It was in September of 2018 that the engineers of Orbán’s propaganda machine decided that pro-government political scientists should become government-paid bloggers. Some of these blogs, I understand, have died since, but Tamás Lánczi’s “Mozgástér” (Room for Maneuver) is still going strong. The “owners” of the blogs usually invite a number of contributors, and this is also true of “Mozgástér.” Lánczi’s guest blogger today was Gerda Megyery, a political scientist who is a research fellow at Századvég. Her brief contribution is titled “A Great Day for the Hungarians.” Why should Hungarians celebrate? First of all, says Megyery, because the men’s water polo team won the Men’s European Water Polo Championship; second, because Fidesz won in Győr; and third, because “the right-wing coalition led by Salvini won big in Calabria.” This is how the Fidesz propaganda machine distorts the truth.
The expectations of the pro-government media for a Salvini victory in the elections in Emilia-Romagna and Calabria were incredibly high. MTI, under government supervision, published the most optimistic assessments of the two provincial elections. Quoting an Italian paper, the article in Magyar Nemzet predicted that “after the announcement of the results, nothing will be the same as before.” It said that it was “keeping fingers crossed for Matteo Salvini’s victory in both provinces,” admitting that these two provincial elections were considered to be “a nationwide test for Salvini’s further chances in becoming the largest party of Italy.” Hír TV put together a documentary about Salvini’s career with the title “The Protagonist” (Főhős) which was broadcast on Friday and Saturday. And the station’s staff was reporting from both locations on Sunday, the day of the elections.
Viktor Orbán’s hope for a huge Salvini victory was dashed. Népszava’s headline this morning was “They managed to stop Salvini.” With an exceptionally high turnout (67.1%) in Emilia-Romagna, which was twice as large as in 2014, the current president, Stefano Bonaccini (Democratic Party), won (51.4%) against Salvini’s candidate, Lucia Borgonzoni, despite the fact that Salvini’s League won the district at the 2019 EP elections. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte was relieved and expressed his delight at the electoral loss of the politician “who specializes in irresponsible sloganeering.” Bonaccini considered it “a victory over arrogance.” In Calabria, which is one of the most corrupt regions of Italy, participation was low (44.2%), and the victory of Jole Santelli was pretty much a foregone conclusion. Santelli is a politician who belongs to Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, whom Salvini only supported, and therefore the pro-government Hungarian media’s emphasis on the win of Salvini in Calabria is misleading.
Lucia Borgonzoni and Matteo Salvini after the defeat
So, let see how the results in Emilia-Romagna and Calabria were reported in the Hungarian press. Origo announced late last night that “Salvini won big in Calabria” but “in Emilia-Romagna the results are too close to call.” Both Magyar Nemzet and Magyar Hírlap published the same centrally edited article titled “The Salvini-led right did well in the local elections.” Since in Calabria the right-of-center won and the far right in Emilia-Romagna lost, the final result was “a draw,” the article claimed. But when it comes to the details of the Calabrian results, it turns out that this was the first time in history that Salvini’s League entered the race in a municipal election and received only 12% of the votes. At the EP elections in May, the party got 22%. So, it doesn’t matter how you slice it, the League’s support since the spring of 2019 has slipped substantially, even in Calabria. With this less than cheerful result, the latest hope in Fidesz circles is a long government crisis because of the possible collapse of the Five Star Movement, which may bring about the collapse of the present Italian government that Salvini is hoping for.
The large turnout in Emilia-Romagna was facilitated by the “Sardines Movement” or “Sardines against Salvini,” a grassroots political movement that began only in November 2019. They organized a series of peaceful demonstrations to protest the right-wing surge in the country. They called themselves “sardines” because they said they would pack the streets and squares of the country. The politicians of the Democratic Party (PD) warmly greeted the appearance of the movement, and Romano Prodi, the founding father of PD, called it “a formidable group that should not be exploited by any party.” Although the movement began in Emilia-Romagna, it soon spread all over the country. The organizers managed to gather 25,000 demonstrators in Milan, 30,000 in Florence, and 40,000 in Turin. In Rome about 100,000 people demonstrated in mid-December against Salvini’s far-right League. They demanded political transparency, the condemnation of hate speech, laws against verbal violence, and a new immigration policy. As Péter Techet put it, “that the provincial election in Emilia-Romagna didn’t turn into an anti-Conte referendum as Salvini had planned but an anti-Salvini one was thanks to the Sardines.”
Ildikó Lendvai today, in an article about the lessons of the Győr election, spent some time on the Italian elections, pointing out that the left-of-center forces won where voting participation was high. Moreover, the birth of a mass movement outside of parties was a major factor in deciding the outcome in Emilia-Romagna. In Győr, mobilization was poor and lacked strong civilian backing of the opposition forces. Someone without a party label most likely could have achieved a slightly better result in “this Fidesz bastion,” but no independent candidate could be found. No one dared to take up the challenge.
There is a lot to learn from the Italian Sardines Movement in the next two years if Hungarians want to get rid of their own Salvini.
“There is a lot to learn from the Italian Sardines Movement in the next two years if Hungarians want to get rid of their own Salvini.”
If only. Even if Salvini won he could not rearrange the power structures of Italy fundamentally because Italy, even today, is very regional whereas Hungary is extremely unitary and is just a small country (easy to control).
Salvini winning in Emilia-Romagna would have been as the Hungarian opposition winning in Gyor. Emilia-Romagna is a Left-wing bastion, a sort “Red-Liverpool” for UK Labour. Furthermore, the region has fared well economically while the same cannot be said for Italy as a whole.
The good news part : three months ago Salvini won Umbria and now Calabria. It is the Right which is growing in numbers everywhere in Italy and that’s true even for Emilia-Romagna . The 2020-2014 change in Emilia-Romagna :
Left 51.4% (+2.3)
Right 43.6% (+13.8%)
5-Star 3.5% (-9.8%) –
The Italian coalition government remains fragile, with a slim majority, and as you can see in the E-R election results the junior 5-Star party is imploding. In any new national vote Salvini would be the strong favorite.
Oh no, Óvoda! According to your very own definition the left won Calabria! If everything not fascist is left – without Salvini on the ballot for the regional council in Calabria – only left parties could have been voted on in Calabria. Lega Nord with 12% in the communal elections in Calabria were, well you know yourself. Obviously very most voters there didn’t forget the hate the Lega Nord has spread against the South of Italy. And explain, why the 5 star movement is not left? Even for those with a normal view onto the political spectrum they are.
An interesting article on Salvini’s defeat:
https://www.ips-journal.eu/regions/europe/article/show/salvinis-very-personal-defeat-4031/
Totally OT:
And now something to lighten up your mood – a joke re Sardines:
A guy working in a Sardines cannery gets angry, hard work and low pay and one day he discovers a method to put 11 Sardines into a can instead of ten.
After a few days he gets called to the factory bosses and they ask him to show what he does, defiantly he complies, expecting to be immediately fired …
The bosses look at each other, one says:
Do you have a driving license? We’ll get you a car and a pay rise and then you’ll go out to every of our canneries and show the workers your method!
Why?
The olive oil in the cans is of course much more expensive than those little Sardines …
“Nevertheless, the coalition remains unstable because, while the PD was able to hold its ground, the Five Stars suffered a devastating defeat. .. The outcome of the forthcoming Five Stars clashes will also determine whether the governing coalition can become a real counterweight to the Italian right.”
Of course you a**hole forgot to read the preceding lines – will you idiot never learn?
In the end, this mobilisation showed its true power in the rapid increase in voter turnout from 38 per cent in the last regional elections to 68 per cent now – and it was in the left-wing strongholds that the increase was the highest. Moreover, the PD has once again become the strongest party in the region, with almost 35 per cent, after finishing second behind the Lega in the 2019 European elections.
The result strengthens PD leader Nicola Zingaretti, who can now start repositioning the party with, as he sees it, clear left-wing rhetoric. And the result also strengthens the Conte government: Salvini’s new election bid has been shelved for the time being.
The Left’s grasp will eventually loosen on Italy. Compare their domination of the country 6 years ago with today (16 regions to 6) and you will see where things are going :
https://ibb.co/HgVMscy
And how long have the clerical fascists aka Democrazia Cristiana ruled over Italy after WW2? Their regime ended after 1989 with a corruption scandal …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Italian_Republic
Have you ever seen a Don Camillo and Peppone movie, little fascist ovoda?
Ovi
Right, the left has crashed terribly, compared to the 1950s and the PD will almost certainly disappear, after 2060, perhaps.
Fun fact.
Gerhard Sabathil – the German EU diplomat who allegedly spied for China – has Hungarian citizenship.
I would not be surprised if he also reported to Hungarian contacts too.
https://www.politico.eu/article/gerhard-sabathil-brussels-china-spy-probe/
Or even that the Hungarians suggested to the Chinese that he can be approached.
Marty, thanks for this! Never heard about him before – but at least I’m happy that he lost his German security clearance already in 2016.
Should I also be happy that he comes from a German Hungarian family which fled to the Black Forest after WW2 just like our neighbours?
Seems he also was/is a womanizer – like Trump?
Talking about voting, I just saw this article about Orbán which shows, specifically, how he rigs votes, legally but dishonestly, corruptly and most unfairly. And it demonstrates clearly that he does not have majority Hungarian support-:
íhttps://www.ips-journal.eu/topics/european-union/article/show/voter-suppression-comes-to-europe-3999/
Yes, the problem is that 5 Star is about to implode. Its voters who left the mainstream parties in the last few years will much more likely to vote for Salvini (a more efficient anti-establishment politician, they hope) than for whatever the left offers.
Of course, there is nothing Salvini can do in Italy. Italy’s economy (ie. below the Po Valley) is moribund and there is no way Salvini can meaningfully change the underlying structures, incentives, culture, demography, debt situation.
Salvini would however be perfectly positioned to inflict further damage on the EU (with Orban or without) because the EU is the perfect enemy; without defense, without the ability too retaliate, and as we saw it is made up of weak, craven, approval-seeking morons. And since domestically Salvini would be unable to reach anything, he would have no choice (although that’s what be enjoys too) fight against an enemy he could defeat or at the minimum he could sell himself as a righteous fighter, something voters like.
Marty, are you telling us that all the people from O1G and Salvini to the Polish PISSERS are suicidal – or rather want to destroy their countries? Especially for the economically weaker countries like Italy and the Balkan or what they call euphemistically “Eastern Central Europe” it’s hard to imagine what happens if the German manufacturing facilities e g there are no longer needed. Italy is also an interesting case: From personal experience here in Hungary I know that many second tier household products, not as famous as Vaillant, Bosch or Miele but cheaper are produced there – so if the economy falters, what happens to these companies? People will be forced to buy the even cheaper Chinese products – which in some areas like electronics, especially IT, almost have a monopoly already … It should be clear for everybody – if the EU gets destroyed or even weakened enough Europe will be out of power. The USA, the Russians, the Indians and of course the Chinese will determine how the world “evolves” … And probably not in a good way though even the Chinese have realised the dangers of the destruction of the environment and climate change. A bit… Read more »
“Marty, are you telling us that all the people from O1G and Salvini to the Polish PISSERS are suicidal – or rather want to destroy their countries?”
These politicians – by whatever means – want to grab and hold on to power, and hopefully increase/entrench their power further on (by creating a very strong base of followers who may only make up a minority of the population but being very active and loyal can be decisive in the particular election system).
Whatever happens to the country in actuality is irrelevant for these folks, ie. the politicians and voters themselves. The voters will just blame somebody the leaders tell them to blame.
Even in Germany (or Hungary) the Nazis had to be specifically banned because even after the destruction and suffering many people would’ve happily voted for them.
People are not rational as I’ve been saying.
They never were, and the right wing always understood this intimately.
The liberal/left wing is like a disabled or insane person: they simply cannot come to terms with this reality and like a madman still failed try after failed try are treating the voters as rational, programmable automatons. No wonder they are losing ground.
Marty, I agree with the first part of your comment at least – well, Europe has dominated the world for several centuries now and not in a good way … So maybe it’s time for Europeans to step back into the second or third row. It was nice while it lasted … I only hope that the fascists will still be in power then so people will realize what happened. Of course 10 or 15% will always fall for these promises. On the other hand I’m still hoping that more countries will follow DACH and the Scandinavians which don’t (yet …) fit at all in your description. Of course if they should also move to or return to your description then it’s good night Europe – and good riddance! PS: USA have a similar problem, Trump is already on the way to oblivion – I wonder if and when people will wake up. A side effect of that is adherence to stricter religious rule (like no LGBT acceptance, no abortions, religious symbols everywhere, putting many people into jail up to the death penalty and so on). Here Europe again is totally different (at least the civilised part of it) –… Read more »
and the Scandinavians which don’t (yet …)
slowly, slowly inching …
Swedish populist leader Jimmie Åkesson, the leader of the Sweden Democrats (SD), is now tied with Christian Democrat leader Ebba Busch-Thor as the party leader with the most confidence of Swedish voters.
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/01/02/populist-leader-tops-confidence-poll-in-sweden-for-first-time/
To underline Marty’s point re the weak and powerless/toothless EU politicians – his latte sippers:
https://www.ips-journal.eu/regions/global/article/show/the-eus-toothless-trade-policy-4027/
So I have to admit that he’s at least partially right – if even small South Korea can “dance on the EU’s nose” as we say in German? Just another piece in the EU puzzle.
But we should never forget that the EU is essentially still run by clerical fascists aka the EPP.
The Republic of Korea, also known as South Korea, may be relatively small in size ( though still larger than many EU countries ) but it is home to over 50 million people and it is an economic power. I would not call it small.
Compared to most EU member states you are right, but compared to the entire EU South Korea is small. Since trade agreements are treaties with the entire EU and not single member states the size of the members are not relevant.
EU attempting to use trade to influence/dictate S-Korea labor policies is just an arrogant folly. That’s up to S-Korea internal politics, EU would do better to mind its own economic interests.
The time when the Europeans could determine the course of world affairs is passing.
Human rights are so arrogant…?
“Yes, the problem is that 5 Star is about to implode.”
That is only a tactical problem. The real, strategical, problem is that Salvini slowly advances everywhere in the former strongholds of the Italian Left.
Umbria and Calabria regions have just fallen while in the Emilia-Romagna region Salvini won 4 provinces and the Left won 5. This is the best result ever for the Right in 70 years in the E-R region, a region which has been ruled continuously by the Left for 70 years. The Communist party alone ruled once for decades there.
In 2014 the Left beat the Right by 19.3 % in Emilia-Romagna, now Left’s advantage has dropped to 2.7%.
Just wait until ‘Ndrangheta realizes that Salvini’s sponsor, Putin, wants to replace Italian Mafia with the Russian KGB one – like he did everywhere his protegees won – and nobody will vote Lega any more.
Also in the EU – appeasement as always.
“EU attempts a Polish reset
Vera Jourova wants to start afresh with Poland after relations with Warsaw hit a nadir under her predecessor Frans Timmermans”
Obama’s reset with Putin also worked splendidly.
Why do these people believe this time will be different? Why would the Polish give in on anything? Orban resisted and always won. There is no incentive whatsoever for the Poles to compromise.
But the EU can only appease.
Orban will also be more emboldened of course.
2014 election results by municipality:
Left: 31,
5-star+other: 6,
Right: 11 seats.
Votes:
Left- Right: 0.597 – 0.357 million
2020 election results by municipality:
Left: 28,
5-star: 2,
Right: 18 seats.
Votes:
Left- Right: 1.040 – 0.982 million
Yeah, that I was talking about. Quite a “blow” for Salvini.
@Invidious, 6:26 am
“Quite a “blow” for Salvini.” Yes indeed it was.
Salvini’s aim in this election was not to garner a few extra % from the left but to achieve a crushing victory. He didn’t.
It is this indeed that was the “blow” for Salvini. so you are quite correct.
You are swallowing to much propaganda and spinning and believe it is analysis. Salvini has failed to deliver the coup de grace but this doesn’t mean that the bull is in good shape and he is going to last much longer. It is a reprieve.
“Although the result is something of a reprieve for Italy’s fragile coalition government, made up of the PD party and M5S, Salvini’s Lega party is leading national voter polls and has performed well in several other key regional elections, including an election in the southern region of Calabria on Sunday in which Lega, along with other center-right parties, garnered a majority of the vote. The vote has exposed the weak dynamics underpinning the government in Rome. The thin margin of the center-left win in this traditionally leftist stronghold shows once again that Conte’s PD-Five Star Movement (M5S) coalition government rests on rather shaky foundations” – https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/27/salvini-defeated-in-emilia-romagna-but-italys-government-is-weak.html
Salvini told the entire world that he will win and that he didn’t win made him win? As the fascists would get the majority in the EP and the minority did win? You tell everybody that the extremists did fantastic, even if they looooose.
Mr. Salvini and no doubt Fidesz too, tried to put a good face on the Emilia-Romagna election result but 51% for the left candidate (PD) and 43 % for La Lega speaks for itself. Salvini has stoked himself up for a crushing win and got a rather weak failure instead. It is true, however, that the Lega is still the strongest single party in Italy at this time and the national government looks somewhat precarious, but it does not appear to be in imminent danger.
Italy has its peculiarities and instabilities but it also has a large reserve of “civiltá”, of sound common-sense civility as witnessed by the very large crowds in opposition to the Lega and this must be a source of optimism for those of us who dislike autocracy/dictatorship in any form.
I doubt that anything like the “Sardine” movement could or would appear in Hungary. There simply does not seem to be the seed for it and indeed Hungary, as we know, is easy to control (law, media, legislation, elections, even history) but this does not apply to Italy which is altogether more vibrant and more ready to oppose and change.
Eva has a talent for ignoring reality, in favor of highlighting to death some minute details. Yes, the Italian globalists held on at some local election. But most Italian polls show that when there will be another national election, a patriot-leaning coalition will most likely emerge as the winner.
Another aspect that Eva is ignoring is the fact that the incumbent globalists are increasingly failing the electorate. EU economy has downshifted to just 1% growth within the context of negative interest rates and a global recovery that has been going on for a decade now. It does not matter how many triumphs fueled by propaganda and mass-manipulation they will have along the way, which will help them win some more elections. As long as they fail to deliver for the electorate they will eventually lose and at one point they will lose big. The only thing that is keeping them in power is the fact that their ideological cult dominates most institutions of public persuasion, including media, academia and so on. But that can only go so far!
This constant spinning, in order to keep the hope high, is detracting from what is in general a good and informative analysis about Hungary.
This is hardly any blow for Orban, for Salvini it is a self-inflicted damage- he set the expectations too high and managed to transform what is objectively a further electoral advance on the ground for Lega into a seemingly set-back-, while for the Italian govt. is only a temporary relief.
@Invidious, 9:49 am and Zoli, 9:13 am
Ah yes! Spin-upon-spin. Dear Invidious and “Zoli”, the topic was the local regional elections in Emilia-Romagna. In these Mr. Salvini failed in his objective. Why do you find this is so hard to absorb?
What happens in a future election is speculation and, don’t forget, the “Surging Right” was hammered in the European Parliamentary elections.
Seems y’re still trying to spin a “viktory” out of a simple “not good enough”. Tiresome.
Óvoda, you are permanently distracting from topics and facts, but try to convince that the truth is distracting?
Yes, of course, you need to tell that fascists are marching to power again, no matter that they got less votes than a few months ago in the European elections. Elections that resulted in a huge democratic majority and fascists as tiny minority – while all fascists predicted a take over of the EP. No it showed that most Italians still have brains and know how to use them. Although they are famous for their votes for unbelievable figures to punish their parties for not giving them what they want, they have now made a decision not to elect the disaster. And since you have no clue about economics at all: our economy is in disorder, because the world economics are off the rails and one of the most stupid “I am a very stable genius” of the 21st century is a fan of trade wars. Not resulting in great times for the US economy either. In the democratic countries of Europe the public media are well controlled by the public, not by a government or one party. The private media in these countries show the same broad a variety as the voters. All from left to right. But hardly… Read more »
Manifesto of Italian academics who raised high the banner of racism , II Giornale d’Italia July 1938. Basis of anti-semitic legislation introduced shortly afterwards..
1. Human racial divisions are a fact of life.
2. There are master races and inferior races.
3. The concept of race is a purely biological concept.
4. The present population of Italy is Aryan in origin and its civilization is Aryan.
5. The addition of huge masses of people in the period since the Roman Empire is legend.
6. A pure ‘Italian’ race exists.
7. Now is the time to declare themselves openly racist.
8. We must draw a clear distinction between the Mediterranean peoples of Europe (Westerners) on the one hand and Levantines and Africans on the other.
9. The Jews do not belong to the Italian race.
10. The purely European physical and psychological characteristics of the Italians must not be changed in any way.
And now a new modern form of Caesarism now tries to make itself felt sitting on and reviving the dusted remnants of degenerate ruins. The Salvini legions: being primed for the march throughout Italy on the Appian through the pines of Rome.
@wrfree, 9:46 am
Unlike most Hungarians, alas, most Italians are deeply ashamed of the racialist views that you quote. I would look for Italian “civiltá” to prevail today. Really.
Point taken. Though with idealists like Salvini and VO types they are always fomenting their winters of discontent regardless of season. They use democracy to go for its achilles heels so as to debilitate it in standing up to the dissemination of pernicious ideals. It’s tough with the far-right. They hold fast to the fasces and all that it symbolizes. Always busy bees buzzing around on top of the bundled sticks.
Bimbi, some are able to learn out of the crimes of their past. The others are repeating them right now.
True, contrary to the surveys of weeks ago, but not to the surveys of recent days, Salvini did not seize leftist bastion E-R. Deo gratias. And true, his xenophobic party is in a slightly descending phase. However, it remains very strong, and for first time in our republican history the Left had to struggle to secure a majority in E-R. Fortunately big cities and urban areas ( Parma, Reggio, Modena, Bologna ) did not fall to Salvini’s squallid demagogy.
And, Italia is a country where regional, provincial, municipal elections rarely follow the logic of parliament elections. Winning or losing cities/regions is not necessarely a nationwide indicator. As a matter of fact, it rarely is. Also, I really would not make comparisons between political scenario in I and in HU, we are talking of two very different countries.
Regards,
Mario Mosca.
“And true, his xenophobic party is in a slightly descending phase.”
Slightly, too little to be worth looking for interpretations. More important is that its ally (FdL)-Brothers of Italy- has been surging by picking up the disaffected Forza Italia voters.
“for first time in our republican history the Left had to struggle to secure a majority in E-R.”
Umbria was also a center-Left stronghold, PD has had held sway there for over fifty years. But no longer.
“big cities and urban areas ( Parma, Reggio, Modena, Bologna ) did not fall ”
The big cities are indeed a problem for Salvini. They have been doing well during the this period of globalization. It is the same with the metropolitan areas in France or with, say, London in UK. They are also liberal by nature, same in Hungary with Budapest.
Hir TV did a victory lap yesterday over the elections in Gyor on the program Press Club with Gergely Huth, editor-in-chief of PestiSrácok, András Bencsik, editor-in-chief of the Hungarian Democratic Party and Ottó Gajdics, Karc FM and Free Earth. The lessons they draw are very different than those by Lendvai that Eva linked to. See https://hirtv.hu/sajtoklub/sajtoklub-a-szavazok-rajottek-ez-nem-jatek-2494210
This article https://magyarnemzet.hu/ahelyzet/becsuletbeli-ugy-7717277/ concludes that the great Gyor victory. From this perspective the “lesson from the interim election is that the opposition’s outburst last fall, and the euphoria of the balliberals and some right-wing intellectuals who had already started burying Fidesz, were premature.” Effectively Orban still firmly rules and will continue to do so, basically until he drops dead or retires to the Croatian sea shore.
In a democracy you never get to rule “until you drop dead or retire to the Croatian sea shore”. People get tired of your face no matter how good you have been/ you are. Familiarity breeds contempt, failures accumulate, erosion is unavoidable, people usually vote driven by hate, they vote ‘against’ not ‘for’, and you get old and fat as Orban.
The problem in Hungary is that the opposition is not a credible alternative. People are well aware of Fidesz corruption, cronyism, nepotism, yet they don’t see the people in opposition as a better alternative for governance. And that for a good reason. The opposition clings to an outdated discourse which limits its choices and inhibits the “political imagination” needed to come with appealing alternatives. It clings to a “liberal Europe” which is disappearing (and its hysterical response to its recent political defeats suggests it secretly suspects its day is over).
Óvoda, again you prove that you have not the slightest idea about Hungarian reality. Orbán would have been out of office since 2014 again, if it were to us voters to decide. In 2002 and 2006 he got better results and still lost the elections. But seen the radical change of the election system in favour of the state party that FIDESZ built to remain in power forever, Orbán can’t be removed by elections. Of course this is not called a democratic system, it is the system of the Hungarian dictator. The opposition has to offer nearly the entire democratic spectrum of alternatives, there are good people to be found among the opposition, sure, not all, but definitely more than FIDESZ has to offer. And of course Europe – the same EU that has a higher approval in Hungary than Orbán ever had – is our future, a small lonely country in the eastern half of Europe is nothing without the future United States of Europe.
If he retires from the ‘purple’ wonder if he’ll do what Diocletian did when he went to Split and live in his palace and that’s growing cabbages. Apparently he liked it very much after running the Roman world. Allegedly he was asked to resume office and said, ‘If only you could see the vegetables I planted by my own hand …you’d never think of asking such a thing’.
The epitaph: Your emperor helped make the vilag! Now your emperor has made igen finom kaposztaleves. Jo etvagyat! 😎
“[OV] retires to the Croatian sea shore”
seems preparations for such are going on by yacht, private jet and “military” plane…
see https://atlatszo.hu/2020/01/27/tavaly-is-horvatorszagban-talalkozgatott-a-kormanykozeli-luxusjacht-es-maganrepulogep/
off-topic , Euroatlantism
The UK on Tuesday announced Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei (and Hungary’s “strategic partner”) will build part of the country’s next generation 5G mobile networks.
https://www.axios.com/uk-huawei-united-states-5g-networks-aec01ea2-1c9d-4f6b-9054-5b083b29cd28.html
US : “UK sovereignty in jeopardy if Huawei used for 5G. The US is disappointed by the U.K.’s decision. There is no safe option for untrusted vendors to control any part of a 5G network.”
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/jan/27/uk-sovereignty-in-jeopardy-if-huawei-used-for-5g-us-warns
OT, but relevant maybe?
A cooperation between Macron and Orbán?
The Frenemies Who Want to Shake Up Europe
The article has a picture from their meeting last October.
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-01-08/the-frenemies-who-want-to-shake-up-europe?__twitter_impression=true
Doesn’t say much, if anything, on what they are about to cooperate. “Shaking the status-quo” is vague. On what ? The sanctions on Russia ?
But it is correct where it observes that “Indeed, shifting alliances threaten to make a renewed effort to bring Orban to heel all but redundant.” Europe has changed a lot since 2015 in favor of Orban, and the last year EU elections have legitimized figures as Orban all over Europe, Le Pen even beat Macron. It is a different Europe now.
If Salvini wins Italy will leave the failed eurozone and your anti humanity distortions will be exposed. You will run away into any hole no matter how tight they would be. Keep distorting. The end is near. The Italian left wing is falling apart
No it will not. It cannot. Leaving the Eurozone means that the state debt will increase even further compared to the GDP. First, since Italy would have to introduce lire again, the new domestic currency would automatically get devalued, after all this is one of the reasons to have an domestic currency, so in EUR terms the Italian GDP would decrease substantially. In addition, the lack of debt financing after default would mean a obligation to balance the budget which would cause recession. Thus upon leaving the Eurozone Italy would have to default on its debt. This is legally possible only on debt instruments which were issued under Italian law (those issued under UK or US law will forever remain outstanding unless purchased back or paid back by the sovereign). In any case, defaulting on government debt is a serious step partly because it is not worth to default for a 20% haircut, it wouldn’t make much of a difference. If you already default and cause such a shock to the system (be the first European defaulter since, I don’t know, communist Poland, for example) it is important to get at least 50% or bigger haircut to end up with… Read more »
Exactly! Italy can’t afford to leave the Euro zone, even less than Greece. Besides the fact that it was a mistake to admit Italy to the Euro it is just impossible to turn it back without smashing Italy’s economy and state finances. Salvini wants to get rid of Southern Italy (which includes for him the centre as well), but he doesn’t want to destroy the North to archive that. It is a wet dream of fascists to destroy the EU by any country leaving the Euro, their problem is that this doesn’t work without economic and fiscal destruction of their own country in no time.
Italy leaving the Eurozone (or even the EU) would be really nice for us Germans – holidays in Italy would become cheaper again with a failing Lira – just like holidays at the Balaton are slowly getting cheaper again. We now get 338 Forint for 1 € – compared to around 260 Forint 10 years ago when O1G took over.
Gyula, I’ll have a glass of nice Hungarian wine on you, cheers!
“holidays in Italy would become cheaper again with a failing Lira”
yes, but the German exports to Italy will become expensive and hence not bought by the Italians, so you won’t have that much money to spend on holidays. You may even go unemployed.
Germany is the greatest defender of the euro-austerity and of the EU because Germany has an unbalanced economy, one over-reliant on exports, not on its internal market, and thus it wants that the foreign markets remain open to the German exports and no currency manipulation to be possible.
Overall, Italy’s economy has been the loser in this euroscheme (and Germany got turbocharged) that’s why Italy wants to get out of the euro straitjacket.
Come on, Germany exports (quality products and ideas …) all over the world. Do you know how many cars are sold to China e g?
As usual, no real answer from ovoda …
Why did the Forint go down so much under O1G’s rule?
And re exports:
Italy is not a really important export destination for Germany!
The volume of German exports to Italy is not much higher than the volume to small countries like Austria, the Netherlands, Poland or Switzerland …
https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/exports-by-country
If you had a look at this list you’d see how diversified the German export structure is – even the USA are just a “small” partner with around 12%, followed by France with 10%.
Óvoda, perhaps you are not old enough to remember. The stability of the Euro is based on the way the stability of the German Mark was created. Mitterand wanted that Germany accepts a common currency, Kohl agreed only if the common currency would be as stable as the Mark. Don’t call nearly 30 years later “surprise, nobody expected”. Further you are mixing up state debt and economy, he latter was always pretty strong in Italy, while the state threw away money wherever possible. Getting grip on the dept without problems for the economy is possible – look at Belgium. But talking about an export orientated economy: Our own economy in Hungary would crash as soon as one car manufacturer would leave the country.
Ovi
Where did you get this ” Italy’s economy has been the loser..”?
The Italian finances were probably the worst in w.Europe (save for the UK before 1980s) before the Euro era.