The Hungarian government’s measures to stabilize the economy in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic were released today. The market weighed in immediately, with the Hungarian forint dropping further against the euro. Viktor Orbán’s announcement didn’t convince too many people that his government can handle this economic crisis.
One reason for the lack of confidence was the vagueness of the announcement. Another was his seeming determination to steer the Hungarian economy along the same path as before. For instance, he said the government would invest 450 billion forints to create new jobs, even though the concern of most people is holding on to their existing jobs.
Although a couple of days ago I was certain that Orbán would be true to his word and would not give “free money” to anyone, in his speech today he made a vague reference to a “unique Hungarian solution,” which involves governmental assistance to those whose work hours have been reduced. But, as far as I can see, there is nothing unique about this program; it already exists in Germany. Moreover, he offered no specifics about how this program would be implemented in Hungary.
What would Viktor Orbán spend the 450 billion forints (€1.1 billion) on? It seems to me that the prime minister is so pleased with the present structure of the Hungarian economy that he is planning to continue where he left off a couple of months ago. He will pour more money into tourism, construction, the film industry, agriculture, the healthcare industry, logistics, transportation, the food industry, and transportation. If I am reading it correctly, he isn’t planning to increase funding for the healthcare of the population but most likely will put some money into Hungary’s pharmaceutical industry and into biopharma research. Otherwise, tourism still holds the pride of place in his mind, despite the very real possibility that, after this devastating pandemic, enthusiasm for traveling or even receiving tourists will diminish. In addition, he plans to help Hungarian companies to the tune of €5.5 billion (2 trillion forints), mostly through low-interest loans.
There was not a word about the sizable segment of Hungarian society who subsist in deep poverty or those who live from hand to mouth. Unemployment insurance and child benefits remain untouched, but to make sure that Hungary’s pensioners, people over 65 years of age, will not abandon Fidesz at the next national election in 2022, he promised a gradual reinstatement of the extra month pension, which had been foolishly introduced by the Medgyessy government (2002-2004) and continued for seven years, until in 2009 the Bajnai government was forced to abolish it because of the deep recession that hit Hungary after the 2008 economic crisis. Today, as we watch the world economy collapsing around us, Viktor Orbán’s mind is focused on political gains. He generously announced that in February 2021 every pensioner will get an extra week of pension. The same thing will happen in 2022, 2023, and 2024, a couple of months before the election.
The above ad appeared on Fidesz’s website only a couple of hours ago. It reads: “Handling of the crisis in 2009 and now: The left took away the 13th month pension, took away one month’s worth of salary from the employees, and called in the IMF. The national government will give back the 13th month pension, will protect jobs, and will restart the Hungarian economy. Send it on.” In the midst of an enormous health, social, and economic crisis, Fidesz is already in campaign mode.
Hungarian economists are aghast at the fiscal stimulus package, partly because of Orbán’s vague solutions and partly because the economic hardships of a large percentage of the population are not addressed at all. Tamás Mellár, a retired professor of economics at the University of Pécs and a member of parliament since 2018, called on his colleagues to get together and formulate their solutions to the crisis. Several people have already joined him: Péter Bihari (former chief economist of the Budapest Bank), Péter Ákos Bod (former chairman of the central bank), Attila Chikán (minister in the first Orbán government), Péter Felcsuti (former chair of the Banking Association), Dóra Győrffy (professor of economics), Júlia Király (former deputy chairman of the central bank), Zoltán Nagy (former president of the Hungarian Competition Authority), Gábor Oblath (senior researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Éva Palócz (CEO of Kopint Tárki), Mária Zita Petschnig (Pénzügykutató Intézet), András Vértes (president of GKI/ Economic Research Institute), Werner Riecke (former deputy chairman of the central bank), and Ágota Scharle (Budapest Institute for Policy Analysis). They are ready to respond once the Orbán government produces an economic program that can be professionally evaluated.
I think most economists would agree with those opposition politicians who have so far responded to Orbán’s announcement. Most of them are convinced that, without offering financial help to the vast majority of those who have lost their jobs and thus their livelihood, the engine of the economy cannot be re-started. They believe that the Orbán government’s remedies will only aggravate the problem. If no financial help is offered to people who have lost their jobs, hunger might appear in certain parts of the country, especially in areas with a large Roma population, although even many better off people cannot hold out longer than a month without a steady job. Politicians are also appalled that none of Orbán’s favored oligarchs seems to be taxed while Orbán is taking away money from the cities and towns which serve the citizens in the most direct way.
It is also worrisome that the handling of the crisis is entrusted not to Mihály Varga, minister of finance, or to a respected economist but to, of all people, László Palkovics, an engineer whose expertise is automotive brake systems. But he has proved himself to be a jack of all trades for the Orbán government. He already managed to ruin the public education system and is in the process of doing the same to the universities. We will see how he will solve the economic crisis.
Eva and her minions on this site simply can’t help themselves when it comes to this crisis. They declared Hungary’s response to the crisis to be a disaster, even before the first victim died. Now they are declaring an economic failure, even though no such event has taken place yet.
The people losing their jobs right now will in large part be re-absorbed into the workforce once containment measures end. In the meantime they are eligible for unemployment compensation.
Eva keeps looking at what countries using US dollar or Euro are doing, not realizing that it is a very risky monetary experiment which could at any point blow up leading to a catastrophe. Hungary cannot and should not do that. Nor should it engage in Gyurcsinomics, in other words borrow beyond sustainable capacity then suffer the pain of IMF bailouts.
Focusing on relaunching the economy is the right direction. It is true that some may fall through the cracks in the short term, but if the economy fails to re-launch, there will be a huge canyon and most will fall in.
Zolidiot, you’re getting crazier and funnier all the time!
Have you had a look at that list of politicians and economic experts that our dear Éva gave and their reasoning?
Oh, I forgot that you’re not interested in Hungarians and their well being at all …
Why don’t you go to breitfart or the Daily Stormer for your propaganda? They might be waiting for you with open arms … 🙂 🙂
PS:
Once again – how do you explain the riches that O1G’s friends and family collected in a few years?
CONGRATULATIONS!!!!
Zoltán, you made in one point a correct statement on the field you know anything about: “Focusing on relaunching the economy is the right direction.”
Just 1 question: Why does your boss doesn’t do that????
The only parts of economy well working are export of goods by foreign companies and import of money by the regime. When will the internal market start again? It’s down since 2010!
Guys,
Why respond to Zoli’s parroting the propaganda lines or pushing his own nonsense which is self evident, enough to put a well deserved “Idiot” and/or “Liar”.
Odes to the Dear Leader:
Who Can You Trust in a Crisis?
A leader who truly loves his people.
https://www.amren.com/videos/2020/04/who-can-you-trust-in-a-crisis/
(in the comments more odes to the Great Man and his Russian counterpart, who are protecting Eastern Europe from the evil Western influence, God bless them and keep them safe)
When a country is in danger, who should be in charge?
[00:00:19] Someone who’s smart, tough, experienced and I’d say most important, someone who is 100 percent devoted to the welfare of his people. By that standard, in these difficult times, the man who gets my vote is Viktor Orban, prime minister of Hungary.
https://russia-insider.com/en/america-needs-leader-hungarys-victor-orban-jared-taylor-video-transcript/ri28613
You’d think it was Pravda writing about Brezhnev.
Russia Insider?
That’s an absolutely crazy right wing/fascist site – it’s almost funny how every craziness appears here – of course the Jews, Bill Gates as manipulators – and of course Ron Paul and Putin as heroes.
Funny in a way if you have a strong stomach, but be careful …
@ Eva and her minions.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/hungary-teaches-poland-a-qe-lesson-beware-of-your-currency
This article clearly explains why you are all wrong and what I have been pointing out is correct.
Hungary’s central bank cannot just buy up all the debt that Hungary wants to issue in order to deal with this crisis like the US can or members of the Euro currency. The reason why the forint weakened so much is precisely because the central bank tested the limits of monetary easing and now we know where that stands.
what is left is fiscal policy based on Hungary going to the market with bond issuing, with central bank only buying on the margins. So yes, Cyurcsinomics would be a spectacular disaster (once again), Orbanomics is once more correct. Stimulus and safety net only to the extent that the market allows, no more.
Zoli – That’s a “directly back to the drawing board” for you, before people find out how much you screwed up!
The Forint is (nominally) locked to the Euro. The differences are a consequence of the intermittent reverse spin of the Hungarian roulette. Nobody outside Hu has any obligation to make up for the losses caused by over-spending.
You missed the point of this entire conversation!
Indeed, Michael missed to prove the silly propaganda point you tried to make, Zoltán. But in opposite to you he knew what he wrote about, while you wrote just BS.
Michael
The forint is not locked to anything, the MNB has practiced a very liberal policy, eg. doesn’t announce even FX bands targets, didn’t intervene to defend the Huf. It was testing the market and was forced to change course “flagging bond sales”.
There are no miracles as we see, the Huf tumbled, the inflation was 5% already before the c19 crisis. Matolcsy couldn’t walk on water.
And the storm comes only now …
Well, the treaties know the obligation to develop a stable exchange rate already before joining ERM 2, since joining the Euro is an obligation Hungary accepted when joining the EU. In this meaning the Forint SHOULD follow the Euro. That the MNB doesn’t even want to fulfil this obligation is clear to everybody (except the colonist of course), Michael stated very clearly that there is a difference between the obligation and the policy of Matolcsy. I completely agree that worst times for the Forint are to come, a currency already in bad shape during the good days….
Obs – True! That’s why I say “nominally”, because of the implied common intentions to maintain certain levels of liquidity. Germany an France tested the limits of bonds-loaning several times, without consequence, while countries like Greece and Italy have had a few restrictions imposed on them.
Zoli
Idiot or liar?
The propaganda dept gave you the head line, but you didnt read the article (or you’re lying), because :
“As the forint tumbled last week, Hungary’s central bank tilted away from its looser monetary-policy bias, raising rates and flagging government bond purchases…..
“Looking at what happened in Hungary, Poland’s central bank must very cautious,”
Rational approach on hungary’s economical situation. Hungary is not the same country as US or EU that can print out money as much as they can. For the government to give free money sounds wonderful but it is just temporary, one time solution for the pandemic situation. At the same time, governmental debt is going to shoot up. The best option is to hold the industries not to go bankrupt and wait until the situation is over. Government is basically not a job creator but private sector like industries and companies is.
Definitely wrong! Neither US nor Euro-member governments can order their central banks to “print” money, Hungarian regime can, since the governor declared to serve with the MNB the government. That means nobody is serving our currency. The only result will be that our Forint is losing more and more value, even more than during the reign of Orbán before.
If most people want to put their heads voluntarily on the executioner’s block voting for the viktor and supporting the Fidesz government is the best way to do it.
Talking, suggesting anything different to the viktor, and protesting is equivalent to ZERO! Removing him is the only answer.
I bet that the viktor will be the next President Of Hungary for 9 years after he rearranges the government (and the so-called constitution) and the President will hold supreme executive power.
Turning things over to the engineer, Palkovics; what could possibly go wrong in his managing the economic crisis?!
As Professor Balogh commented he has”already managed to ruin the public education system” and is “doing the same to the universities”. Yes, what could possibly go wrong!
The same criminals that have been stealing left and right now propose a magicians handful of tricks.
Even the communists did not enjoy the style of living that Orban and his family, biological and adopted enjoy.
Re: Mr. Palkovics and the economists..
It would probably be the best if the economists sit down and have a chat with him where they could disabuse him of the notion that the economic game can be run from something like a horse betting parlor. This is not the time to waste on ‘win, place or show’ and having Magyars to potentially hold losing tickets on the running of bad horses. Economists study the flows and the ins and outs of money. They shouldn’t expect to get involved on the merits of bad betting games.
Magyars need to know forints will keep going into their pockets with jobs. And if they don’t have money to spend it’s likely the country won’t be going anywhere. The Western tourists can only be fleeced so much anyway.
He gave 13 billion forints to the Romanians at the end of 2019. I’m sure they’ll gladly say no to the money and return it to the Motherland.
The “speciális magyar formája” (the “unique Hungarian solution” Éva quoted) is reason to worry about. These unique solutions made by Orbán used to be bad for the working people and even worse for the economy. Just the few usual suspects are winning with this uniqueness….
“the [OV’s] government would invest 450 billion forints to create new jobs”
now guess for what OV’s “new jobs” will be…
for me it would be an unimaginable surprise if not for OV’s pet projects* and wallets
OVs “unique Hungarian solution” = again OV’s pet projects* and wallets
*e.g.the City Park [Városligeti] projects
The most disgusting is the again prominent use of National [“Nemzeti”] Government, as there’s absolutely nothing national about OV&Co, as they represent a clear minority of the people in Hungary who voted
PS: as Observer yesterday commented, see https://hungarianspectrum.org/2020/04/05/anon-why-viktor-orban-has-no-time-to-deal-with-criticism/#comment-187532 , there’s such staggering complaining about others# and complete lack of true will of doing something all together# in Hungarian society even now
#best example on this site is M
Re: OV’s pet projects. 444 had a picture taken from a remarkable angle:
Koronavirus.gov.hu
Palkovics is energetic and 200% loyal to Orban. His answer to any and all directives: Jawohl. Consider it done. He doesn’t argue, he executes. Thus he is the single most valuable person to Orban, the perfect role model for his underlings (ie. besides Sandor Pintér, the perennial Minister of Interior, but Pinter is less energetic now and more powerful politically).
So Palkovics is now a kind of Lazar Janos but without any political threats. Palkovics has no political (party) background, he is politically harmless and he is not popular, not charming, not likeable. This does not mean that he could not fool foreigners with his language skills or moderate tone (when talking with foreigners) but in terms of domestic politics he is a total non-entity.
Right. Palkovics is the perfect patsy and has the looks too.
Spreading of Corona virus per County in Hungary [update]
https://app.flourish.studio/visualisation/1799004
Well after the seemingly [almost] day off, today’s official test results show a energetic start of this working week by the Corona virus…
Note that in absolute numbers most new cases were in Budapest and surrounding Pest county [tot.+39], relatively seen the highest increases were in Fejér [+62.5%] and Veszprém [+30%] county.
total nr.of official deaths [“Elhunytak”] by the Corona virus in Hungary:
in one day from 38 up to 47 [+9 = +24%]
see https://koronavirus.gov.hu/elhunytak
total nr.of official positive tests in Hungary:
in one day from 744 up to 817 [+73 = +10%]
Orbàn made mostly vague and wishful statements about restarting the economy and some nonsense like creating a new job for every lost one (an obviously impossible task for anyone but those walking on water). The latter lie flies immediately in the face of Orbàn’s almost total disregard for the people who have been losing their jobs by the thousands right now.
Moreover the bulk figures dropped don’t match at all, eg. the envisioned increase of the budget deficit by 1.5% translates into 330 billion Ft, add the total budget reserve of 400 and we have only 730 billion, which in no way match the five programs Orbàn was talking about. Add some peanuts for the pensioners.
If the past is any guide, there will be big difference between what Orbàn says and does, so we’ll only know when we see it.
👍👍👍👍
Puts another look at Magyar Noah’s ‘up the creek with no paddle’ …even the allatok have made a run for it.
Orban is waiting for the EU funds. He doesn’t yet know how much money he has to spend. The use of the idea of 13th month pension is a strategic move: if the pensioners are happy (hopeful at least) than he is OK. The left doesn’t understand one thing which the right instinctively gets: Voters never remember what politicians did for them, but always remember what they did TO them. Taking away the 13th month pension was something (symbolic) that no pensioner will ever forgive for. Basically Bajnai killed the left-wing’s prospects for 20 years: whoever was a retired person (or just before retirement in 2008) will always hate the left-wing (except for the cohort of urban, educated women who are more left-leaning than other groups, perhaps because they valued that the socialism/left-wing ideology achievedprogress for women). Orban is just keeping his gains, he simply understands politics better than the left. Fidesz’ rural voters mostly vote based on cultural considerations so they don’t care about economic issues that much. Orban figures they will survive, they don’t need the money and anyway hate the concept of welfare (“welfare” meaning to them gipsies will get free money; this is a total no… Read more »
Marty
C’mon, cut it off, the pensioners ” will always hate ..” is BS.
The pensioners did understand the 13th pension, I followed the comments on radio and media, because the forint and the economy was stabilized ; every pensioner has working children/relatives and the statement that “at least they are working” was often heard.
Rural people “don’t care about econ issues..” but they care about paying the grossers bills, don’t they? And here we have a 10-12% increase already and income loss with no relieve in sight for the already poor rurals.
Please, more facts and less doctrinaire opinions.
I seek some Corona-clarity by asking questions. I would welcome informative responses. The government’s website: Koronavirus.gov.hu gives the following figures in the 5th week of the pandemic: “Fertőzott”, 817: “Gyógyult”, 71: “Elhunytak” (Click), 47: “Hátósági házi karanténban”: 14,997: “Mintavétel”, 23 746. These headings mean, in turn, “Infected”, “Cured”, “Dead”, “Compulsory House Quarantined” and “Samples Taken”. “Fertőzott”. Are we really to understand that there are no more than 817 infected persons in the country? [The PM says he believes there are many more – on what basis?.] Are these the number of positive results of tests on people in hospital only? How were these people selected? “Gyógyult”. How is this number compiled? Are these people only those who, having tested positive, were treated in hospital and have now been released after testing negative? “Elhunytak”. How is this number compiled? Are these patients who have died in hospital only? Are home deaths included, perhaps after diagnosis by a family physician? [This last category were excluded from the death count in the UK until recently.] Odd to see that under (you must click) “Alapbetegségek” never is “coronavirus infection” listed. Other maladies are listed but apparently these are not what killed the patients, which… Read more »
“Are we really to understand that there are no more than 817 infected persons in the country?” Impossible to know at all. The official data give the number of infected persons found by testing. ““Gyógyult”. How is this number compiled? Are these people only those who, having tested positive, were treated in hospital and have now been released after testing negative?” Generally yes. I just would not exclude those being tested first positive and later negative without being treated in hospital. ““Elhunytak”. How is this number compiled?” Good question. Up to now only one deceased has “nincs adat” as other health issue. No data can mean that this 80-year-old man was very healthy before the infection, but also that someone just forgot to file the information. One thing should be taken for granted: all suffered from COVID-19, otherwise it just doesn’t make sense to list them. ““Hátosági Házi Karanténban”. How are people selected for this category?” Of course at the borders, but also those who are suspected. From media reports I understood that they aren’t tested in all cases. Supervision happens by the police. If they don’t get sick the time is 14 days. It is to the communal council… Read more »
@István, 6:38 am
Thank you. That was a very good try. But for me it is not “clarified” – maybe that is the idea of it all? – I can just imagine, “Wow! Only 817 infected after 5 weeks? Hungary must be doing something right.” Maybe Marty would have the answer…
I guess my point on the “Elhunytak” was that other health conditions should not be listed if patients die of the coronavirus infection. I mean, like, they only have themselves to blame or sumpin’?!
A bit like the Great Father in Heaven condemning you to hell and adding, “Yeah, you’re a nice guy, but you’ve got all that lying, fornication and political shit dragging behind you as well”.
“Hungary must be doing something right.”
This I often enough read from sources from France, Benelux, Germany and Austria. Fast and tight measures and only a small number compared to other countries in Europe. Knowing my country and reading about a lot of incidents in the Hungarian press as well I am thinking a bit different!
That the other health issues are listed this way I can’t understand either. So it is very easy to know what the health condition of the UK embassy member was. You can’t publish any personal details this way! To say a number of x had cancer, y heart problems and z had sick lungs might be useful to identify whether someone has a higher risk or not. It was in the news long before Hungary had the first official infection that age and health conditions are important factors for the way the human body fights against the virus, so it isn’t new, just the form is different. Anyway, I can’t help, my impression is that there is an undertone “they wouldn’t have lived much longer anyway, we are in control”.
“Our leader V. Orbàn is doing everything right ” is the message, “see, our numbers are much better than xxxxx” is the proof.
“The people in Bud don’t abide by the rules …. Budapest will become the center of..” everything bad that happens in Orbanistan (starting with the loss of Tarios / Locall gov) is an ominous insinuation too.
Note that all dead are announced as sick people with chronic diseases.
The nationality tagging was dropped afte we learned that the bad migrants / some brown people brought the virus to the sacred Hu land
Meanwhile the policy of NON TESTING continues and as a result thousands of infected people without symptoms continue to spread the virus. Seems many elderly Huns will pay with their lives and many young ones with their livelihoods so that Orbàn can continuing posturing as protector and savior.
Well its complicated because Covid 19 formally does not kill people, most die from illness related to the virus in the respiratory system. Here in the USA Covid 19 is being listed as the underlying cause on the death certificates. At Stroger Hospital in some cases the patients die prior to formal Covid 19 testing. Multiple conditions and sequences of conditions resulting in death are common, particularly among the elderly. So the attribution to Covid 19 can in some cases be apparently dependent on the judgement of a doctor. I linked below a technical document on these issues used in the USA.
Based on neighboring averages, you should be looking at figures somewhere in the vicinity of (conservative estimate) 400-500 dead, at this stage of the pandemic.
add.to Istvan’s answers [@6:38am]
“Hátosági Házi Karanténban”
there’s an article [afaik Hungarian only] about this at https://koronavirus.gov.hu/cikkek/ezert-fontos-hatosagi-hazi-karanten-bevezetese-es-betartasa
as there are about 15.000 in “Hátosági Házi Karanténban”, there should be a lot of houses with the “Red Card” [Stop – Tilos a Belepes, etc] as shown at the bottom of that page.
Has anybody her/himself seen any anywhere in Hungary?
ps1: what’s really missing in HU Corona data [but also for many other countries, or at least difficult to find], is the number of people hospitalised with Corona, as all patients [all is also non-Corona!] before or immediately after hospitalisation will [have to be!] tested; this the the best figure to understand the real spreading of the virus in a country
PS2: what really irritates me is that the ENglish icon at koronavirus.gov.hu sends one to abouthungary.hu, showing only propaganda and hardly any relevant info for non-Hungarian speakers
[and to be clear abouthungary.hu is OV’s mouthboy Z’s poxies blog! from general propaganda turned into Corona related propaganda…]
I for my part haven’t seen such a sign in real life, but I am not that much out of house right now.
That the “English version” of koronavirus.gov.hu is the ugly propagandasite “about Hungary” is very interesting indeed!
One of our direct neighbours, an old lady, has this sign.
She was taken into hospital, one of her grandchildren cared for her dog for a time – and now she’s back, waving at everybody (us included) really friendly.
My wife will look into this, asking other neighbours.
PS and a bit OT re the case of our young ones’ neighbour in BP:
They told us right now that the “betég szállitás” brought the old lady home in her hospital gown, no other clothes, without checking whether she had the key to her apartment!
That’s why she had to sit in her gown in the staircase for at least 30 minutes until the situation was resolved!
This panel house from Kádár times is really crazy – its five stories were built with a large staircase in the center of which is room for an elevator – but the elevator was never built, no money …
I often wonder how people manage to get up to the fourth floor e g with their shopping, especially when they’re old like most inhabitants.
“but the elevator was never built [in Kadar times], no money…”
afaik and have heard in Bp, elevators were obligatory only for apartment buildings higher than 5 floors
have heard the story about a foreign construction company with office in a 4-floors building in center Bp, so without elevator, and finally they installed it themselves [while their office wasn’t even at the highest floor]
Sure, Ferenc!
We have similar laws in Germany – with 6 floors or more it’s a Hochhaus” with special rules regarding safety in case of fire etc.
But even with 5 floors I couldn’t imagine going up and down every day or even moving stuff – and there are many older people living there.
In the 30 years after Kádár there should have been time (and money …) enough to build those lifts …
I think the issue you are raising Bimbi is complex and I can’t even attempt to discuss intelligently aspects of it, but part of it I can. This will be a long answer. The issue you are raising Bimbi is actually global, not limited to Hungary. I believe there is actually an undercounting of Covid 19 cases here in Chicago and also in Hungary, and elsewhere due to multiple factors. Here are some of them that I see. A percentage of Covid positive people may not know they have contracted Covid 19 because they are asymptomatic, the exact percentage of these individuals internationally is far from clear in the literature. Here are the newest critical studies discussing asymptomatic individuals who are effectively “carriers” of the virus listed this week by the US CDC. Rothe C, Schunk M, Sothmann P, et al. Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany. The New England journal of medicine. 2020;382(10):970-971. Zou L, Ruan F, Huang M, et al. SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load in Upper Respiratory Specimens of Infected Patients. The New England journal of medicine. 2020;382(12):1177-1179. Pan X, Chen D, Xia Y, et al. Asymptomatic cases in a family cluster with SARS-CoV-2 infection.… Read more »
“So my guess is numerous deaths have happened outside hospital settings in Hungary that may be Covid19 cases”
The best way to get this clear would be checking death statistics, comparing current data to averages from let’s say last 10 years.
Do you know where to find these, and if so, how are these updated [weekly, monthly?]
PS: same can be checked for total number of people hospitalised, if this goes now clearly over the 10 year average [in this period of the year], the most likely, almost only, cause is Corona.
Also note that many people with other health problems are now surely avoiding hospitals, because of fear of getting infected with Corona there!
So the Corona hospitalisation rate would be even higher than the first look would suggest…
I assume it would have to be done through the death registry system in Hungary. There will be a lot of work done on this in the next several years I suspect. I also believe the World Health Organization needs to devote some resources to how death certificates are being written in relationship to Covid 19. Globally there is no uniformity to this process as far as I can tell. In the USA it varies county to county, and the medical examiners are actually appointed by politicians if that can be believed. Most coroners are elected officials in the USA who lack the specialized medical training that would allow them to conduct autopsies. That job falls to the medical examiner, who is a physician, and typically serves by appointment. In the USA the CDC created a standard that can be seen here https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/misc/hb_cod.pdf its the handbook contains instructions for physicians on cause-of-death certification. But there are issues relating to why a person is dead, particularly what is called the underlying cause of death. Ferenc my understanding is that opposition groups in Russia have looked at year to year death data for Moscow and statistically have shown that there was a… Read more »
“I have to wonder if Orban’s new law would block Hungarians from even discussing this possibility publicly in the media.”
If it might disturb the public it is a crime. You wrote about some facts that at least disturb me. If you were in Hungary you wouldn’t be honest, but a criminal. BTW I deleted today a sentence before posting and left the thinking to those who read.
I don´t want to be cynical, but somehow this information on the black page where the comorbidities are listed reminds me of the letters the parents of the handicapped children in the nazi hospitals were sent.
Death cause was always pneumonia.
Jan – It has turned out that corona infection causes dramatically raised mortality from most lung-infections.
Michael, true
Istvan (Chicago), 7:15 am
Transparency is not complex.
and here are today’s official figures: https://index.hu/belfold/2020/04/08/ujabb_fertozottek_magyarorszagon/
I think it’s pretty clear that the figures are unreliable, the only stat that I really take account of is the number of deaths, 11 new ones announced today. Don’t know how accurate but I read somewhere (probably on here) that if you consider the total number of deaths as somewhere between 1% and 2% of total infected, you get a rough idea of the situation. 58 people have officially died in Hungary with coronavirus so far…
8TH DAY OF THE OPPORTUNISTIC POWER GRAB DICTATORSHIP!
“The unique Hungarian solution”. How many times have we heard this nonsense from prime ministers in third world countries! It represents, of course, a large pinch of braggadocio, mixed with a spoonful of nationalism, leavened with a bit of hopeful “feel-good” and a dash of exclusivity.
The result adds up to zilch. Interminable propaganda. Goebbels knew.
Re: that ‘unique Hungarian solution’
Sure sounds haunting again . In the stock markets there is a measure called the ‘VIX’ index which provides a measure signifying expectations of price volatility in the markets. Some call it the ‘Fear Index’. When it rises investors run hellbent for the exits.
Might be something for the EU to take into account with their own VIX and get ‘DIX’ to provide data on dictator-watch. And that’s a measure of the expected level of dictatorship to be seen in a country on a daily basis. In fact we with the ‘Kiraly’ at court probably could use too.
So far a slow increasing baseline has occurred in Orban country (and others) on DIX. Recently the ‘fear index’ has jumped up alright and spiked upward. What’s troubling about DIX is in this instance it’s hard to get back to that original baseline as the spike just takes things to work on a higher level.
Renata Uitz chair of the Comparative Constitutional Law program at the Central European University (CEU) wrote this opinion piece for the Euronews https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/07/the-eu-needs-to-stop-funding-viktor-orban-s-emergency-rule-view. As is often the case with lawyers globally they look to existing legal structures for solutions. So it is with Renata Uitz.
The author’s conclusion is “Conditioning access to EU funds based on member states’ respect for the founding values of the European Union has never been more urgent – and has never been more achievable. Otherwise, the Union will continue to support a regime that has already demonstrated its commitment to abusing the unlimited emergency powers it arrogated.” Yes so the EU continues to support the Orban government which is providing cheap labor and profits to numerous multinational corporations, then what is to be done?
I conpletely agree with “Conditioning access to EU funds based on member states’ respect for the founding values of the European Union has never been more urgent – and has never been more achievable.”
The argument of companies producing in Hungary is not realistic to me. I myself still work for one of them and when Orbán started to fight against foreign companies 10 years ago an exit strategy has been prepared. Some retailers left, banks were sold, the industry mainly remained (not all of them). But Orbán needs these companies more than the companies need Hungary. I don’t say Orbán wouldn’t fight against them, but if they leave in numbers or just one of the big players, our entire economy is not damaged, but dead.
Squeezing the robbers “has never been more urgent – and has never been more achievable.”
HEAR, HEAR! Been ringing this bell for years, but maybe this time “now” something will be done.
CoViD-19 deaths. [The current official data] / [a prediction through August 4] = % behind us Hungary 47/477 = 9.85% (440 ICU beds are available by the source below, although Orban gave a 2,500 figure) Slovakia: 2/251 = 0.80% (188 ICU beds are available) Ukraine: 45/?? Romania: 182/804 = 22.64% (1772 ICU beds are available) Serbia: 58/?? Croatia: 16/166 = 9.64% (216 ICU beds are available) Slovenia: 30/104 = 28.85% (40 ICU beds are available) Austria: 243/385 = 63.12% (649 ICU beds are available) —– Czechia: 80/411 = 19.46% (355 ICU beds are available) Germany: 1810/8802 = 20.56% (5891 ICU beds are available) France: 8911/15058 = 59.18% (1761 ICU beds are available) Italy: 16523/20300 = 81.39% (2059 ICU beds are available) Spain: 13798/19209 = 71.83% (1364 ICU beds are available) UK: 5373/66314 = 8.10% (799 ICU beds are available) —– Denmark: 187/529 = 35.35% (92 ICU beds are available) Sweden: 477/4182 = 11.41% (79 ICU beds are available) Norway: 76/669 = 11.36% (101 ICU beds are available) Finland: 27/225 = 12.00% (61 ICU beds are available) —- Netherlands: 1867/5808 = 32.15% (919 ICU beds are available) Belgium: 2035/3546 = 57.69% (799 ICU beds are available) —– US: 10993/81766 = 13.44%… Read more »
Karacsony was invited by Orban to the Wednesday cabinet meeting.
Orban just took way tens of billions from Budapest’s budget, annulled Budapest’s decision to stop the Liget project (so that Orban can move the prime minister’s office into the Buda Hill Castle), the stadiums are being built in Budapest (despite the opposition’s promise to stop them), the theatres were taken away from Budapest (except for a 4) so Karacsony is being humiliated at every turn. This is another one. Orban enjoys this.
In addition, Orban – instead of Karácsony – announced complete free parking in Budapest for car owners. Smart, people love free thing,s and carowners hate to pay for parking. I’m pretty sure Orban’s approval went up in Budapest.
Instead of protesting, however, the municipalities are doing nothing about the humiliations.
OK – they wrote a very long joint letter which even educated opposition leaning people failed to read. Also, individual politicians write long blog posts in FB which are shared/liked 8 times etc.
I wonder if Karacsony will attend the meeting as a punching bag or finally grow balls and start protesting seriously.
Karacsony has enough courage. Otherwise he wouldn’t have taken up the challenge to run for mayor. Other than growing his testicles do you have some serious recommendations too?
The decision to become a pushover flip-flopper or a strong-willed, decisive leader is the most critical one for any politician, especially during times of crises. It is more fundamental than deciding to run for a post.
Politicians must be seen to be stand for something, for some higher principle, and shouldn’t just be policy wonks and technocratic managers of a city.
So, it is high time to for Karácsony to shed the image of a weak compromise obsessed technocrat.
So, it is high time to for M to shed the image of a “it’s always somebody-else’s fault”-ing obsessed BS-er.
I wonder if M will ever stop using others as punching bags and her/himself finally grow testicles and start co-operating together with others against the true evil of OV&Co.
Marty is right regarding Karacsony.
In general, the ultra-conservative regime supporters hate Karacsony with a surreal passion.
He is the new Gyurcsany for them.
Karacsony must obliterate the lies of the regime.
and M should support K with real advice instead of negative insinuations!
otherwise M is OV’s weasel…
ok, so no serious recomnendations from you
You still live in the paradigm in which candidates propose a list of substantive policy recommendations and the best proposal and candidate wins. Nope. Remember the UK elections. The Torys had one sentence after years of performing a pathetic farce and the Labor came up with the most detailed party manifesto ever written (Labor supporters claimed it contained enough proposals for a decade). Guess what: people voted for the simple message and disregarded the substantive proposals. So: the image of the leader is of paramount importance because nobody will ever read party programs (Fidesz did not even prepare programs during at least the last 2 elections). The leader represents the ideology and the program itself. What may have worked for Budapest will not work for the whole of Hungary because people outside Budapest tend to favor tougher, more decisive, less left wing (less “welfare” payments and no universal income) candidates. They are happy to elect a person who beats his wife regularly, who was convicted for embazzlemet or who participated in porn videos and stole 10bn forints. They tend to favor people who confirm to the image of “leaders”, who such voters can accept in the hierarchy above them. A… Read more »
Despite Marty’s thouroughly assuring spin on the supreme economic capacity and autonomy of the Prime Minister, the circumstances in the EU will have a big say in determining the size of the available purse.
It is more than certain, that Hungary will not be able to realize most of the current economic ambitions, without substantial loans from abroad.
Today minister of finance Varga, took part in the first round of EU negotiations, which at this stage are inconclusive, but the general impression is one of reluctance towards cheap loans. Italy and Spain both have an urgent need for extra money, which naturally leaves slimmer pickings for the smaller countries, regardless of how big their hats may be.
Quote of the day…handy to write down.
‘True individual freedom cannot exist without economic security and independence. People who are hungry and out of a job are the stuff of which dictatorships are made’. FDR message to Congress 1944.
‘Nuff’ said.
Don’t want to speculate on the still vague econ stimulation packages, but it seems half of the HUF 1350 bil investment package is earmarked for the tourist industry !!
My bet is it will go to the Mèszàros/Rachel Orbàn holdings around the Balaton where 25-40% will be misappropriated through court contractors and the multiplayer effect will be minimal as the tourist numbers there will take years to recover it is forecasted.
The same money given to workers under or unemployed will be much more effective economically, which is also a social imperative (not in Orbanistan though).
“OV’s tourist industry”
also please explain me what any tourist “industry” [is it making anything?] is adding to structural development of any country
Orbán = Hungary
Wellbeing of mafia = wellbeing of Hungary
Structural development of family and friends assets = structural development of Hungary.
Ferenc
Tourism is primarily a low tech service industry, but it is part of the econ structure and can contribute a lot to the GDP eg. of the Balaton area, Budapest city, Paris, Vienna, Spain, Greece. Not everyone can have a Silicone Valey or like, particularly if one has a mindset from Felcsut.
Wasn’t the main point of Ferenc to lift the economy onto higher levels than low level service only? Needn’t to start with a 2nd Silicon valley, but let’s start at least with a little something! And I think there will be always a need for low level employments as well, indeed look at Paris and Vienna, they offer everything AND tourism. So nothing against tourism, just not the “unique Hungarian way” to have nothing else but low wage industries.