An open clash of views: The Merkel-Orbán meeting

It was in the middle of May that Népszava learned from Fidesz and government sources that Viktor Orbán had received an invitation from Chancellor Merkel and that Orbán, on his way to Berlin, would stop over in Bavaria. There he could expect a warm welcome from leading politicians of the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (CSU), like Horst Seehofer, minister of the interior in the German government, and Wolfgang Schäuble, president of the Bundestag.

The invitation was interpreted in Hungary as a tribute of sorts to Orbán’s landslide electoral victory and also a kind of appreciation of the Orbán government’s defense of the Hungarian section of the Schengen border. A year ago, Népszava commented, German-Hungarian relations had reached rock bottom, from where they could only go up. As Géza Jeszenszky, foreign minister between 1990 and 1994, pointed out, Orbán will be with us for at least four more years, and threatening him with expulsion from EPP didn’t work; it was time to change tactics. Perhaps a friendly approach will be more successful in “taming” the Hungarian prime minister. Well, in my opinion, Jeszenszky has had enough experience with Viktor Orbán’s modus operandi that he should know that a friendlier approach is even more useless than a head-on confrontation.

In mid-May both the Hungarian and the German press also interpreted Merkel’s invitation as a gesture to Horst Seehofer, but, as later developments proved, if that is what Merkel had in mind, her strategy didn’t work. Seehofer was not moved by Merkel’s invitation of his Hungarian friend and threatened Merkel with his resignation. For weeks both the Hungarian and the German media were full of the German political crisis and paid little attention to Orbán’s pending visit to Berlin. In any case, the Hungarian government media was burying Merkel. According to Magyar Idők, Merkel’s fall is “both necessary and unavoidable.” While Merkel is on the way out, the Hungarian prime minister has reached such heights that he, the prime minister of a country of 10 million, can stand up against the chancellor of a Germany of 80 million people.

Meanwhile, behind the scenes, Angela Merkel began bilateral negotiations with 14 member states, including Hungary, about an arrangement by which these countries would take over migrants who were originally registered there. Merkel claimed that her negotiations were successful while Viktor Orbán, together with his Czech and Polish colleagues, denied the existence of any such agreement. Pesti Srácok went so far as to talk about “Merkel’s cheap lies,” only to learn a few days later from Viktor Orbán’s interview with Bild that he is ready to negotiate with Merkel about taking back migrants from Germany and Austria.

A few hours before the Merkel-Orbán meeting took place, two Hungarian political scientists decided to offer their predictions on the possible outcome of the talks. One of them, Dániel Hegedűs, who teaches at Humboldt University of Berlin, believed that at the encounter Orbán will have the upper hand because “Merkel is fighting for her political survival” and therefore will have to make serious concessions. Péter Krekó, an analyst with the Hungarian think tank Political Capital, looked upon the meeting “as a symbolic encounter by which the chancellor is sending a message to the German voters that her government is not opposed to the hard anti-migrant stance” Orbán represents.

Well, this is not exactly how the meeting turned out. At least this isn’t what we saw at the joint press conference after the encounter. HVG gave a minute-by-minute description of the press conference with the title “Merkel and Orbán almost had a quarrel at the press conference.” There was no compromise on the refugee issue. Merkel said of the meeting that “there were common points of view, but also opposing ones, as was to be expected. We see the migration issue very differently.” Orbán concurred, saying that “what we already knew has become clear: the chancellor and I see the world differently. Nevertheless, we strive for a common solution.”

But that was just the beginning. The arguments went on. Orbán complained about accusations of a Hungarian lack of solidarity. “It hurts us when Germany accuses us of showing no solidarity.” In fact, Hungary is “taking an immense load off Germany’s shoulders” by guarding its southern border with Serbia and Croatia. “I told the chancellor she can count on the fact that the southern Hungarian border is protected: migrants are not coming to Austria or Germany. And it will stay that way.” This argument didn’t move Angela Merkel, who countered that “the difference between us is that we always have to remember that it is people who are coming to us. It is a question of Europe’s basic humanity. Europe cannot simply ignore hardship and suffering.”

Western sources don’t dwell on an Orbán claim which the Hungarian media found outrageous. Orbán apparently lied about the number of refugees who want to enter Hungary from the south and from there travel to Austria and Germany. During the press conference he claimed that the fence prevents 4,000-5,000 migrants a day from entering the territory of the European Union. He somewhat dramatically announced that 8,000 men and women guard the border 24/7 with weapons in hand to defend Europe. The truth is that the migration pressure on Hungary’s southern border has trickled to practically nothing. In the last four days not one migrant tried to get into Hungary. In the whole month of June the number was 18. Yes, 18. Just yesterday Magyar Idők reported that the government is withdrawing the 4,000 soldiers who have been serving along the border for the obvious reason that there is no need for them.

The Hungarian anti-government media claim that Orbán is living in an alternate universe, and they cannot get over the fact that he had the temerity to come out with such ridiculous numbers. But the Orbán propaganda machine is already at work. Zoltán Kovács, Viktor Orbán’s communication wizard, is preparing the ground for the eventuality that a huge migrant invasion, as large as it was in 2015, is gathering force in Greece. He bases his opinion on a statement made by the mayor of Thessaloniki, who maintains that currently there are more migrants in Greece than there were in 2015. Kovács said that it was this mass of people in Greece that Orbán was talking about in Berlin. If there was no fence, these people would already be in the European Union. Is it true? We don’t know. Why does Kovács rely on the word of the mayor of Thessaloniki instead of some verifiable official data? Or, can we believe Origo’s report from Bosnia about thousands of refugees who overwhelm the cities? Origo’s regard for the facts is nonexistent.

But let’s go back to the Merkel-Orbán negotiations. It was evident from the press conference that, contrary to earlier predictions, Merkel didn’t crumble and didn’t give up her long-held views on the refugees and the common European way of handling them. So, what happened? Was her position not as shaky as some commentators thought?

I’ll offer a couple of possible explanations for Merkel’s courageous stand on the issue. First of all, Seehofer’s position was never as strong as his bluster indicated. CSU was losing support, and the resignation he threatened Merkel with, if accepted, would have ended his political career. Second, although Sebastian Kurz threatened to close Austria’s southern border if Germany sets up transit zones along the Austrian border, Kurz and Seehofer, who were having a conversation concurrently with the Merkel-Orbán talks, played down the dispute, claiming they had found common ground. So, it seems that the noise has subsided and most of the characters involved in this drama have thought the better of it. But Orbán doesn’t want to appear weak. His parting message was that he will lead a long legal battle on whether Hungary has to take back any refugees.

July 5, 2018