It was a week ago that Viktor Orbán, allegedly fulfilling the wishes of the Hungarian people for whom the most important value is the family, announced a program designed to remedy the “demographic tragedy” that has beset Hungary since the 1970s. Every year fewer children are born and the percentage of senior citizens keeps growing. In the last 10 to 15 years emigration has also been high, and the Orbán government rigidly prevents most immigration. The result is a growing labor shortage and an aging population. Viktor Orbán’s latest “family package” promises to turn around this close to 50-year-old trend.
At first blush the financial package for families sounded impressive. Every married couple under the age of 40 whom a bank deemed credit-worthy would start off with $35,000 in low-interest loans. Each time they had a child, repayment on the loan could be postponed for three years, and after a third child the whole loan would be forgiven. If a woman was ready to give birth to four children, she would not pay income tax for the rest of her life. Grandparents willing to become babysitters would also receive financial compensation. There would even be free money toward a car that can seat seven people.
The announcement shouldn’t have come as a surprise. First of all, Katalin Novák, the undersecretary in charge of family affairs, was becoming perhaps the most visible member of the government. Earlier, Hungary celebrated the “Year of the Family.” It organized a family summit, which turned out to be a gathering of the far right, including the homophobic World Congress of Families. The latest “national consultation” on the families was also a sure sign that Viktor Orbán had already decided on some kind of family policy for which he needed “authorization” from the people.
Poster urging citizens to fill out the “national consultation on families”
The government is proud of its solution to the demographic catastrophe and is annoyed with all those who have been pointing out its flaws. The charge is that for the opposition “nothing is good enough.” The independent media as well as the opposition parties are just nitpicking and thus are ruining the genuine joy of all those people who will now be able to afford larger families.
Yes, in the last week numerous studies appeared criticizing the Orbán government’s way of dealing with the problem. Some of the critics even question the validity of the claim that there is a decrease in the population across the board within the European Union. According to a Eurostat graph showing demographic changes in the last 30 years, there are several countries, including Ireland, Norway, Sweden, and France, where the population has increased. In those countries, family assistance is no longer administered in the traditional way. Instead of the Hungarian experiment, which foresees many years of full-time motherhood, in these countries the emphasis is on encouraging the early return of mothers to the workforce by providing facilities and amenities that make the lives of parents, whether married or not, more manageable and thus enable them to have more children.
Ivett Szalma, a research fellow at the Institute of Sociology of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, wrote an excellent article on the subject in qubit.hu. She chose to focus on four countries–the Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, and France–where in 1995 the birthrate was extremely low and tried to ascertain how they boosted their birthrate. Why did they succeed while Hungary failed? The economic uncertainties that Hungary and other post-communist countries had to cope with after 1990 certainly had a negative effect on fertility. During that same period the number of university students also grew, with young people postponing marriage until it was perhaps too late to start a family. At least this was part of the explanation offered for the precipitous drop in the birthrate in Hungary in the last 30 years. But as OECD’s Family Database 2018 shows, the average Swedish or Dutch woman, when she gives birth to her first child, is older than the average Hungarian woman, and yet overall fertility is greater. For example, in the Netherlands the average age is almost 30, as opposed to Hungary’s 27. As Ivett Szalma notes, “there must be some extra factor at work” in countries like Ireland, Sweden, the Netherlands, and France, with their higher fertility rates.
The goal of the Swedish family policy is not so much an increase in the number of children as the new mothers’ return to the workforce. One way of achieving that goal is to encourage fathers to take over some of the burdens that accompany the arrival of a child. Parents are entitled to 16 months of family leave, but only if the father spends at least three months looking after the child. The timing of these 16 months of support is flexible. They can be taken at any time until the child reaches the age of eight.
The French child policy also aims at the early return of new mothers to the workforce. The government reimburses expenses incurred for hiring a babysitter. In addition, the French have a well-developed network of nursery schools and kindergartens. At as early as two months, a French baby can be placed in a nursery school. Three-year-old children can enroll in a kindergarten where they receive a free lunch and all-day care if necessary. Both child support and taxation favor families with two or more children.
In the Netherlands, families with children receive a guarantee of flexible working conditions. Half of Dutch women and one-third of men work only part time while their children are young.
So, would the adoption of any of these models achieve the necessary 2.1 fertility rate in Hungary? The answer is no, despite the fact that ever since 2013 Hungary has been spending over 3.5% of its GDP on family assistance, almost as much as the United Kingdom, Denmark, France, Sweden, and Luxembourg. This sum will increase substantially after the adoption of this latest family package. What does Hungary need in addition to monetary incentives? Better healthcare, improved educational facilities, and higher unemployment benefits in case one of the parents loses his or her job. In addition, nursery schools are scarce in Hungary, and most critics are skeptical of the latest promise of 21,000 new nursery schools. A similar promise had been given earlier and nothing came of it.
Another sociologist, Dorottya Szikra, a senior researcher at the Social Science Research Center of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, is critical of the government’s policy of favoring the better-off middle classes while leaving behind the truly poor, who have most of the children. Sociological research shows that most couples, if they decide to have children, think in terms of two children. She finds it unlikely that they would produce four children just to have a couple of million forints for a larger car.
This new family package, although it has an implicit minimum income level (basically, poor Hungarians, notably including Gypsies, need not apply), sets no upper limit above which no financial incentives would be offered. Let’s take an example. István Tiborcz and his wife Ráhel Orbán already have two children, but I’m sure more will be coming in the future. This incredibly wealthy couple, enriched by the taxpayers’ unwitting “wedding present” of 1,300 forints per person, will be entitled, at least theoretically, to take advantage of these financial benefits.
People can also exploit the plan for financial gain. For instance, a couple can take out a low-interest loan and use the proceeds to invest in government bonds with a higher yield, what is known in the financial world as a carry trade. After all, newlyweds can use these loans for anything they wish. And they can pay back the loan, make a little extra money in the process, and produce not a single child.
The plan may be flawed and probably won’t produce its intended result. But it will certainly help the government raise its popularity just before the EP elections. And perhaps there is enough ammunition in that package to last all the way until October, when municipal elections will be held. Who doesn’t like a government that gives money away?
Mussolini tried it, (L’Opera Nazionale per la Maternitá ed Infanzia), and failed. Hitler tried it, (Lebensborn) and he also failed. Now the little mini-Mussolini, the viktor imitates his idols. Fascism is in a full swing in Hungary.
Success may be at the polls for the viktor and his band of thieves, because Hungarians love to elect dictators, but the family program invented by the viktor will not be a success story at the delivery rooms of the hospitals in Hungary.
Re Mussolini a story (fdon’t know whether this is an Urban legend though):
When the number of babies in Southern Italy was found to be too low he had the glorious ide of scaling back the electricity systems in the villages – having no light in the evening to read or play cards, no radio etc might move the people to try other activities … 🙂
Don’t know if that worked however, if yes – wouldn’t that be a good idea for Hungary too?
PS and rather OT:
Swedish scientists found a strong correlation between the number of storks and the number of births – so money should be spent there, building new nests and feeding them … 🙂
The insentives will surely tip the balance with some couples considering another child. It isnt sure however whether the birth rates will grow as different negative factors may discourage other couples at the same time.
The most important Q is whether the money is well spent to achieve the goals and at first glance the successful policies are different.
Talking about money, there are no funds in the 2019 budget for these programs, even the gov is talking about H2 implementation. It is to be seen whether the gov will reallocate funds or will increase the budget deficit for the year (unlikely imo, as there were already warnings from Ecofin re the excessive deficit even before these announcements).
The envisaged 21k new nursery places compare with 42k existing, which clearly indicates a grave deficiency in this area.
Finally, the high emigration rates bleed the whole drive from the other end without any remedial action in sight.
My guess is that this is an alternative propaganda direction to replace, at least in part, the already very threadbear Soros/migrants panels.
Definitely laughable. Pitiable in its niiveté. Evil in provoking more pain on the long-haul. Does the world REALLY need MORE population??? More of the SAME… ??? Resulting in MORE hunger, more poverty, more potentially homeless.
The likelihood that the future holds much good for Hungary in the FUTURE is infinitessimally small…
With the global warming due to the increased needless stuff we produce and sell, what is extra population good for… ??? Income insecurity is BOUND to increase over time.
Of course Orban actaully has his reelection only in mind…
Boggles the mind of any human aware of world state of affairs.
Wakeeeee, wakeeeee….
Andybabe
Valid points: while I see nothing wrong with eg. 40 million French or Brits, 6 million Czechs or Huns, the OECD world doesn’t have any population growth problems, the developing world has.
The OECD problem is consumption = econ growth which uses more resources, eg. US, China.
Notably even the pretty volumenous IPCC Reports on climate change don’t discuss the problems with population growth and control, although the UN Population Fund quietly works on it, distributing contraceptives as well.
https://www.unfpa.org/press/global-leaders-commit-support-unfpa-london-family-planning-summit
All too timid, too little, too much PC in the policies, communication and approaches. The world wide message should be “we are extinguishing ourselves by overpopulation and overconsumption” similar to the anti-smoking campaigns.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=2049564261794352&set=a.115453845205413&type=3&theater
“there are several countries, including Ireland, Norway, Sweden, and France, where the population has increased.”
Official statistics breaking down the fertility rates by religion are strictly forbidden in France, but Pew center estimated in 2017 the total fertility rates for 2015-2020 as follows:
Country: (for Muslims) vs (for non-Muslims)
France: 2.9 vs 1.9
Sweden: 2.8 vs 1.8
So the non-Muslim population has been declining with all the smart policies of the Swedish and French governments. The population increase came only from the increase of the Muslim population
Median age in 2016.
Country: (for Muslims) vs (for non-Muslims)
France: 27 vs 43
Germany: 31 vs 47
Belgium: 29 vs 44
Italy: 33 vs 47
UK: 28 vs 41
Switzerland: 30 vs 44
Austria: 30 vs 45
Sweden: 31 vs 42
Spain 33 vs 44
http://www.pewforum.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/7/2017/11/PF_11.29.17_muslims-update-22.png
http://www.pewforum.org/2017/11/29/europes-growing-muslim-population/
EU 28 + Switzerland + Norway:
http://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/7/2017/11/PF_11.29.17_muslims-update-03.png
These stats always assume that (the children of) Muslims will be Muslims – that’s nonsense imho, just as children of Christians (like me and much of my generation) were born as Christians but left their church as soon as possible.
I know a few Turks – extreme example is the ex-leader of the German Green party Cem Özdemir.
I’m sure he’s as a-religious as I – null, zero, no way …
“Riddah (apostasy) refers to when a Muslim becomes a disbeliever by saying a clear statement to that effect, or by uttering words which imply that (i.e., which imply kufr or disbelief), or he does something that implies that (i.e., an action which implies kufr or disbelief).
2 – What constitutes apostasy
The matters which constitute apostasy are divided into four categories:
(a)Apostasy in beliefs, such as associating others with Allaah, denying Him, or denying an attribute which is proven to be one of His attributes, or by affirming that Allaah has a son. Whoever believes that is an apostate and a disbeliever.
(b)Apostasy in words, such as insulting Allaah or the Messenger (peace and blessings of Allaah be upon him).
(c)Apostasy in actions, such as throwing the Qur’an into a filthy place, because doing that shows disrespect towards the words of Allaah, so it is a sign that one does not believe. Other such actions include prostrating to an idol or to the sun or moon.
(d)Apostasy by omission, such as not doing any of the rituals of Islam, or turning away from following it altogether.
Riddah, Schmiddah.
Religion ruins everything.
” 3 – What is the ruling on the apostate?
If a Muslim apostatizes and meets the conditions of apostasy – i.e., he is of sound mind, an adult and does that of his own free will – then his blood may be shed with impunity. He is to be executed by the Muslim ruler or by his deputy – such as the qaadi or judge, and he is not to not be washed (after death, in preparation for burial), the funeral prayer is not to be offered for him and he is not to be buried with the Muslims.
The evidence that the apostate is to be executed is the words of the Prophet (peace and blessings of Allaah be upon him): “Whoever changes his religion, execute him.” (Narrated by al-Bukhaari, 2794). What is meant by religion here is Islam (i.e., whoever changes from Islam to another religion).
https://islamqa.info/en/answers/20327/why-is-the-apostate-to-be-executed-in-islam
“The Prophet (peace and blessings of Allaah be upon him) said: “It is not permissible to shed the blood of a Muslim who bears witness that there is no god except Allaah and that I am His Messenger, except in one of three cases: a soul for a soul (i.e., in the case of murder); a married man who commits adultery; and one who leaves his religion and splits form the jamaa’ah (main group of Muslims).” (Narrated by al-Bukhaari, 6878; Muslim, 1676) ”
“
@wolfi7777, 3:39 am
I am skeptical about your contention. Islam is very clear – dangerously so – that ‘once a Muslim, always a Muslim”. Apostasy is not to be tolerated and in some quarters warrants a death sentence. Thus within the closely-knit Islamic community attention is given so that children do not wander away from the True Faith. True, Cat’lics tried a similar policy for a time but without the death sentences.
Let me summarize. If a Muslim leaves Islam, other Muslims are religiously mandated to kill him/her.
I think you are outside your depth on this. I found many sources that disagree with you. https://www.alislam.org/library/articles/is-it-true-that-if-a-muslim-leaves-or-denounces-his-faith-in-islam-he-will-be-killed/
I am not a Muslim scholar, of course.
Your source claims that that Quran does not explicitly mandate death for leaving Islam. The source I quoted says that the Hadith obliges the death penalty. There is no contradiction between the two.
Remark: when reading Quran, you should know that the chronologically later suras override the earlier ones in case of a contradiction.
No, you are not a Muslim scholar, so it is not your place to make such a strong assertion as “If a Muslim leaves Islam, other Muslims are religiously mandated to kill him/her.” Such a statement leaves no room for the great diversity of Islamic thought and practice. It is a prejudicial assertion. Your source is based on the interpretations of ONE particular Islamic scholar, Muhammad Saalih Al-Munajjid. One who happens to preach an extreme form of Islam, Qutbism. “Qutbism is an Islamist ideology developed by Sayyid Qutb, the figurehead of the Muslim Brotherhood. It has been described as advancing the extremist jihadist ideology of propagating “offensive jihad” – waging jihad in conquest – or “armed jihad in the advance of Islam” Qutbism has gained widespread attention because it is widely believed to have influenced Islamic extremists and terrorists such as Osama bin-Laden.” Curiously, his website was banned in Saudi Arabia for issueing independent fatwas. One indication of the lack of a monolithic perspective regarding apostasy is that of the approximately 50 Muslim majority countries, only half have laws against it. Of those, not all proscribe death as the penalty. (Pew 2016) “…the Islamic world contains multitudes: It is vast… Read more »
Reality Check: Amen to what you wrote.
Which would prove that the interpretation is the important point.
Thank You for your honest insight. I am Muslim from UK. We are not monolithic like some far right wierdos believes. There are over 1.8 billion muslims from across the world and we make for huge portion of humanity. Hungarian fascists has dark history of ethnic cleansing and in todays era they are just capitalising on islamophobia by making us as this world conquering hordes who wants to take over everything. We have many issues that are affecting muslim majority nations. Even though most muslims across the world would never ever know much about Hungary yet this nation demonise us for merely existing just like they did to their Jews. We will always welcome hungarian to muslim countries even though that nation is hostile to muslims and hate our very existence. It is because we muslims do not generalise all hungarians as follower of fascist hungarian fidesz.
@Orionpax I understand Hungarians as part of their history remembered when they were invaded by the Muslim Ottoman Turks. That WAS an invading conquering Muslim horde. And some would think it is rather hypocritical to denounce ‘fascist Hungarians’ when the Muslim world has its own long history of anti-Jewish hostility and other destructive acts. Amongst them: -The destruction of the Banu Qurayza Jews, led by Prophet Muhammad himself. He reportedly had all the male Jews beheaded while the children and women were sold off, with Muhammad himself taking one of the Jewish women, Rayhana. -The Almohad Muslims who ruled Spain from 1121-1269. They gave the Jews and Christians in their domain 3 choices; conversion to Islam, exile or death. Mass martyrdoms of both Jews and Christians were recorded. -The formidable Muslim conqueror Tamerlane who openly boasts of massacring hundreds of thousands of Indian Hindus in his conquest of Delhi. -The Ottoman Empire/Turkey’s mass killings of the mostly Christian Armenians, Assyrians and Greeks. -The then Mufti of Jerusalem being one of Adolf Hitler’s greatest ally and supporter. -The Egyptian expulsion of its Jewish population in the 1950’s. -The Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad, who in a 2003 OIC meeting (the world’s… Read more »
Ali burnt some people and this news reached IbnAbbas, who said, “Had I been in his place I would not have burnt them, as the Prophet (ﷺ) said, ‘Don’t punish (anybody) with Allah’s Punishment.’ No doubt, I would have killed them, for the Prophet (ﷺ) said, ‘If somebody (a Muslim) discards his religion, kill him.’ ”This quotation is not from Al-Munajjid, not from the 20th [Christian] century, but from:
Sahih al-Bukhari 3017
Book 56, Hadith 226
https://sunnah.com/bukhari/56
@Reality Check February 18, 2019 10:22 am You are right in that not all Muslims are murderous fundamentalists. Many however are. Islam is a religion of the sword, and the injunction to kill apostates is as much a commandment or requirement upon the Faithful as Shahada (Faith), Salah (Prayer), Zakat (charity), Sawm (Fasting) or Hajj (Pilgirimage to Mecca). So, in principle the murderous injunction does stand, just as Tappanch points out. The issue is in the compliance or non-compliance with this murderous injunction on the part of a Muslim individual or a group of Muslims. While it is no doubt true that it would be mostly fundamentalist fanatics that would actually murder someone they considered an apostate to Islam, a very large percentage of otherwise perfectly decent Muslim persons would nonetheless see no option but to at least tacitly agree with the fundamentalist position on apostasy – or even feel pangs of guilt for not having the cojones or “bravery” of a fundamentalist murderer – because in their action on apostasy the fundamentalists are after all merely complying with the word of the Prophet, which is by definition the final word and as such nonappealable. The situation with respect to… Read more »
“You are right in that not all Muslims are murderous fundamentalists. Many however are.”
Your statement is as discriminating as almost all by OV&Co!
Mirror Mirror on the Wall!!
Please cut this BS by non-muslims about what is supposed to be and what not islam
A very few are “murderous fundamentalists” indeed. But this is neither special for Muslims nor may be generalised. In states with a majority Muslim population that is no failed state a murderer will be prosecuted, no matter what excuse the murderer had. Yes, there has been a lot of brutality in the name of Islam, but what happened in the name of the other believes? Weren’t Christians at least even bad through the centuries? Take the bible and find out that even the god believed in by Jews, Christians and Moslems is described as mass murderer. You dare to live differently, you want to have another believe? Fine, than I’ll kill you. Indeed no sword was used, but that god murdered by burning or drowning. This is where Jews and Christians come from ideologically. Everybody who tells that only Islam has a violent past is just not telling the truth. Why is the Muslim fundamentalist committing a terror attack against Christians worse than the Christian fundamentalist committing a terror attack against Muslims? All this violence needs to be stopped, but this never will happen by discrimination, this is just bearing the risk of creating more and more extremism.
fully agree!
In your post above you are barging into an open door on my side, István, whilst attributing a bunch of claims to me that I never made in my post. I think that the issue at hand is whether what I wrote was factual and well-informed – or not. If not, I would be much obliged if you would kindly enlighten me in what respect(s) did I err. I am always happy to learn from my betters.
Farkas, my comment was no reaction just on you, but about the entire discussion and so just a part about your comment. I don’t ignore the problem about extremist Muslims. But it is part of and not separate of many kinds of violence that must have an end. It is pretty useless in the entire discussion what a historical figure did whatever to prove that a belief is violent. They all have had their violent rulers, their violent religious leaders and their violent rules. The larger the religion the more crimes have been committed in their name. This means it leads to nothing to discuss these facts, as long as we aren’t talking about this historical fact itself, but about the religion this person had. Another question is why right now the Muslim extremism is so attractive. In some parts of the world this is even quite easy to answer, but why in Europe this happens within families that have not the slightest Muslim background, where sons and daughters went to the IS is indeed an important question for our future safety. But it is to fight the reasons, not every single member of a believe. No more or less… Read more »
@Ferenc
February 19, 2019 4:47 am
Gimme a break, Ferenc.
It is your hysterical, albeit currently politically correct mantra that non-Muslims must not be permitted to write about Islam that is in fact pure BS. Are Islamic studies to be barred in universities, except for Muslims? Are journalists to be barred from writing on Islam, unless they are Muslims? The position you take on this matter is idiotic, absurd and ignorant.
What really matters is whether an author is well informed and has a good grasp of the facts, and that goes for writing responsibly about any group of humans, their ideas, ideologies and belief systems, including Muslims. After all, why should Muslims be given a pass exempting them from something that applies right across the board to everyone else?
Yeah, gimme me break, indeed!
Most of what is written here in this thread I consider uninformed BS!
And what you are trying to imply on me here is utter BS again!
PS: best cross out your political; I just am correct…
we must’ve read different posts … I didn’t see anything remotely hysterical in Feri’s post …
The reference you give here Reality Check, is from the Achmadiyya sect of Islam, which is regarded as a sect of Islamic heretics and apostates by both the Sunni and Shia mainstreams of Islam. The Achmadiyya sect itself is actively denounced and persecuted in all Islamic states, whether Sunni or Shia. With respect, therefore, it is you who are out of your depth in this field, and not Tappanch.
I agree with you , Farkas
A British report from 2007 says young British Muslims are more radical than their parents or grandparents:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1540895/Young-British-Muslims-getting-more-radical.html
And you forgot the opposite; people that were raised in atheist families that become Muslim converts. One French study of native, white French converts to militant Islam remarkably discovered 80% of them came from atheist families;
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30119868
https://www.thelocal.se/20140124/teen-muslim-convert-defies-atheist-parents
Your dated 2007 report was based on a survey by Policy Exchange. This think-tank lost credibility when they published a report based on fabricated information.
I welcome a more credible source of information on the subject if you can furnish it.
I guess we have something like Godwin’s Law, now modified.
Every conversation about Europe inevitably leads to general statements about the true nature of Islam.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin%27s_law
Did you post on the old Guardian talk board Marty … I’m pretty sure Grey (Godwin) didn’t post on Hungarian sites …
So can you quote something more recent and more reliable , Reality Check? My work is about working with Muslim families as well as others in East and West London in UK since 1990. It is true there are a variety of Muslims and how they practise their faith. What I have seen first hand since 1990 is increasing adoption of hijab and nIqab first by the younger generation then the older ones. Also, with the wealth of programmes or books on subjects such as being gay and Catholic, or Jewish or Muslim or leaving Islam or other faiths, you will find that people identifying as Muslim or once Muslim, these people will generally ask for anonymity or write under an assumed name.
@Reality Check, try these;
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/a-growing-following-in-germany-the-dangerous-success-of-radical-young-clerics-a-816642.html
https://www.thelocal.dk/20151013/danish-muslims-more-devout-than-in-years-past
In any case, I understand the supposedly discredited report was a side issue of possible forged receipts, not about the main issue of what the Muslim youths believe.
Let’s best close this discussion by non-muslims about muslims and what is supposed to be according to islam (and what not), with some relevant, inspiring and just mind-blowing music
There was one sentence in today’s blog that especially caught my eye:
“Every married couple under the age of 40 whom a bank deemed credit-worthy would start off with $35,000 in low-interest loans.”
The questions has been raised before in ‘Comments’ here as to how the Roma are to be excluded from benefitting from this scheme. The answer seems to be in the quote above: “deemed credit-worthy”.
If this is the effect of the policy (if not its direct intent) then surely what we are seeing here is just another money-laundering scheme to spread largesse to the younger generation of Fidesz Faithful. How dare the government deliberately exclude a significant – and significantly needy – part of its own citizens from such a programme!?
I don’t think “outrageous” is too strong a word.
Nothing new. Already years ago (before CSOK) there were for housing “below market interest” loans for those who qualified. Besides being below a certain age and having children you needed a bank that would give you that amount. Being creditworthy is a central condition. These benefits are made for those who should be hold dependent AND in Hungary. BTW: Orbán is no fan of brown babies, no matter whether they have parents with a Hungarian passport or not.
It is profoundly ironic, however, that despite all the socioeconomic contortions of the Orbán regime to the contrary, the likelihood is that by mid-century Gypsies will make up nearly half the population in Hungary even without a penny of subsidies from the government for kiddies produced. And by the end of century, who knows, maybe 70-80 percent of the population?
Well done, Hungary! Got rid of most of your enterprising Jews and hard working Shwabs, and currently doing your best to get rid of everyone with even half a brain and tuppence worth of enterprise. And the more you oppress your Gypsies, the more kiddies they produce. If I had a suspicious nature, I would suspect that you are deliberately setting out to put on the map the first Gypsy country in Europe, to the eternal glory of the Holy Crown of Saint Stephen.
Gross “consolidated” debt of the total government in trillions of forints (as reported by MNB today)
2017.12.31: 27.4219
2018.12.31: 29.0325, up by 5.87%
Puzzle.
If the debt is up by 5.9% and the GDP is up by 4.8%,
how can the debt/GDP ratio go down ?
“If the debt is up by 5.9% and the GDP is up by 4.8%,
how can the debt/GDP ratio go down ?”
answer: Itt valami nem stimme!! [something’s not OK here]
recommendation: one has to take all OV’s state data with a big big big grain of salt
@Ferenc and tappanch – I’ve given up believing/accepting any numbers from the HU government.
My wife used to say in Socialism:
They’re doing five year plans – every month a new version – is published!
Totally OT:
It should be “nem stimmel” – from the German: Stimmt nicht! i e That’s not true!
gross debt of the central government (AKK):
2012.12.31: 20.72010
2017.12.31: 26.74621
2018.12.31: 28.68817, up by 7.26% y/y,
up by 38.46% in the last 6 years.
The MNB data above does not contain the ExImBank debt.
With the ExImBank debt, the “consolidated” gross debt was about
29.8319 trillion.
Proof:
“Az államháztartás bruttó, konszolidált, névértéken számításba vett (maastrichti) adóssága 2018 végén a GDP 69,0 százaléka volt (29032 milliárd forint). […] Az Eximbank adósságát is figyelembe véve a szektor maastrichti adóssága a pénzügyi számlák módszertana alapján számolt 69,0 százaléknál 1,9 százalékponttal magasabb, a GDP 70,9 százaléka volt”
https://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/sk-pszla-elozetes-2018-q4.pdf
Therefore
2018 GDP = 29.0325/0.69 = 42.07609 trillion;
ExImBank debt = 42.07609*0.019 = 0.7994 trillion
29.0325+0.7994 = 29.8319
Now look at
https://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/sk-pszla-elozetes-2017-q4.pdf
2017. “consolidated” gross debt = “Maastricht” debt without ExImBank = 27.359 = 72.1%, NOT 27.4219 as stated today.
With Eximbank = “Maastricht” debt/GDP = 74.0% (by MNB)
Therefore 2017 GDP = 37.9459 (by MNB)
But
2017. “Maastricht” debt = 28.09548 = 73.30% (by AKK)
Therefore 2017 GDP = 38.3294 (by AKK)
But
2017 GDP = 38.3551 (by KSH)
Orban is cooking the macro numbers but it’s in everybody’s interest to accept them as legit.
There is probably some methodological answer to the discrepancies.
The Fidesz Government publishes several sets of GDP/debt, budget deficit etc. numbers (based on various methodologies) and regularly re-calculates them too.
It’s basically impossible to follow the numbers or see what is the reality.
But that’s exactly how Orban likes it.
@Marty, 6:57 am
The Orbán government figures are so much in error that they are almost arbitrary,
“BUT, it is everybody’s interest to accept them as legit,” sez Marty.
FFS Marty, how do you come to that conclusion if you are not @Zoltan’s Pox’s spokesman?
second that one!! for sure!!
Depends on how Marty terms “everybody “. Maybe those within Hungary.
Solution of the puzzle.
MNB had to raise the GDP growth IMPLICITLY to 10.88%, to achieve
the desired lower debt/GDP ratio !
(but who would believe a 10.88% GDP growth?)
2017 MNB report:
debt without ExImBank = 27.359 trillion = 72.1% of GDP
So 2017 GDP = 37.94591 (implicit)
2018 MNB report:
debt without ExImBank = 29.0325 = 69.0% of GDP
So 2018 GDP = 42.07609 (implicit)
[2018 GDP]/[2017 GDP] = 42.07609/37.94591 = 1.108844
Solution of the puzzle? Engage Matolcsy and some other people who can’t calculate – but tell the story wanted – at MNB. You can’t beat them with calculations or knowledge, after they just invented their own numbers.
At this time when it comes to numbers running about in the country it may be imperative to keep in mind this observation ..
‘Facts are stubborn things …but statistics are more pliable’.
Magyarorszag: subject not only to phony stories but phony numbers.
Guys,
Remember that the GGD/GDP ratio is officially announced (and used) as of Dec 30 every year, because the gov and the MNBank employ some financial and accounting tricks eg. swapping gov.bonds/fin.instrumenrs, to achieve the desired result. Don’t ask what was the ratio on Dec 15 or Jan 10.
Sorry can’t give you links, but it was very technical.
OT
“Keresztény gyökerű és fehér bőrű munkaerő-pótlást keresünk.”
“We are looking for Christian-rooted and white-skinned laborforce replacement(s).”
— said by László Parragh, President of the Hungarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (source: Azonnali.hu, 2019.Feb.12)
quote taken from http://www.atv.hu/belfold/20190218-demokracia-ott-van-ahol-a-kozvelemeny-ellenorzi-a-politikusokat
Take this man to court for discrimination (based on race, colour and religion) and demand immediate resignation!!
Note even in “OV&Co’s own” “Fundamental Law” is (still) clearly stated in Article XV.par.(2):
“Hungary shall guarantee the fundamental rights to everyone without discrimination and in particular without discrimination on grounds of race, colour, sex, disability, language, religion, political or other opinion, national or social origin, property, birth or any other status.”
Of course what he said was disgraceful, but it’s actually what many Fidesz supporters / politicians actually believe (just some are “clever” enough not to say it out loud).
Do you think “fehér bőrű munkaerő” includes Gypsy/ Roma people?
it’s not disgraceful, it’s fully unacceptable!!
and I don’t care what a part of what he said is supposed to “include”, it’s discrimination
well it could be both disgraceful and fully unacceptable 🙂 but from what I understand you’re talking about the legal situation in which case you’re right, fully unacceptable is a better way to describe it…
Orban’s “family package” is a joke, it keeps changing by the day …
https://www.portfolio.hu/finanszirozas/hitel/kabare-ferfiak-es-elvaltak-is-felvehetik-a-hazas-noknek-kitalalt-10-millios-ingyenhitelt.3.314477.html
It’s a joke, sure, but it’s OK, the subtext message is what is really important: “Fidesz cares about the families, cares about the future of the nation, Fidesz gives”.
This is message that is hard to counter from opposition. Although the opposition’s move today to visit Suzuki was a smart one.
Yes, it’s not easy to leave Islam – just as it wasn’t easy (doesn’t that still hold?) to leave Christianity or just switch domination – how many heretics were killed over the centuries?
So I agree with bimbi – and Dawkins who said::
Religion is the source of all evil!
PS and OT:
My wife just got really angry when reading about the pope and the cardinal accused of abusing children …
So I had to tell her that there was a statistic that at least 7% of catholic priests are pedophiles/have pedophile ideas …
Considering how health and education is managed the number of children in families surely must impinge later on the the entire family’s future quality of life. How do you educate say 3+ children and keep them healthy in a society such as Magyarorszag?
Not too sure on that margin of success for families. The regime’s solutions are cosmetic and ignore the endemic political, social and economic problems existing in the country. Currying favor is the ‘cheap’ way out on solving a problem regardless of how much money gets thrown in.
The accumulated assets & endowments of the Academy of Sciences (1820-2018) are valued at about 0.5 trillion HUFs (about €1.6 billion or $1.8 billion)
The Orban regime wants to grab everything. They want to take away not only the independence of the researchers, but also all of the assets of the Academy.
The plan is to put the real estate, all of the assets into trusts , governed by boards consisting of 3/4 regime appointees.
The notion of trusts (“vagyonkezelő alapítvány”) will be codified in a new bill.
https://index.hu/techtud/2019/02/18/alapitvanyi_tulajdonba_akarja_venni_a_kormany_az_akademia_vagyonat/
https://444.hu/2019/02/18/ugy-tunik-a-kormany-egyszeruen-allamositani-akarja-az-mta-500-milliardos-vagyonat
http://www.parlament.hu/irom41/04513/04513.pdf
The board can appoint its own overseers. [6. § (2)]
The “vagyonkezelő alapítvány” can “invest” in newly created “enterprises” :
“Annak természetesen nincsen akadálya, hogy a vagyonkezelő alapítvány – a vagyongazdálkodásának az alapító okiratban megszabott keretei között – a szükségessé váló más gazdasági tevékenység folytatására gazdasági társaságot hozzon létre” [Explanation to 2. §]
If the “vagyonkezelő alapítvány” ceases to exist, its assets already handed over to others are lost forever [11. §].
Flowchart:
Autonomous organization with assets —-> Orban regime
—-> “vagyonkezelő alapítvány” with regime appointees in control
—–> enterprises
——> privatized assets in the hands of friends & family.
This discussion on Muslims against Jews/Christians etc is funny in a way – ugly things like killings that happened a thousand years ago are quoted.
Then I might mention the cruisade or the Hungarian invasion to Pannonia or the Bartholomew night – or even the half a million Jews sent by Hungarians to their death in WW2, so many that Auschwitz couldn’t “process” them …
As I’Ve written before, Dawkins probably is right:
Religion is the root of all evil!
PS:
What about the Chinese treatment of their Muslims – which is more evil?
And it’s interesting that the USA has no problem with Saudi Arabia which surely is one of the ugliest Muslim countries – Blood for Oil!
Funny you should mention the Chinese, because isn’t the Chinese Communist party that is the ruling authority there a major secular/atheistic force. If you see their action as evil then that means being secular/non-religious/atheistic doesn’t stop evil, it is itself evil. So much for Dawkins. But there is a flip side to this secularism. It is the strange, some would say suicidal and self-destructive, way that many of the so-called modern, Western secular European nations keep wanting to welcome in migrants and refugees of mostly Islamic background into their countries for…no one can really explain to what end. Take Sweden. Said to be very non-religious and secular nowadays. They also insist on welcoming a whole heap of those Islamic refugees and migrants, with the results of violent crime, a high rate of Islamic State recruits, the 2010 Stockholm bombing and the 2017 truck terror attack and so on. https://www.politico.eu/article/sweden-bombings-grenade-attacks-violent-reality-undoing-peaceful-self-image-law-and-order/ https://www.thelocal.se/20151115/swedish-city-is-largest-recruiting-ground-for-islamic-extremism https://news.vice.com/en_us/article/mbw8gb/smorgasbord-of-hate-the-islamic-state-finds-fresh-recruits-in-swedens-angry-young-men https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Stockholm_truck_attack https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Stockholm_bombings Same thing with Britain. Again said to be very secular and again it keeps on welcoming Muslims with the results of an estimated 35000 Muslim militants on the loose in Britain and various terror attacks. In the 2017 Parsons Green train bombing attack, the perpetrator, an Iraqi… Read more »
You take some incidents selected for their atrocity …
But I might as well take other incidents showing that Christians are evil – should we enter into a competition which religion is more evil?
Just think of all those thousands of children raped by Catholic priests …
Didn’t you yourself describe Saudi Arabia, actually the very homeland and standard-bearer of Islam itself, as a very ugly country.
OV’s chief prosecutor Polt seems to be invited/ordered to appear in front of the EP’s Budgetary Control Commission [CONT].
According HVG the invitation/order is for the CONT meeting on March 04.
During tomorrow’s CONT meeting it should become clear if the HVG news is correct.
The CONT commission is chaired by German EPP-MP Grassle, who is pretty critical about OV&Co [for budgetary reasons]. The only Hungarian MEP in the commission is Deutsch [OV&Co], among the substitutes are Javor [PM], Niedermuller [DK].
If this news is true, it could very well be an EU/EP first (again for OV&Co, applause) in receiving an invition/order for a national chief prosecutor to appear in front of MEPs…
source: https://hvg.hu/gazdasag/20190219_Eliosugy_Polt_Peter_raporton_az_Europai_Parlamentben
WordPress has gone crazy again!
Does anyone here have the same problem that new comments (on a yellow background) often appear twice?
And right now some appear even four times!
Of course this is not a big problem, just strange – especially when you get the message from wordpress “8 new comments” and in reality there are just two …
Hungarian Idyll – Magyar Idill
That’s one creepy picture, Ferenc! Ugh!