So, it is over. After a few hectic days, Ursula von der Leyen narrowly won election to be the next president of the European Commission. She needed a minimum of 374 votes and received 383. Five years ago, Jean-Claude Juncker received 422 votes from a total of 729 cast. By any standard, von der Leyen’s support is weak, most likely weaker than she deserves.
Yesterday her election was very much in question, but this morning she delivered a speech that was enthusiastically received. She even got a standing ovation. For a few hours, it looked as if most if not all members of the three large political groupings would cast their votes for her. That clearly hasn’t happened. EPP, S&D, and Renew Europe altogether have 444 members, and therefore at least 61 members in these three delegations either didn’t vote or voted against her. Since the voting was secret, we will never know for certain the exact breakdown of the numbers, with the exception of those who openly admitted that they voted against her. Among the Hungarian MEPs only Márton Gyöngyösi (Jobbik) and István Ujhelyi (MSZP) owned up to their “no” votes. All the others apparently voted for her, or so they claim.
During the four-hour debate that followed von der Leyen’s 25-minute speech, Tamás Deutsch was among the many MEPs who addressed questions or remarks to the candidate. He briefly summarized the Hungarian government’s list of demands that Hungarian Spectrum readers are familiar with. First, he hopes that the future president of the commission recognizes and supports those countries that have been defending the borders of the European Union. Second, Fidesz would like a return to the original concept of a European Union of nation states. It hopes that the EU “will be the defender of national identity and constitutional sovereignty of the member states.” Finally, the financial aid the Central European countries receive is not charity, and therefore Hungary hopes that the financial package will remain the same in the next seven years as it has been for the past seven. Those countries shouldn’t be punished; on the contrary, they should receive a larger financial package in order to eliminate poverty in the region. In addition to Deutsch, two other Hungarian MEPs participated in the debate. Márton Gyöngyösi told von der Leyen that he will vote against her, and Katalin Cseh (Momentum) demanded guarantees to defend the rule of law in Hungary.
How did the government media react to von der Leyen’s election? The first article I read was in Origo. Its headline was “Ursula von der Leyen: The left didn’t support her, but the right voted for her.” Naturally, the statement is misleading. First of all, both the extreme left and the extreme right undoubtedly voted against the candidate. We know that Salvini’s group voted against her, and the Polish PiS members of ERC most likely followed suit. As far as EPP, S&D, and Renew Europe are concerned, we have no clue about the breakdown of numbers in each group. In Origo’s estimate, von der Leyen’s election is a huge victory for Fidesz because “Soros’s pseudo-civic organizations suffered a great defeat.” The article doesn’t explain in what way they were defeated. In addition, “the result of the election meant a serious setback for the careers of Manfred Weber and Soros’s man Timmermans.” It is true that Weber’s hopes were dashed, but Timmermans will be one of the two vice-presidents who will carry on his crusade for the rule of law in Poland, Romania, and Hungary.
Origo, like all the other Fidesz media outlets, stressed the slim 9-vote margin by which von der Leyen won election and intimated that she owes her job to those 13 Fidesz MEPs who voted for her. Fidesz hopes to hammer home in EPP circles that its presence in EPP saved the day for the EPP candidate. Since Fidesz’s status in EPP is in limbo, its politicians feel the need to muster arguments demonstrating their indispensability, even if the veracity of their claims cannot be ascertained.
While Origo painted a favorable portrait of the president-elect, emphasizing those parts of her program that sound like support for Viktor Orbán’s ideas on migration and on the future of Europe, Pesti Srácok was a great deal less impressed. She is described as “the liberal of EPP who must thank the V4 for its nomination.” The article reminds the readers of Pesti Srácok that she criticized Viktor Orbán when the Hungarian police used tear gas against “the aggressive migrants who attacked the border at Röszke.” The article predicts that “the relation between the consistently conservative Hungarian government and von der Leyen is not going to be the best.” However, she knows that without the V4 she wouldn’t be the president-elect, and therefore she will think twice before going after the Central European countries. As a result, it is possible that relations between Budapest and Brussels will be less tumultuous than under Jean-Claude Juncker. But Pesti Srácok still sees problems ahead. For example, von der Leyen felt compelled to talk about “European solidarity.” And she wants to formalize, at last, the European Union’s adherence to the Istanbul Convention, which the Hungarian parliament refuses to ratify. Her talk about the “duty of saving lives on the sea” and “humane defense of the borders” does not bode well for friendly relations in the future.
Tamás Deutsch was among the first to congratulate Ursula von der Leyen / Source: MTI / Szilárd Koszticsák
Finally, let share with you my serious doubts that the 13 Fidesz members actually voted for von der Leyen. Euronews reported tonight that “Tamás Deutsch was among the very first ones who congratulated von der Leyen.” There is no question that the four DK and the two Momentum MEPs voted for the candidate. We also know for certain that Gyöngyösi and Ujhelyi voted against her. As for the Fidesz MEPs, Euronews adds that “if they observed the rules of parliamentary discipline the 13 Fidesz MEPs also voted for her.” But did they? What makes me believe that Fidesz didn’t vote with the rest of the EPP members is that Tamás Deutsch was spotted remaining seated when all the other EPP members, along with the whole European Parliament, stood and applauded von der Leyen after her speech.
Tamás Deutsch has the reputation in Hungary of not being the sharpest knife in the drawer. If Fidesz planned to vote against the candidate and lie about it, he shouldn’t have sat in contempt in plain view of the whole parliament. But since he did, and since Fidesz is more closely allied with those parties on the right that voted against her than with the liberal wing of EPP that supported her, my hunch is that von der Leyen got 13 fewer votes from EPP than she might have expected. Moreover, the Hungarian media said nothing about the two Hungarians from Romania who sit in the EPP delegation. If Fidesz didn’t vote for von der Leyen, I am certain that the two Transylvanian Hungarians voted against her as well. As we know, RMDSZ is very much in the pocket of the Hungarian government, and they normally follow the political directives of Fidesz in Budapest.
I understand that von der Leyen’s election is not to their liking (despite early false claims to have suggested her for the job), but what bothers me to no end is their duplicity and dishonesty. Of course, if the Fidesz MEPs made it known that they voted against her, they could never be taken back into the fold of EPP. But if they claim to have been the pivotal votes in her election, if, despite their serious reservations as a right-wing party about her candidacy, they claim to have followed parliamentary discipline, they can press the case that they should be rewarded. And EPP will never know whether it’s been conned.
The Hungarian media you refer to, are also strongly influenced by translation issues during the course of the candidate’s trilingual session with the EE
…sorry the EUP. According to reporters from the Danish tv, the candidate struck a last minute deal with 8 members of the Polish Pis party for support from that camp. There is currently some speculation by media here as to the details of that deal.
I agree on the probable arithmetics of von der Leyen’s election. It was narrow, but then the first Adenauer government in West-Germany would have failed if it hadn’t been for Adenauer’s own vote!
It will be decisive for the new EU president to push her project of a majority vote in more and more fields through in order not to see every progressive project vetoed. In contrast to Juncker, von der Leyen can be expected to follow through on treaty and value violations much more quickly.
I wonder if the by-laws should not be amended in a way that temporarily suspends voting rights of member states against whom procedures (art. 7, OLAF, etc.) are pending. That should exclude some V4 countries to take revenge on someone like Timmermanns.
I quite like the new personnel package!
Hear, hear!
and not before damn time!
Politics – the give and take bargaining process – is not my cup-a-tea, but Eva’s logic seems to make sense: It certainly takes Fidesz’ wily thinking into account, which is absolutely necessary when analyzing their behavior.
“We saved the election” is both: stupid and no reason to keep FIDESZ within EPP. Stupid, because nobody will ever know and no reason, because the next election of a president of the commission will be by the next parliament as long as nothing very exceptional happens. The EP used to vote according to the subject and not according to party lines. So a social project might get the votes of all S&D, but not all EPP members, while an engaged enviroment question will bring votes from the Greens, but might not get votes from those Renew MEPs close to industry (both just examples of course). This is how the EP works, not a copy of “we have to vote as Viktor orders”, as it is at home.
Yes, it will be interesting to see how Fidesz and the other populists react when concrete problems and measures to solve them are discussed in the EP. I’m sure we will have interesting times! Imho Ursula vdL is of course not “left” – but in the CDU/CSU she might be considered to be on the left side of the party, compared to Clerical Fascists like Weber etc. At least even several years ago she already voted for same sex marriage e g – which Angela Merkel voted against! The SPIEGEL has an interesting comment: Abgesehen davon darf man von der Leyen eines abnehmen: Sie ist eine leidenschaftliche Europäerin. Die osteuropäischen Möchtegern-Autokraten vom Schlage eines Viktor Orbán, die nun damit prahlen, Weber und Timmermans verhindert zu haben, werden ihr Verhalten womöglich noch bereuen. Denn von der Leyen wird es sich politisch kaum leisten können, Rechtsstaatsverstöße in Ungarn oder Polen weniger hart zu ahnden als die aktuelle Kommission. Alles andere würde ihr sofort den Verdacht einbringen, Europas Demokratie ihren Karriere-Ambitionen geopfert zu haben. Loosely translated: She is a passionate European. The autocrats like Orbán who claim to have boycotted Weber and Timmermans successfully might regret what they did. Ursula vdL can’t afford… Read more »
Re: UVDL
The globalist and democrat will start off immediately to have Fidesz always seeing red when it looks to the EU in context of its ‘demands’. Considering the way Magyarorszag runs its own ship the concept of ‘power-sharing’ takes it to another level as the country is ‘comfortable’ now in its virtual one – body unaccountability. They live now in a world where political decisions preferably are made behind closed doors to pursue policies of intrigue. When the country ‘speaks’ it’s limited to the ideas of a few political pundits now. They control ‘communications’.
Now if the democratic spirit in some parts of Europe as one writer put it could be considered akin to a drunk staggering to find a lampost Uvdl could be on the way to cut back the sipping of V4 palinka. It just might provide a clearer head in coming to grips with countries who seem to find democracy now untenable in a club they joined that’s supposed to act on it. It’s a way of life that seems to no longer appeal to some supply-side, trickle downers who consider taking more than giving from a relationship. ‘Openess’ with diversity is anathema to them.
Of course Orban fooled these clueless Western politicians and voted against von der Leyen, he is a great con man.
Orban hates von der Leyen’s policies (by invoking rule of law in her recent speeches she certainly offended Orban who tolerates no criticism whatsoever) and declarations, and he anyway uses every opportunity to undermine the EU and the main parties (such as the EPP).
The question is much more why would he vote for von der Leyen in the first place – especially when the votes are secret?
Orban’s interest is to create chaos within the EU and within Western democracies which allow him and Putin, Erdogan etc. to point to EU and tell their people: Why, are you crazy? Why do you want democracy, to have this chaos of liberalism? At least I create order and stability not like these weak Western wusses.
Only a terminally enfeebled EU politician can seriously believe whatever Orban or Deutsch claims.
Orban fools them again and again and again, just like he did yesterday.
No, I believe that O1G and the other Eastern European (please, don’t call them Central European I prefer Northern Balkan …) populist autocrats fooled themselves!
Ursula knows that she needs the support of the “left” for any decisions/laws. The few votes of the populists will have no effect and anyway they can’t agree probably. They only want more money for themselves – but not for the others!
PS:
Their position on other stuff like equality for females (Istanbul convention) or same sex marriage is equally abhorrent to vdL as to us!
Marty, Orbán voted definitely FOR Von Der Leyen – in the council (27 voted for, only Merkel abstained). That Orbán’s voting machines in the EP voted against her is very likely. Another nomination round in the council would have been great for Orbán, as it distracts from his crimes and was another chance to show his “importance”. Perhaps even boss Putin would be happy with trouble in the EU. If you ask me: Orbán played another game and lost. Von Der Leyen is “his” president, because “he alone” suggested her to the council. Now Orbán has to live with her – and his lies.
Marty, I don’t really often debate atheists on what arguments to use, unless they could be fruit of the poisonous tree. Where they posit Pascal’s wager as useless (and be honest here, a lot of Orbán’s policies are such a wager), the counter must be pointing out the Euthyphro dilemma as both parties being wrong, since it’s also about condoning and defending slavery, and the other to not use anything by Newton. I assume that you’re well-read, so you have read in your extracurricular time that Sir Isaac Newton, the same guy after whom a building and a position is named, that guy thought him researching physics is a hobby. He felt his real calling to be an alchemist, and talking to angels. So, one must take their appeal to authority fallacy to a place without sunlight for the benefit of all, because the “outsmarting” by a populist only works on people loathing critical thinking. What Newton has discovered stood the test of time independent of the man, so imagine for a second he was alive now, both viciously attacking the Einsteinian and Hawkingian physics, and people’s lack of faith. The religious right would love his debate with Michio Kaku,… Read more »
@PK:
???
I don’t understand what you wrote about Newton – anyway his theories are no longer “right”, GPS wouldn’t function on his laws e g, you need the Einstein refinements.
For his time he was great but nowadays …
Of course Einstein, Planck (!), Hawking etc built on his ideas but those Newtonian laws were only “approximations”, just as the laws of quantum physics are.
And Newton wasn’t the only scientist who got crazy as he got older …
„Finally, the financial aid the Central European countries receive is not charity, and therefore Hungary hopes that the financial package will remain the same in the next seven years as it has been for the past seven. Those countries shouldn’t be punished; on the contrary, they should receive a larger financial package in order to eliminate poverty in the region.“
Oh yes poor Mészáros needs more money and Orbán and his oligarchs. The thieves are upset because they can not steal enough, my money.
So Dr. von der Leyen scraped home with a majority of 9… Not what one would call an auspicious start. A rousing speech urging action on the environment is fine – the issue is surely largely “Mom and Apple Pie” and students will surely benefit from an expanded Erasmus programme but there is a huge gap that has to be filled in delineating, shaping action on and pushing through the needed revisions in EU policy. Her very election process highlights one, but others include EU-wide tax policy, the EU Prosecutors office, Eastern European corruoption, massive income disparities and even – dare one say it – a paring back of the Brussels bureaucrats’ high life (including EU parliamentarians). Make your own list!
It is now too late for “Oh, no, has she really been approved?”, she has to put it on the line for all of Europe and save us from another Juncker stagnation period.
The next six months will be telling.
Very interesting too – the NYT’s decription:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/16/world/europe/ursula-von-der-leyen-eu-president.html?action=click&module=MoreInSection&pgtype=Article®ion=Footer&contentCollection=Europe
@wolfi 7777
From the NYT article:
“Ms. von der Leyen tried to acknowledge that the European Union is fragmented across political and geographic lines, and she pledged that she would strive to address those differences. “We have to do it the European way,” she said.” [Boiler plate.101]
Yup! Sounds pretty good until you reflect that the “European Way” for the last 1200 or more years has been to go to war.
So who gets to declare war on whom now?
Good point considering the adversarial relationships with various EU ‘blocs’. In hindsight the Soviets gave some wonderful state gifts to Europe after the implosion of their Empire. The return on dilapidated investment as it was given back to Europe has proved here in the early 21st to be quite a boon for ‘democrats’ who are anti-liberals. They’ve sure ‘come a long way baby’. And their ‘achievements’ ironically have only been passed on through the elements of democracy. Something they now disdain. Whatever is left of it now continues on to be a means to an end utterly at odds with a liberal ‘imagination’.
And they’re the ones who seem to come to parley in Parliament usually donned with a certain kind of ‘vest’ that they equip themselves with and use to threaten. Uvdl et al must be mindful they don’t blow themselves up as they go and deal with them from EU battlements. All along the watchtowers the EU needs to be aware of a certain battle which is what Orban would love.. the battle of Brussels to be won..to be the West’s dreadful Mohacs. Revenge then would be sweet for the anti-liberals.
Wolfi
Tnx.
IMO the min.wage, unemployment insurance, etc are worthy causes, but the EU’s functional and confidence crisis is the main problem to be resolved before it metastasizes into other areas/confrontations.
Yes,
” the bloc is rived with internal divisions stoked by rising nationalism and increasingly entangled in power struggles with Russia, China, the United States, Iran and other nations…” and most of these viruses were brought in/rekindled by the EE new members.
A reform in the EU is a must, just as is getting tougher with the thieves, moles and fascists. More democracy has never been the way to go in a crisis; Majority voting, two tier union or no union are the option beyond the short term.
If the Russians or the Chinese want to assume (again) the economic burden of political influence/domination of disgruntled or condemned EE -exiters, let them do it in earnest, as they are gaining influence already while the EU is footing the bill, eg. the Orbàn regime being a prime example.
One basic problem which I admit that I didn’t expect (like many others).
Many people in the East i e the former Socialist block were extremely disappointed by capitalism and democracy!
As I’ve said often they are still 50 years (or more …) behind and we don’t know whether they’ll ever catch up – just think of the Trumpublican deplorables and the Brexsh*tters (sorry, that just had to be).
To think that in Potsdam e g the AfD might become the strongest party makes me want to throw up!
And the crazy side of this for me:
Most of the people I know are real democracy fans, whether my friends in London or the US people with which I correspond or my wife’s family.
So I have no idea what moves the enemies of democracy – is it just stupidity or what?
Wolfi, Observer is correct to point to Marty and psychology. When democracy replaced communism the economy also went down. Pretty normal if you think about the artificial circumstances in a closed market. Everybody had work and most didn’t need to think about buying food or cloth or to heat in wintertime. That changed for a significant part of the population. Even worse: today financial problems are daily life for most of ordinary people, although they have a job. And MTV tells us how much better and safer our lives are compared to the situation in the western countries. So many think that democracy makes poor and centre and left politics will make it even worse than it is today. We were so great and deserve better and Orbán is fighting for us (for eastern half of Germany just replace MTV by comparable outlet and Orbán by Gauland, the rest remains pretty much the same).
I don’t think the economy went down – the expectations just were too high!
As I’ve said before the “Socialist” economy was really bad – and without those billions from the West it would have been worse!
I have heard many stories regarding this but the problem is that too many people didn’t realise this.
Not too much OT:
What do those who vote for the AfD expect?
Are they really all fascists or just ignorant/stupid/you name it?
wolfi
A prosperous and stable society doesn’t need/tolerate extremists, but a crisis also means new opportunities (in Chinese) and the marginals/populists come out offering all sorts of “new opportunities”. While resolving the crisis/problems is central, tackling/containing the marginals/populists is also important because they can deepen the crisis. Easier said than done though.
Marty often comments on the psychology of this, a lot of truth there.
Observer, sometimes I feel lucky growing up after WW2.
OK, when I was a child the Clerical Fascists ruled (with a lot of old nazis among them – some of our teachers e g) but when I became a student in the early 60s I saw real progress, culminating in the election of Willy Brandt in 1969 when I finished my studies and the world looked totally different. Though we still have the CDU/CSU the number of clerical fascists there has been shrinking and their importance even more.
Democracy was on the move even though we had backlashes from the USA …
And the end of the Soviet Bloc was another positive sign.
But now I see that too many people are not really interested in democracy but want a LEADER again – and I shudder.
But I still hope we’ll make it!
And in any case the last 50 years were formidable! 🙂
It will be exciting …
“Von der Leyen intends to lay the foundation for every worker in the EU to receive a fair minimum wage within the first 100 days of her term of office. She also announces a proposal for European unemployment insurance and support for an EU guarantee against child poverty. A European plan for combating cancer should help Member States to improve the fight against and treat cancer.”
What would be a fair minimum wage in Hungary, if almost everything is so expensive + 8% as in Germany? 1000 Euro?
Don, plans are not about minimum wages related to the costs, but related to the average wages.
And life is not more expensive here than in Germany, significant lower are the average costs for housing for example. Yes, especially imported every days products are expensive, but go into a bakery in Germany and buy a bread – and do it here!
Oh yes, bread I forgot bread bread bread logical. I thought about sausage. … I know our neighbor has to live with 300 euros and she still saves something. She sits with her sewing machine right at the front door, so you do not have to turn on the light. She eats the yoghurt in two parts … Her neighbor has recently seen a cooking show in which Argentinean steak was prepared. She then went to the butcher and asked for Argentine steak spice. … well that is what very few Hungarians will eat once. Who wants quality pays in Hungary cheap 27%. Also for T shirts socks and so on. OK if a Bread is cheaper then the whole live is cheaper, right.
Fidesz and PiS are both claiming they voted for her (Salvini’s party may have done so as well, given that Italy voted for her), making the difference between victory and defeat. I think they did indeed vote for her. I also think that many of the more liberal EPP members did not. Neither did many of the socialists, ALDE, Greens. Her speech was one of a politician. Something in there to satisfy all, including liberal-globalist fanatics. I personally do not believe she shares those views. In fact I don’t believe she has many strong convictions of her own. It is why she was elected. After the ideological debacle of the Junker-Merkel era, EU needs to heal the rifts, both East-West, and North-South. These are mostly rifts caused by the liberal-globalists who tried to mass-colonize the EU with ME-African colonists. If they fail to heal those rifts, the EU will fail (sooner I mean, because fail it will no matter what they do going forward at this point, just a question of when).