Serious questions about Orbán’s action plan–Part II

Among the critical reactions to the Orbán government’s announced plans to save the country from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic are some recurring complaints. One is that the prime minister, who is the only one who counts, moved far too late on almost all fronts. When at last he made an announcement, it was merely to promise that more information would come later. Thus, information arrived in dribs and drabs, and the pieces often didn’t fit. Confusion reigned.

I suspect that the Hungarian prime minister, like so many others, underestimated the severity of the COVID-19 outbreak and its economic impact on the country. Moreover, once it arrived in Hungary, he tried to downplay its spread. It is notable that Hungary is testing fewer people per one million population than most countries in the region. At last count, Slovenia had tested 15,303 per million; Austria, 14,022; the Czech Republic, 9,977; Slovakia, 3,914; Croatia, 3,332; and Hungary, 2,880. Lagging behind Hungary in testing are Poland, at 2,843; Romania, 2,693; and Serbia, 1,413. Therefore, the number of diagnosed cases is still relatively low in Hungary.

Note the missing tiles and the elevator that doesn’t work / Source: Zsúrpubi

As we can see from examples around the world, in countries where the government postponed the painful decision to shut down economic and social activities, the loss of life was substantial. And when the government was reluctant to move quickly on the economic front by providing cash for households and smaller enterprises so they can survive for a few months, they put the entire economic edifice at risk. If no such assistance comes and demand dries up, rebuilding the economy will be more difficult and will take a much longer time. So far, the Orbán government has been concentrating on the economic survival of larger companies and on job creation, which in Péter Ákos Bod’s opinion is not the role of the government.

Viktor Orbán seems to believe that, once the pandemic is over, the world will return to where it was in February. Tourists will be pouring into Hungary, and large ships will be floating on the Danube just as before. The incredible number of hotels, built with the encouragement of the Orbán government, will again be full of people. In reality, not only will many tourists stay at home, but towns that normally see a large number of visitors may hesitate to receive them all, at least for a while. These towns are, of course, being especially cautious in the throes of the pandemic. For the Easter weekend, the mayors of favorite tourist sites took the lead and said that they intended to close their towns to tourists. They were told they could not do this without permission from the government. Orbán obliged.

In the past I often wondered about the health of Hungarian public finances. Although I knew that an incredible amount of money arrived from Brussels, bolstering the local economy, I still had my suspicion that the books might not be in such great shape as the government would like us to believe. And now that we learn that the government’s actual contribution to dealing with the crisis is only 3% of the GDP, I can’t help thinking that perhaps the alleged abundance of funds Orbán so often boasts about doesn’t really exist. Most of the money the government is ready to part with was already included in the budget under a different name and designation. That’s why some critics, like Zoltán Bodnár, the former deputy chairman of the central bank, called Orbán’s proposals “the greatest sham in Hungarian history.” The only real help came from the Hungarian National Bank, which made enormous amounts of money available. Unfortunately, the government, most likely because of Viktor Orbán’s strange notions about a “work-based economy,” will not use it for what is really needed, an economic safety net and the creation of demand.

Péter Ákos Bod and other economists suggest stopping some of the planned giga-investments financed by the European Union and diverting the money to reviving the economy. Experts also call on Orbán, who seems to be stuck in his belief that Hungary must keep its deficit under 3%, to accept the blessing of the European Union to ignore the deficit cap that until now was considered to be sacrosanct. Orbán has always been ready to accept a handout from the EU and will undoubtedly tap into some of its emergency programs (though see below). Whether he will agree with Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, who just today urged European politicians to work together and agree to float 500 billion euros worth of “corona bonds,” is another matter.

Viktor Zsiday, an investment analyst and the portfolio manager of the successful Citadella Fund, began his interview with 444 by saying that, in the present economic situation, insisting on a work-based society is a serious economic mistake. He is satisfied with the steps taken by the central bank, which would allow the government to spend as much money as possible. But, unfortunately, Viktor Orbán is reluctant to give up his economic ideas, although they may be doing harm. In most other countries, says Zsiday, out of 100 companies the government tries to save 98, but if in Hungary, because of the reluctance to spend money, only 80 companies are saved, the consequences can be dire, such as permanently low GDP, high unemployment, and low incomes. The Orbán government originally planned a 1% deficit, which they now reluctantly changed to 2.7%, which according to Zsiday is still unrealistic. Every country will have high deficits, most likely between 5% and 10%, which under the circumstances he finds acceptable.

Meanwhile, the officials in charge of the economy cannot agree on even the most basic economic projections and actions. According to Finance Minister Mihály Varga, the government expects a recession of 3%, but György Matolcsy, chairman of the central bank, at the beginning of the week, was talking about 2-3% economic growth in 2020. Varga, in an interview with Bloomberg, said that the Hungarian government is ready to take advantage of the fund the European Union set up to resolve the coronavirus crisis, whereas Viktor Orbán and several Fidesz politicians claim that this money doesn’t exist.

Independent analysts paint a darker picture than government officials. Economists at Kopint-Tárki, an economic research company, predict at least a 5% recession but say it could be even higher if the situation is not handled better and if the crisis goes on much longer. They predict worse outcomes for Hungary than for other countries in the region because it is an economy with very close economic ties to the outside world and because the government package being contemplated at the moment is so paltry and slow to roll out. GKI, another economic research group, just released the news that in its nearly 30-year history, the consumer confidence index has never fallen as much in a month as it did between March and April 2020.

Given all of the pessimistic predictions, Viktor Orbán may well change course. His political radar is very sensitive, and when he realizes that his popularity is suffering because of his anemic response to the crisis, he may become a big spender to save the country, the Hungarian people, and, above all, himself.

April 9, 2020
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Ian Woods
Ian Woods
April 9, 2020 8:38 pm

Maybe the economically illiterate Orban Government could look elsewhere to seek advice on dealing with one of the most serious issues faced globally in the past 70 years. He should not look to Trump or Putin – they are ignoramuses and as Banffy’s book title suggests ‘Have been found wanting.’ I am no great supporter of the Australian Government in the way that it dealt with the refugee or bushfire issues. However, in consultation with the Australian state and territory governments they have taken the issue seriously from both a health and economic perspective. In Australia with a population of 25 million to date there have been only 50 deaths from the virus to date and the number of cases is dropping with significant testing being carried out. Furthermore, they have introduced programs to help the un-employed, the pensioners and the under-employed. Funding equivalent to 10% GDP has been injected to revitalise the economy. Orban may recall that Australia, because of its economic policies, was one of the few countries in the world to come out of the GFC relatively unscathed. I have Hungarian relatives and enjoy visiting Hungary (which I have done many times) but am saddened when I… Read more »

István
István
April 10, 2020 8:05 am
Reply to  Ian Woods

Ian, Orbán decided that economy doesn’t work as economists say, but he knew a better solution – already starting in 2010 he implemented his “work based” orbánomics. Nothing said about sufficient jobs (BTW he did not create any, these are abroad, made by foreign companies because of cheap production, re-declarations in statistics and not to forget by giving 350 000 Hungarians a broom to clean the streets.) Central point of orbánomics is to tax consume to death and to have low nominal taxes on income. Nominal because lower and middle income was worse off anyway. Fine for Ali Orbán and his 38 robbers, but our economy is extremely depending on export and even within export very much on car exports and of course getting free money. Our economy is not self-sustaining. Orbán had enough chances to listen to experts, but this isn’t how NER works. We citizens are ought to co-operate with the owner of the country, but he is the one who decides and only he is the nation.

wrfree
wrfree
April 10, 2020 8:57 am
Reply to  István

Re: that ‘central point of Orbanomics’

And just to suggest that the country under his purview has made the ‘dismal’ science worse. Apparently in one area the govt and bankers got real good and drunk on all the gelt coming in from the EU as a ‘benefit’ of membership.But in hindsight it was really giving an alcoholic the keys to the kocsma.

Before the virus, there had to be many broke or going broke in the country. Next up it will be the government going into partnership. A duo of economic cripples. And like an irresponsible household they always have overly ‘spent’ more than they take in and we shouldn’t think that only relates to a thing called an ‘economy’.

And this eco tidbit might be remembered at this particular time : ‘money is the root of all evil’. 😎

Andybabe
Andybabe
April 9, 2020 11:03 pm

Orban — to ever become a big spender for the common good? Humbug…

George
George
April 10, 2020 12:29 am

Hungary is in debt trap… No easy way out. If Orbán starts to spend he will risk serious inflation and a shaky banking system. In the last 10 years he got lucky, Hungary was sailing o the tailwind of the German economy… and that is over.

Observer
Observer
April 10, 2020 3:55 am
Reply to  George

The Hu economy and finances have had a large smoke and mirrors component: budget deficits were hidden in the subsystems, EU money was poured into projects with low or nonexistent ROI and this is/will be felt in the slowing growth.
IMO part of the high growth in 2014-2019 was generated by the Orbàn mafia starting to invest the funds misappropriated in the 2010-2014 period in Hu, growth was 1.7% or so during this period.
(I guess it was too expensive to launder so much money and reassured that his rigged system worked in 2014 Orban decided to take the risk of coming out, hence the meteoritic rise of Mèszàros and clones).

Marty
Marty
April 10, 2020 9:52 am
Reply to  George

Exactly.

Ferenc
April 10, 2020 2:14 am

What I’m most surprised about and actually irritates me is that all those economists hold on to their usual practices and methods of comparing now to what was before. This is an “out of the box” situation, which requires “out of the box” thinking and measures. In the current situation, imho just at the start of the Corona Crisis, it’s nonsense to stick to this. Serious parts of our lives and “the economy” are ON HOLD, most parts of it are Partially ON HOLD, and only a few sectors are running on full steam, with health care related even on “over steam”. So comparing to what was before with overall figures is useless and nonsense. We all just together have to come through this Corona period in such a way that after the step by step unlocking of societies, we all together can come out the best possible, or better said least bad, way. Imho this can be done best by arranging that we all have to worry minimum about our own existence and therewith can keep the laws/regulations/recommendations explained to us as minimizing further spreading of the virus, till there is a vaccine for all or, if we’re lucky,… Read more »

Observer
Observer
April 10, 2020 3:29 am
Reply to  Ferenc

Ferenc Seems you’d benefit from a crash course in economics. – “Comparing to what was before is” is not nonsense, but the only way to know where are we standing. – “should be put on hold and even by partially free”, but who decides what to put on hold and who pays as there’s no free lunch or anything? How would you feel if it’s your income ? – careful with the “out of the box” or radical solutions, last time very radical ones were applied the communist systems impoverished their societies. All “third ways” led to the Third World. The western economies are very complicated live systems which have been evolving for hundreds of years. The much maligned economists have been pretty successful in mitigating the effects of crises since 1930 and the world has never had it so good. As we see new solutions are being considered and applied, eg. state paying part of payroll costs or directly sending cheques, offering tax relief, companies are voluntarily carrying costs, etc. The main problem is the political system = the decision making process, ie. the Türkmenistan, Orbanistan and like ones are bound by design to make big mistakes since they… Read more »

Ferenc
April 10, 2020 4:15 am
Reply to  Observer

“How would you feel if it’s your income?”
First I feel with everybody’s income [and well-being], not only mine.
Second, and of course, all people and companies, whose income “falls flat on its face” must be supported! Why ask the question?
My main point is this Corona Crisis most likely will be long, minimum half a year [note: I commented this already just some 3 weeks ago, which feels much longer ago in these times]; during that period almost all measures will have to be kept by all. This can best be achieved by a sort of ON HOLD, which can be partially, on almost all essentials for life.
So the best way is to understand that, and then find the best, or least bad, way to get there.
IMHO any other, basically short-term, thinking will result to even more severe consequences at the end and after Corona has been overcome.

Put simple: short term capitalist thinking is not compatible with the best way to together overcome Corona

Ovidiu
Ovidiu
April 10, 2020 2:46 am

“Note the missing tiles and the elevator that doesn’t work”

I note that His Majesty wears a proper (and expensive) anti-viral mask, N95, while the doctor has a standard one which really is pretty ineffective against airborne contagion
(though it still matters in the sense that you won’t breath in a large virus dose/load at once when you do get infected, and this in turn increases significantly your chances of fighting it off successfully and survive it).

Oh well, Orban is protected by history and his Hegelian destiny so he does not really need it. I guess he put it because it looks bigger/more dramatic/ than the standard mask. For the show, for the empathy-angle. He wants to suggest that he is in great danger himself, just as his people/his country.

April 10, 2020 3:26 am
Reply to  Ovidiu

Ovoda, even here you’re wrong – the doc’s nose is not protected by the mask and that’s how we normal people breathe in and out – so if he were infected he would spread the virus this way! That picture also reminds me of my experience with Hun hospitals – third world would be a compliment! I had to go to hospitals in Hungary myself (As a war child I also am a member of a risk group …) but mainly I helped friends and family like the one who was diagnosed with cancer driving them to services like radiation therapy etc. I never had any problems with the staff, they are all hard working and friendly – but the missing tiles and the out of order lift are typical. I could add catastrophic electric systems (life threatening!), furniture that looked like 19th century, uneven floors that might make you fall over, barely working and noisy air condition, toilets out of order and of course missing toilet paper, soap/sanitizer and paper towels. I saw only one medical installation which looked kind of perfect, rather new – and of course proudly built with EU money … PS: As I see it… Read more »

Ovidiu
Ovidiu
April 10, 2020 4:29 am
Reply to  wolfi7777

“the doc’s nose is not protected by the mask and that’s how we normal people breathe in and out …As I see it both aren’t wearing gloves – wtf does that mean ?

You are today more stupid than usually, quite a performer. It is for the show, for appearing in the media, the implicit message is “the Leader shares the anxieties and hardships of his people”.

Michael Detreköy
Michael Detreköy
April 10, 2020 6:12 am
Reply to  Ovidiu

Pssst, Hey OvI! You’re not supposed to make your burlesque entré until halfway into the second act!

April 10, 2020 7:22 am
Reply to  Ovidiu

Ovoda, do you really believe (like Marty and Zolidiot) that Hungarians are so stupid that they don’t see the non-existent protection of the doctor and at the same time applaud the measures taken for their emperor?
So much for sharing hardships …

princess
princess
April 10, 2020 7:57 am
Reply to  wolfi7777

Ova believes only one thing: the paycheck he gets from the Ministery of Propaganda.

Istvan (Chicago)
Istvan (Chicago)
April 10, 2020 8:54 am
Reply to  wolfi7777

Wolfi my experience volunteering at Stroger Hospital here in Chicago was that both doctors, nurses, and support staff once outside the doors of the ICU or Covid isolation wards are not practicing continuing use of personal protective equipment around other staff who are more than likely contaminated with the Covid-19 virus. I believe there is a reason for this, working with an N95 mask on or even with a powered air purifying respirator (PAPR) and supplied air hoods is exhausting when it goes on for hours. Your instincts tell you to strip this stuff off as soon as possible once you are outside of immediate danger, but you are not out of immediate danger. When I actively bagged a patient who was experiencing acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) the heat I was generating caused me to be dripping wet. Once we handed off the patient to the ICU staff I went outside and desperately wanted to remove my mask, I realized that I was within feet of other medical staff who were contaminated themselves. I actually walked a full block away before I removed my mask and was able to get some cool air. Even then I could have possibly… Read more »

Little Lamb
Little Lamb
April 10, 2020 2:49 am

The more one looks at that photo, the more one finds to be depressed about. The tiles fallen from the wall, the out of service lift, the fire extinguisher on the floor. But the most telling of all, is that Orban has a full face mask and the doctor does not.

Ferenc
April 10, 2020 2:57 am
Reply to  Little Lamb

There’s even more in OV’s FB video the photo is taken from:
–even in the short 52 sec time of the video OV, the Hungarian Serial Democracy Killer, wasn’t able to leave out his “M” word [“Migránsok”], when listing all Hungary’s “troubles” to the doctor [the one in the photo]
–also OV seemed to be roaming through the building, just going ahead wherever he liked, so when opening the door to the Intensive Care, a woman behind him shouted: “Stop! You’re not allowed to enter there!” but OV had opened the door already and the camera showed what was behind…

April 10, 2020 3:32 am
Reply to  Ferenc

At least in some Hungarian hospitals where we’ve been to you can’t open these doors leading to “safe areas” yourself. You push a button and then someones looks out and lets you in – or not.
And there are large signs: Do not enter!
But of course you know, O1G doesn’t have to follow any rules/laws …

wrfree
wrfree
April 10, 2020 9:24 am
Reply to  wolfi7777

Will never ever understand the mentality regarding ‘health care’. Verdict: a national disgrace. A raging virus is understood to kill impersonally. But magyar health care looks to simply deflate life with dispassionate disinterest. Something deeply wrong in the upper belfry. ‘Efficiency’ appears to be taken too far. Not sure if they expect the doctors to be adept in building maintenance as well.

Ferenc
April 10, 2020 4:02 am

Spreading of Corona virus per County in Hungary [update acc.official data!]
https://app.flourish.studio/visualisation/1799004

For the whole of Hungary a serious daily increase of +21% [by far the highest in 2.5 weeks time and meaning a doubling time down from 7-8 to 3-4 days!]
Nevertheless in 6 counties Corona seemed to have taken a day off [+0], for the other counties main developments as follows:
–Budapest* +152 [+36%]
–Fejér* +17 [+31%]
–for Baranya, Veszprém and Zala +4/5 [+21 till +28%]
–note is that Fejér reached 2nd place overall… which makes sense considering Felcsút being the financial shadow capital of Hungary…

*latest official data for both Budapest and Fejér strongly indicate possible serious hotspot(s)!
–for Budapest this seems to be a retirement/nursing home [Pesti úti idősotthon]
see https://444.hu/2020/04/09/ahogy-megjelent-a-koronavirus-egy-budapesti-idosotthonban-beindult-a-kormanyzati-kommunikacios-gepezet
–for Fejér I haven’t seen any further info

Don Kichote
April 10, 2020 6:00 am
Reply to  Ferenc

Ferenc, you know the Hu data is fake, right. Could you explain to me what can be read from this chart you so arduously draw up?

Ferenc
April 10, 2020 6:18 am
Reply to  Don Kichote

I know, but I don’t have any better data.
What the chart can be used for:
–follow the spreading of the virus in Hungary, keeping in mind that it’s incomplete and possible manipulated data [see my specific note on Wednesday, when Karacsony was invited to OV’s meeting]
–possibility of others to check with what they observe in their neighborhood, fitting in with the official data, or not, and when not what would that mean

Note: I have done the same where I live, so when in Hungary more details came available [daily county map], I added this to my spreadsheets

PS: what I consider mostly missing in the official HU info are data about Corona patients in hospitals and Intensive Care, those should be in between positive tested and deaths, and give indication of local severity of the illness caused by Corona and the capabilities of the local health care system to cope with it

Michael Detreköy
Michael Detreköy
April 10, 2020 8:10 am
Reply to  Ferenc

The missing data speaks it’s own clear, but silent, language.
The real figures, which are being held back and filtered, most likely hold a scaring-potential, deemed capable of overpowering the propaganda.

Don Kichote
April 10, 2020 5:55 am

And the king said unto the priest, Thou wilt keep them dumb, I will keep them poor. This is an ancient method of exercising power over the people. Around the 12th century, free citizens began to build and maintain public schools because Catholic schools only learned texts from the Bible that only strengthened the power of the churches and produced functioning “believers”/idiots from the students. Believers who followed some priests of the Catholic Church who claimed that Jews poisoned the wells so that Christians would die of the plague. This is approximately where Hungary is today.

István
István
April 10, 2020 7:47 am

“Hungarian economists: The government doesn’t understand or recognise the gravity of the crisis”

https://index.hu/gazdasag/2020/04/10/magyar_kozgazdaszok_a_kormany_nem_erti_vagy_nem_vallja_be_a_valsag_sulyossagat/

D7 Democrat
D7 Democrat
April 10, 2020 8:07 am

It really is Christmas time for the Fat Dictator: a cowed and terrified population; the suspension of even his joke of a democracy and Budapest (full of liberals, lefties, Jews and the Roma) being the centre of the virus in Hungary. Although the media and our heroic doctors and nurses are terrified to tell the truth regarding the situation, the EU funds still keep rolling into Orbanistan. They have made many mistakes but those leading the democracies in Europe and elsewhere are basically decent people regretting every single death of their people, knowing Orban as we do is there anyone here who believes that he cares one way or the other (apart from the continuation of his regime) how many people are slain here? So, let’s be brutally honest. Due to their deliberate neglect of the health sector Orban and the rest of his scumbags are guilty, at the very least, of manslaughter. Loads of state of the art football stadia for his hillbilly rednecks and his corrupt business “partners” but no safety equipment and falling-down hospitals for the decent people of the Hungary. If you are a Fidesz voter you should look at the victims in your own family… Read more »

Michael Detreköy
Michael Detreköy
April 10, 2020 8:36 am
Reply to  D7 Democrat

That, more or less, sums things up. The EU-funds are only a temporary supplement, which will dry out too.
The propaganda will have to switch to Soviet-mode, to maintain the illusion, and accept a standing among traditional delusional preachers.

In 2022 the news and debate programs will center around: “How could we be so blind?” – “What are the prospects for securing an economic balance?” – “How shall we approach a national strategy for not getting further into debt?”

Marty
Marty
April 10, 2020 10:02 am
Reply to  D7 Democrat

I tell you that literally people will eat grass before Orban giving up the ongoing stadium, swimming pool, international sports games projects. There is no force whatsoever that can change his mind on that.

This is his signature legacy: these gigantic buildings upon concrete buildings (phallic symbols of course) will long outlive him annoying the hell out of liberals (any decent people) for decades to come. He will have his fun even from the grave.

D7 Democrat
D7 Democrat
April 10, 2020 10:06 am
Reply to  Marty

“He will have his fun even from the grave.”
Or from the graves of his people, that was kind of point I was making.

Some shitty little stadium in Backwoodsvar means more to him than 100s of “his” people dying because of his neglect over years of the health system.

Marty
Marty
April 10, 2020 11:31 am
Reply to  D7 Democrat

Exactly. He doesn’t care about anybody, but he sure communicates as though he does. Whereas Gordon Bajnai is hated as a heartless technocrat who took away the 13th months pension in a heartbeat because according to experts it was necessary Orban has the image among the masses that he “understands our problems” (took up conflicts with powerful actors like banks, the EU, the IMF, cut utility prices because he understood they were hurting people etc. etc.). It’s all about communications and he is very good at that. Voters are just not rational.

Michael Detreköy
Michael Detreköy
April 10, 2020 11:46 am
Reply to  Marty

Being broke and under financial administration is very rational, and that’s where he is heading, regardless of what supporters think of him.

Ferenc
April 10, 2020 12:13 pm
Reply to  Marty

M’s reasoning and arguments are as solid as the seemingly biggest subject in follow image:
comment image

Michael Detreköy
Michael Detreköy
April 10, 2020 10:42 am
Reply to  Marty

You project the past onto a future full of bigger challenges than any decrees can cope with. It doesn’t matter what his mind is up to when there is no money to spend.
The crisis and deep debt that will go on for years, changes the big construction plans to concrete relics and unpaid bills.
The country will be busy trying to maintain survival.
Forget all the power and propaganda – The army will be working the fields and the police will be busy handling the logistics, in order to prepare for the next winter, or do you think Orbán will slow down the earth’s orbit with his mind too?

Istvan (Chicago)
Istvan (Chicago)
April 10, 2020 9:00 am

I was surprised that no one on the blog has commented on Orban’s radio show today where he admitted Hungary does not have enough ventilators. Really he is a lot like Trump, a bullshit artist. See https://index.hu/belfold/2020/04/10/orban_7500-8000_lelegeztetogep_kell_majd/ . But on the other hand I am thinking that most of the commentators and likely Eva herself assumed Orban was being untruthful about Hungary being well prepared for this virus, so why even bother to point out the obvious I guess.

Ferenc
April 10, 2020 9:35 am

number of “ventilators” in currently use in other EU countries:
assuming that all Intensive Care patients are using “ventilators”
–country [population]: nr.of patients in IC

–Belgium [11.5 million]: since one week stable nr.of 1,300
–Holland [17.4 million]: since one week stable nr.of 1,400
–Germany [83 million]: last week from 2,000 up to currently 2,300 [add.info given ca.80% using ventilators]

Now compare that with OV’s “info”:
–Hungary [9.8 million]: prepares for possible peak of 8,000

My conclusion: OV is s per usual BS-ing squared OR he thinks about letting the virus run free and spreading uncontrolled and unlimited over the people in Hungary… [2nd option will overall be the fastest, but will result in the most severe consequences!]

Ferenc
April 10, 2020 9:48 am

something else I read about OV’s radio “interview”
acc.OV “some countries are already seeing light at the end of the tunnel”

my opinion:
this man really doesn’t know what he’s talking about!
even in China they haven’t seen such light, because outside of Hubei there hardly was an epidemic and therefore only very few Chinese people could build up some sort of immunity against the Corona virus, so there’s a high risk for a restart through reintroduction(s)

Istvan (Chicago)
Istvan (Chicago)
April 10, 2020 10:20 am
Reply to  Ferenc

Yes you are totally correct that there could indeed be a second wave even in China and South Korea. See in particular this story https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-09/coronavirus-may-reactivate-in-cured-patients-korean-cdc-says?sref=lAelTOaG . There was indeed a deadly second wave during the 1918 influenza outbreak, it was by far the worst variant. All of us who have had college level biology course work are aware of mutations of genes, but generally how rapidly this can take place is a mystery to most of us. It is also possible in 1918 there were multiple variations of the virus infected the same people with one effectively dormant until after the less deadly one receded due to partial immunity of those people infected. Indeed Ferenc public health authorities don’t want to discuss this much because of the possibility of creating mass hysteria, I can’t blame them to be honest.

Ferenc
April 10, 2020 9:06 am

Don’t remember having seen this here, so herewith
Apr.07 news from “our Polish friends”, no not PiS, but PO [Civic Platform, founded by its current party leader Donald Tusk]:

Poland’s Civic Platform has backed expelling PM Orban’s Fidesz from the EPP. Enough is enough!

signed letter at https://twitter.com/radeksikorski/status/1247440691317407744

PS: it seems that EPP wants to deal with OV&Co [in foci terms: Red Card, OUT!] only after Corona travel bans are over

tappanch
tappanch
April 10, 2020 9:08 am

Orban is generous. In the last few days, he donated

600,000 masks to ethnic Hungarians in the neighboring countries,
200,000 to Serbia,
100,000 to Croatia,
100,000 to North Macedonia.

https://24.hu/kozelet/2020/04/10/koronavirus-magyarorszag-hataron-tuli-magyarok-vedoeszkozok/
https://index.hu/belfold/2020/04/07/szijjarto_peter_eszak-macedonia_koronavirus_maszk_migracio/

That is one million masks !

At the same time, most pharmacies in Hungary do not sell any masks. I saw shoddy surgical masks at a farmer’s market two days ago.

The doctors & nurses of Hungary still make do with surgical masks, which do not protect them.

Istvan (Chicago)
Istvan (Chicago)
April 10, 2020 9:14 am

This CNN story about the failures of the EU relating to Covid-19 https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/10/europe/eu-bungled-coronavirus-response-analysis-intl/index.html again mirrors the failures of the Trump administration in the USA. I guess my own cynicism relating to elected governments along with the politics related to them is reinforced by these things, I am striving for a balanced perspective, but it’s pretty difficult right now.

wrfree
wrfree
April 10, 2020 10:55 am

‘As one diplomatic source told CNN: “After this is over, we can’t all go back to sitting round the table and pretending this didn’t happen’. Hmm…This statement was probably in vogue also with previous viruses and the financial crisis in ‘08. Somebody should do a study on the concept of total inertia when it comes to ameliorating the global village’s obvious dysfunction. And especially in some of its leaders who are at bottom certainly ‘not prime time’. Like castoffs from a bad cookie dough factory. How did THAT get in there? Afraid humanity still refuses to ‘get it’ , that is jawing in front of the abyss that’s getting wider and wider to accept the destruction. Inertia mixed with rank stupidity is putting us in positions which we should not and cannot be in. That is if the world’s country leaders expect their citizens to have a life where everybody can live it pretty much in liberty and happiness and be free from micro-managed interference. But obviously some do not think this way. They want to put the screws in and carry the ‘cuffs’. Today the running of capitalism and socialism both are like in some sort of sick bay… Read more »

Jan
Jan
April 10, 2020 11:09 am

Istvan (Ch), can you explain your cynism relating to elected governments? And, elected governments compared to what?

Istvan (Chicago)
Istvan (Chicago)
April 10, 2020 12:00 pm
Reply to  Jan

All I can say it comes from my experience as a US Army officer having served in Vietnam near the end of our combat operations, having been in the invasions of both Granada and Panama. Elected politicians send soldiers to their deaths or permanent impairment, avoid responsibility, then walk away from it all. I never served in a military ruled by a dictator like Hitler, Stalin, or Mao, but I assume many officers who served under dictatorships share my cynicism.

I suspect that public health officers have similar perspectives, I know many back in 1918 came away deeply cynical about their interactions with elected officials over the spread of the influenza.

Jan
Jan
April 10, 2020 1:18 pm

So, you mean the elected politicians of the USA, not the elected politicians of other democracies who in many cases listen to the medical experts after a most of the time late answer on the pandemic.

Ovidiu
Ovidiu
April 10, 2020 12:52 pm

The guy is right, a rare sight on CNN, but what is to regret about it ?
The EU-project became a European suicide cult managed by the globalist elites bent on demographic transformation.
When the members realize they will get no help in a crisis–a major raison d’etre for the EU– it will hasten collapse.

Michael Detreköy
Michael Detreköy
April 10, 2020 1:26 pm
Reply to  Ovidiu

Pssst, Hey Ovi! – The curtain dropped on the second act several hours ago!

Ferenc
April 10, 2020 12:48 pm

OV, április.10, rádió “interjú”: “Régi történet ez a kriminológiában, hogy Al Caponét megkérdezték, hogy miért rabolta ki a bankot, és azt mondta, azért, mert ott van a pénz, de szerintem ez a logika a gazdaságpolitikában nem célravezető.”
OV, Apr.10, radio “interview”: “There’s an old story in the criminology, that they asked Al Capone, why did you rob the bank? And he answered, because that’s where the money is. But in my opinion that logic is not effective in economic policy.”

ahum, what did OV&Co do in 2010-11? didn’t they rob the pension funds and foreign banks, just because that’s where was money?

more about economic policies pretty close to OV’s at:
https://hu.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fasiszta_gazdas%C3%A1gpolitika
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics_of_fascism

Michael Detreköy
Michael Detreköy
April 10, 2020 1:29 pm
Reply to  Ferenc

What does the syringe secretary put in his shots?

tappanch
tappanch
April 10, 2020 1:41 pm

One-week change in the number of dead.

April 10 vs April 3, 2020.

Italy: + 28.4%
Spain: + 44.9%
France: +102.8%
UK: +130.4%
Hungary: +196.2%

tappanch
tappanch
April 10, 2020 1:49 pm
Reply to  tappanch

Croatia: +162.5%
Romania: +121.6%
Austria: + 89.9%

tappanch
tappanch
April 10, 2020 3:53 pm
Reply to  tappanch

Death rates per 100K people, as of April 10.

New York state: 40.3
Spain: 33.8
Italy: 31.3
New Jersey: 21.8
France: 19.7
Louisiana: 15.1

https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS-USA/0100B5K8423/index.html

tappanch
tappanch
April 10, 2020 5:03 pm
Reply to  tappanch

European death rates per 100K people, as of April 10:

Spain: 33.8
Italy: 31.3
Belgium: 26.3

France: 19.7

Netherlands: 14.5
UK 13.4

Switzerland: 11.7

Sweden: 8.5

Ireland: 5.9

Denmark: 4.4
Portugal: 4.2

Austria: 3.6
Germany: 3.2

Slovenia: 2.2
Norway: 2.1

Romania: 1.4
Czechia: 1.1
Serbia: 1.0

Hungary: 0.8
Poland: 0.5
Croatia: 0.5
S Korea: 0.4
Ukraine: 0.2
Slovakia: 0.0

wrfree
wrfree
April 10, 2020 2:14 pm

Orban and Trump at this time play to and have an affectation in ‘romancing’ the crowds. They’re in a way like what the friar said to Romeo:

‘Thou art wedded to calamity’. The Bard..Romeo and Juliet …

tappanch
tappanch
April 10, 2020 3:24 pm

Orban is about to transfer 290 billion forints (!!) worth of stocks + 2 very expensive pieces of real estate to a private propaganda institute !

https://444.hu/2020/04/10/a-mol-es-a-richter-hatalmas-reszvenycsomagjaval-tomi-ki-a-kormany-a-mathias-corvinus-collegiumot

https://www.parlament.hu/irom41/10046/10046.pdf

Calculation:
2044*81942946 [MOL]+ 6595*18637486 [Richter] = 290,405,601,794

tappanch
tappanch
April 10, 2020 3:34 pm
Reply to  tappanch

The same stock portfolio was worth 352.4 billion on 02-17-2020.

Ferenc
April 11, 2020 3:09 am

deleted
was posted at wrong post, sorry