiman and Zrínyi. A rather strange way to commemorate the victory of 20,000 invading Ottoman troops over 2,500 Hungarian-Croatian defenders.

Another politician Orbán has warm relations with is Ilham Aliyev, president of Azerbaijan, who visited Budapest in 2014. Two years later Viktor Orbán and his wife paid a visit to Baku, where the two men agreed to repeat their visits to each other’s capitals. This year it is Aliyev’s turn to visit. Mind you, the Hungarian media had to learn from Azeri sources that their president will visit Budapest in October. Aliyev inherited “the throne” from his father in 2003, and he has been president ever since. This spring Aliyev designated his wife, Mehriban Aliyeva, first vice president. She would replace him in the event of his death. In 2016 at Orbán’s suggestion President János Áder bestowed a high state decoration on Aliyeva.

Putin, Erdoğan, Aliev—these are the people Orbán feels comfortable with. And they are are the ones who are willing to visit the Hungarian capital on a somewhat regular basis. A sad commentary on Hungary’s standing in the world of diplomacy.

May 27, 2017

Viktor Orbán and his entourage in Baku

Not so long ago I wrote about Viktor Orbán’s fallacious theories regarding the direct connection between economic growth and authoritarian regimes. He looked at some of the countries that had plenty of gas, oil, and in some cases minerals and attributed their economic success in recent years to the nature of their regimes instead of to their natural resources. Ever since he became prime minister in 2010 he has been shamelessly courting the dictators or autocrats of these countries, only to discover that some of them are currently in deep economic trouble. One of these countries is Azerbaijan. I will not go into the details of the shocking deal Orbán made with President Ilham Aliyev concerning the fate of an Azeri murderer who was serving his sentence in a Hungarian jail. Anyone who’s interested in the particulars can find plenty of information on this blog.

At one point Orbán was even hoping that Hungary would issue bonds in Azeri currency, the manat, but the idea died a quiet death. And a good thing it did since the manat, which was worth 350 forints in January 2015, today trades at only 182 forints. Azerbaijan is in a deep recession (3.3%) with a 12% deficit and an inflation of 14%. I read somewhere that it is unable to pay for military equipment it ordered from Russia and the Russians are getting antsy.

Hungary, however, remains a steadfast ally of Azerbaijan. Not only did Viktor Orbán, his wife, and practically half of the Hungarian cabinet visit Aliyev in Baku, but it was announced during the trip by Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó that the Hungarian Export-Import Bank has opened a $200 million line of credit to Azerbaijan to expand bilateral economic cooperation with Hungary. Aside from this announcement, the Hungarian media couldn’t discover any earth shattering reasons for the trip, certainly nothing concrete regarding “bilateral economic cooperation.” Although Viktor Orbán tried to give the impression that Azeri-Hungarian trade has soared since the Orbán government decided to treat Azerbaijan as a “stable partner, ally, and friend” of Hungary, the truth is that Hungarian exports to Azerbaijan today are only slightly above where they were in 2009. In fact, between 2010 and 2012 they decreased dramatically. Azeri exports to Hungary during the same period were flat.

Members of the cabinet nonetheless keep insisting that Azeri-Hungarian bilateral economic cooperation will be important to Hungary’s economy. Mihály Varga, minister of economy, spoke fleetingly about cooperation in the energy field, pharmaceuticals, and healthcare. Varga went on to emphasize Azerbaijan’s fantastic development in the past few years and stressed that the country is “the most important partner” in the South-Caucasian region. Which is not to say much. Hungarian exports to Azerbaijan amounted to a mere $65 million. Sándor Fazekas, minister of agriculture, chimed in, claiming that “Azerbaijan is the most promising agricultural partner of Hungary” because “since 2012 our exports to the country have quadrupled,” but, again, given the low level of trade volume that doesn’t mean much.

The Hungarian politicians felt obliged to say something about the changed circumstances of the Azeri economy. As Szijjártó cryptically put it, “we must place Azeri-Hungarian economic cooperation in a different dimension.” A Mandiner opinion piece sarcastically remarked that the “new dimension is the $200 million line of credit extended to Azerbaijan.”

Every time Orbán visits a country that is not exactly a democratic paradise the Hungarian media, with the exception of sycophantic publications like Magyar Idők, Magyar Hírlap, and Pesti Srácok, point out Orbán’s servile gestures toward his hosts. This trip was no exception. Csaba Káncz, formerly an advisor to the European Union, wrote that Orbán’s trip to Azerbaijan will not produce any tangible results,“it will [only] bring shame to the country.” One of the reasons for this shame is that Orbán and his wife lay a wreath on the grave of Heidar Aliyev, father of the current president of Azerbaijan, and his wife, Zarifa Aliyeva. The elder Aliyev’s political career was infamous. As first secretary of the Azeri communist party he ruled the country uninterrupted between 1969 and 2003 when he appointed his son to be his successor. Since 1995 there has been not one free election in the country. The last election, in 2014, was so free and fair that the results were announced the day before the actual election. Currently there are more than 100 political prisoners in Azerbaijan.

Led by Viktor and Anikó Orbán the Hungarian delegation is visiting the grave site of Heidar Aliyev and his wife

Led by Viktor and Anikó Orbán, the Hungarian delegation visits the grave site of Heidar Aliyev and his wife

In light of Azerbaijan’s dictatorship (in force ever since 1920) it was jarring that the Hungarian prime minister praised “the leaders of the country who have made Azerbaijan one of the most respected and often envied countries in the world.” People rarely appreciate the success of others, but sooner or later hard work brings triumph, and of late Azerbaijan’s “weight and prestige have grown.” Looking at it from the vantage point of Europe, Azerbaijan is successful and “committed to cooperation between East and West.” Surely, Orbán didn’t want to say much about Azerbaijan’s current economic and financial woes. He merely suggested diversification, in which “Hungary can be a useful partner” and which will make Azerbaijan even more successful and stronger.

A pilgrimage to the grave of the elder Aliyevs wasn’t enough groveling before the Azeri dictator. Viktor Orbán decided to honor the wife of the president, Mehriban Aliyeva, who serves as chairperson of the Aliyev Foundation named after Heidar Aliyev, by conferring on her the Commander’s Cross of the Order of Merit. And then the Hungarian entourage packed up and left. Another pretty useless and very expensive trip.

March 7, 2016