Viktor Orbán’s version of the nomination of Ursula von der Leyen

It looks as if the Hungarian government’s version of Ursula von der Leyen’s nomination is still being written in Budapest. On Sunday, Antal Rogán, head of the cabinet office of the prime minister, gave an interview on Kossuth Rádió in which he claimed that “there cannot be a leader of the European Commission who doesn’t have the support of the Central European counties.” This is a new development, he boasted. In the last 10-15 years the West European member states could force their will on the new member states, but this time “Central Europe spoke.” The result was the nomination of Ursula von der Leyen to be president of the European Commission. To demonstrate Viktor Orbán’s critical role in this process, Rogán shared an alleged detail about the negotiations. “Frau Ursula von der Leyen could be chosen only after Viktor Orbán had spoken with the candidate and asked her whether as commission president she would show due respect toward Hungary and the other Central European countries.” According to Rogán, Orbán received that promise from von der Leyen.

Viktor Orbán revealed more alleged details this morning in his regular fortnightly interview. He said that the Visegrád 4 countries arrived at the European Council meeting two weeks ago with two lists. One list was short; they rejected both Spitzenkandidaten, Manfred Weber and Frans Timmermans. Apparently, the other list of recommended candidates was longer because von der Leyen was third on the list. If one can believe multiple media sources, the first name on the Visegrád 4 list of recommended politicians was Kristalina Georgieva, the former EU Budget Commissioner from Bulgaria who resigned in 2017 to become chief executive of the World Bank. According to unnamed sources, EPP rejected Georgieva because she was “the candidate of Orbán.” But there were other problems with her as a candidate. Euractiv revealed in January 2017 that Christopher Steele, the former member of Britain’s MI6 who is the author of the famous dossier of alleged links between Donald Trump and Russia, had also investigated Georgieva.

My guess for the second name on that list is the Slovak Maroš Šefčovič, whose name had been bandied about earlier. In late May word got out from Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš’s office that Visegrád 4’s choice for the job was the Slovak socialist, who earlier had tried to be the socialist Spitzenkandidat but lost out to Frans Timmermans. As for von der Leyen’s presence on that list, I have my serious doubts. By all accounts, her nomination was the brainchild of Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron. The Visegrád 4’s list most likely consisted of only two names, and, as we know, V4 didn’t manage to convince the rest of the members to seriously consider either of them for any of the top jobs.

But let’s get back to the story of the three-day, hard negotiations that produced the known results. How did Viktor Orbán describe them? After the Visegrád 4 prime ministers succeeded in getting both Weber and Timmermans dumped, “we took out our positive list, and the West Europeans and the Central Europeans made a deal.” He also claims that there were times when “we could count on the Croats and the Romanians.” We don’t know much about the role that Romanian president Klaus Iohannis played, but I doubt he was a strong supporter. However, Andrej Plenković, prime minister of Croatia, may have helped the Visegrád 4 for the sake of his own personal ambition for a high-level job, maybe even the presidency of the commission.

At this point the interviewer returned to the nomination of von der Leyen and Orbán’s role in it. “How did you manage to persuade President Macron to abandon his Osaka agreement and not support Timmermans?” she asked. Orbán refused to answer the question, saying  “this should remain my secret.” I suspect that Orbán’s reason for “secrecy” is that the conversation between Macron and Orbán about replacing Timmermans with the V4’s alleged third choice, von der Leyen, never took place.

Orbán was equally reticent when it came to Antal Rogán’s claim about Orbán’s telephone conversation with von der Leyen, without which von der Leyen allegedly couldn’t have been a candidate for the job of commission president. He simply refused to answer the question and instead kept repeating that her candidacy “gives us a chance.”

Ursula von der Leyen on the move / Photo: European Parliament

That is, if Ursula von der Leyen receives the necessary 374 votes, which at the moment is questionable. As far as Viktor Orbán is concerned, her election should be predetermined because all the prime ministers endorsed her candidacy. The task is simple. Members of the European Parliament are representatives of parties that function in the countries whose prime ministers agreed to support the German minister of defense. It is now the prime ministers’ duty to enforce the desirable outcome in the European Parliament. Orbán’s view of this matter reflects his firm conviction about the primacy of the European Council. Even decisions made in the European Parliament in some way depend on the political actions of the leaders of the member states.

But here’s the rub. As Politico pointed out today, “not all leaders on the European Council seemed incline to whip MEPs on von der Leyen’s behalf.” Even if all 186 EPP members voted for her and the 86 socialists who come from countries with socialist prime ministers could be persuaded to support her, she would still fall  short of the magic number. The vote will take place on Tuesday unless von der Leyen asks for an extension. If the vote takes place and she fails to receive the necessary number of votes, the European Council has 30 days to propose a new nominee. In that case, Orbán and his Visegrád 4 friends can start preparing another list.

July 12, 2019