The following is the official declaration of the 15 well-known Hungarian economists who answered the call of Tamás Mellár, a retired professor of economics at the University of Pécs and a member of parliament since 2018, to formulate their solutions to the crisis. I introduced all of them in my post titled “Viktor Orbán’s response to the economic crisis falls far short” a few days ago.
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An economic and social crisis is unfolding in Hungary. The economic measures proposed by the Hungarian government are insufficient to address the economic crisis and do not even attempt to address emerging social issues. At the time of a national crisis, as economists and responsible citizens, we believe it is important to express our concerns and encourage the government to take stronger steps.
We believe that our government can successfully manage the crisis only if it has the trust of citizens and employers, if we have broad agreement on shared goals, and if we are convinced that our sacrifices are necessary, equitable, and commensurate with our objectives. The measures publicized by the Hungarian government do not point in this direction and are not going to generate broad agreement and trust. A sense of solidarity among members of our society must be an important element in building this trust. However, this program does not ask the more fortunate members of our society to contribute to our response to the crisis.
Among other problems, we are concerned that:
- The government’s economic response does not clearly define its goals and the tools that are proposed to accomplish these goals — many key details are not available. This not only limits our ability to provide an evaluation of the government’s response but also maintains harmful uncertainty among Hungarian workers and employers.
- The government wishes to cover most of the costs of its response from reallocating resources within the budget, by taxing companies, and by taking resources from local governments. This means that the government is failing to provide necessary additional resources to improve our economic outlook and at the same time it is damaging the trust of Hungarians in its intentions. Taking resources from local governments endangers delivery of crucial services at the time of this unprecedented crisis.
- It appears that the government either does not realize or does not acknowledge the severity of the crisis, and as a consequence is unwilling to provide the additional financial resources that are needed to save the Hungarian economy. The government and the Hungarian National Bank have published projections for the budget deficit and economic growth that are obviously unrealistic and demonstrate that our decision makers are out of touch with reality. These projections not only damage their credibility but are also harmful because they make it impossible to provide an appropriate economic stimulus from much more substantial spending increases. The sources of spending that have been publicized are not enough to meaningfully cushion our economy from the 5-10% recession projected by expert analyses in Hungary and abroad.
- The government has offered no solutions to the problems of Hungarians who are losing their jobs at unprecedented rates and are facing a dire situation. The idea of a “work-based” society pushed by the government and further reliance on workfare are misleading and inappropriate in the current situation.
We propose that the Hungarian government take the following steps:
- The full implementation of a program under which the government guarantees workers’ wages based on policies implemented in Germany.
- The replacement of income losses that cannot be addressed by guaranteeing wages through transfer programs.
- The extension of unemployment insurance, the increase of cash assistance to families, and an expansion of transfers to individuals who are unable to work.
- The provision of substantial financial support to local governments and non-governmental organizations who carry out crucial work at this time of crisis and who are able to offer direct and personalized help to those most in need.
- The involvement of the more fortunate members of our society, making sure that the idea of solidarity is central to our economic response. A reduction in non-essential spending along with a substantial increase in government spending overall, as an increasing budget deficit should not hinder effective government action.
Péter Bihari
Péter Ákos Bod
Attila Chikán
Péter Felcsuti
Dóra Győrffy
Júlia Király
Tamás Mellár
Zoltán Nagy
Gábor Oblath
Éva Palócz
Mária Zita Petschnig
Dániel Prinz
Werner Riecke
Ágota Scharle
András Vértes
“The involvement of the more fortunate members of our society, making sure that the idea of solidarity is central to our economic response. ”
Well, that is not going to happen. The Orbanist Mafia who make up the economic elite of society are not renown for their community spirit, much less for sharing their ill-gotten gains with those who are presently struggling to afford even a loaf of bread.
The Fidesz elite’ s biggest hardship at the moment is the closure of Nobu and the extreme shortage of good quality Blow in the city. Laughing at the plebs as their meagre resources start to run out and their families start to die in Orban’s hospitals will give them perverse entertainment not promote any kind of “Road to Damascus” Conversion
No, this means the “well off” people for whom personal income tax decreased after 2010. The rearrangement of the personal income tax, basically a tax cut for the highest earners (and which was a net increase for the low income people – who nevertheless support Fidesz the most, ie. people with lower than 8 years of primary education) was very significant, amounting to some HUF 500bn forints remaining with the top 10-15% (mostly the 10%). The fidesznik oligarch class (including local bosses) is much smaller than this. I don’t have a feel for the natural inclination of this group but I know that many who are not strongly fidesznik do fear that the opposition would increase taxes back to the level where the figures had stood essentially for decades before Orban came to power in 2010 and/ or increase other taxes (e.g. on dividends) not to hurt them but just to be in line with more leftist values. Secondly, it is a political axiom that if you hurt the middle/upper classes they are more likely go to the opposition because they are the only people who can actually afford to vote for the opposition. The rural working class and the… Read more »
You are losing it, Marty!
Don’t you realize that Orbán’s make-believe honeymoon with the voters is over, in the real world?
The idea that taxes are primarily an instrument for punitive measures and signaling political orientation is absolute nonsense.
And you are simply more than dead wrong about the absence of appreciation of the political message, by what you presumptuously call “the masses”, to support a demand for a visible degree of solidarity by a middle class, who can afford it.
You ignore that there is no money for realizing necessary measures for “normalizing” society under the current conditions, which will last at least one or two years more.
„The idea that taxes are primarily an instrument for punitive measures and signaling political orientation is absolute nonsense.“ Why … one can use them in such a way and yes social democrats like tax the rich and liberals like FDP rather the worker.
Sure, in a historic context, taxes were the typical instrument.
It’s true that since the rise of the European Social Democracies, after WW1, proportional taxing of higher incomes was a trademark SD policy, and now watch how those societies developed! Not just economically, but also in terms of internal coherence and democratic strength. That, to my mind, is the realistic – out of the sandbox – perspective.
It was just an example Michael you can also call other games CDU CSU are mainly for the economy VW BMW SIEMENS etc. … but this is not an answer why Marty Bullshit tells, you can’t explain why Marty allegedly tells Bullshit?
Well, Marty’s whole communication only has one direction, which is to engage and manipulate towards bowing down to the extremely primitive and narrowly distorted political premises interpreted by a certain “national” megalomaniac.
That is the exact opposite of anything even remotely distant from the present political sandbox-culture.
His talk about the superior “wisdom”, “sophistication” and the “refinement” of lying and cheating can’t be taken seriously.
The few but contradictory indications as to his own possible but carefully unpronounced position are worth what?.
I really see no point in going along with any of his cheap and biased references and circular argumentation, because the tables have changed completely now, with the current crisis.
The state is headed straight into a debt of proportions not seen since WW1 and Marty is just trying to buy some time in the hours of perdition, hoping, and he knows it.
If I knew why he does it, I would also know how much he should worry about the source and size of his future paychecks.
We were at that sentence „The idea that taxes are primarily an instrument for punitive measures and signaling political orientation is absolute nonsense.“ Why is that nonsense? You don’t have an explanation for it but you write it. Your comment is that of a bullying man.
„ … which is to engage and manipulate towards bowing down to the extremely primitive and narrowly distorted political premises interpreted by a certain “national” megalomaniac.“ Your comment fits the bill.
Don – Forget bullying. Marty is (but he claims to do the opposite) actually campaigning against the opposition. By projecting onto Budapest, the old antiquated stereotypes about voter-behavior, based on the classic propaganda value of selective taxation, as interpreted through the stereotyped right vs. left campaign rhetoric from the old Gyurcsány vs. Orbán controversies. Both are old and backward schools of thought, that rule out any kind of cooperation across the center of the political spectrum, which is supposed to be the long-term aim of the opposition, not a “left” policy as such. When M. says “move towards the opposition” instead of “towards the center”, he contributes to the continuation of that traditional conservative school of thought, by maintaining that votes are always more motivated by smaller personal gains/losses, rather than achieving greater community-wealth. This premise would probably to some degree, still be valid in rural Hungary, and it certainly fits the illiberal agenda. But it’s also a central part of what the opposition seeks to abandon. If he took to the side of the opposition, he would clearly speak against the polarisation, because the support needed for creating a new and broader majority in Budapest will not suddenly jump… Read more »
Marty is campaining against the opposition? This is just an assertion of yours as well as the sentence you cannot explain yourself. That’s why it’s bullying. In your first paragraph much is true about the theory of a modern society unfortunately the current situation in Hungary is different: it is stereotypical for a nation that has been dumbed down for decades. The stereotype is not only to be found in the countryside but also in Budapest. If you write comments you can take a position Marty might think that his thinking is widespread, he’s probably right – that’s my assumption too. Meanwhile, I am convinced that the problem in Hungary is caused by insufficient education from home and school. Marty probably assumes – you have to get along with what you have (human resources). Or do you believe that you can build a democracy with fascists? I don’t, and certainly not with a leader who uses the lowest instincts for his politics and awakens them in others … not because he is so intelligent, no because he is so primitive. Politics as well as the opposition deserve every criticism, if not as a hammer blow on the then at least… Read more »
Marty is campaining against the opposition? This is just an assertion of yours as well as the sentence you cannot explain yourself. That’s why it’s bullying. – In your first paragraph much is true about the theory of a modern society unfortunately the current situation in Hungary is different: it is stereotypical for a nation that has been dumbed down for decades. The stereotype is not only to be found in the countryside but also in Budapest. If you write comments you can take a position Marty might think that his thinking is widespread, he’s probably right – that’s my assumption too. – Meanwhile, I am convinced that the problem in Hungary is caused by insufficient education from home and school. Marty probably assumes – you have to get along with what you have (human resources). Or do you believe that you can build a democracy with fascists? I don’t, and certainly not with a leader who uses the lowest instincts for his politics and awakens them in others … not because he is so intelligent, no because he is so primitive. – Politics as well as the opposition deserve every criticism, if not as a hammer blow on the… Read more »
Marty is campaigning against the opposition? This is just an assertion of yours as well as the sentence you cannot explain yourself. That’s why it’s bullying. In your first paragraph much is true about the theory of a modern society unfortunately the current situation in Hungary is different: it is stereotypical for a nation that has been dumbed down for decades. The stereotype is not only to be found in the countryside but also in Budapest. If you write comments you can take a position Marty might think that his thinking is widespread, he’s probably right – that’s my assumption too. Meanwhile, I am convinced that the problem in Hungary is caused by insufficient education from home and school. Marty probably assumes – you have to get along with what you have (human resources). Or do you believe that you can build a democracy with fascists? I don’t, and certainly not with a leader who uses the lowest instincts for his politics and awakens them in others … not because he is so intelligent, no because he is so primitive. Politics as well as the opposition deserve every criticism, if not as a hammer blow on the head then at… Read more »
Marty is campaigning against the opposition? This is just an assertion of yours as well as the sentence you cannot explain yourself. That’s why it’s bullying. In your first paragraph much is true about the theory of a modern society unfortunately the current situation in Hungary is different: it is stereotypical for a nation that has been dumbed down for decades. The stereotype is not only to be found in the countryside but also in Budapest. If you write comments you can take a position Marty might think that his thinking is widespread, he’s probably right – that’s my assumption too. Meanwhile, I am convinced that the problem in Hungary is caused by insufficient education from home and school. Marty probably assumes – you have to get along with what you have (human resources). Or do you believe that you can build a democracy with r assist? I don’t, and certainly not with a leader who uses the lowest instincts for his politics and awakens them in others … not because he is so intelligent, no because he is so primitive. Politics as well as the opposition deserve every criticism, if not as a hammer blow on the head then… Read more »
But that was not Michael’s answer to my question. In your article you confuse the theory of modern life, which doesn’t exist in Hungary anymore maybe never really existed and the current situation which rather fits the stereotype as Marty describes it. Once upon a time, that’s how your stories start. Of course there are exceptions but too few.
Don, I suppose you rule out the possibility of Hungary ever moving towards a cooperative govt.- opposition relationship and EU-policy?
That only leaves one option for future development – Emigration.
Supposing does not help Michael.
Marty is campaigning against the opposition? This is just an assertion of yours as well as the sentence you cannot explain yourself. That’s why it’s bullying. In your first paragraph much is true about the theory of a modern society unfortunately the current situation in Hungary is different: it is stereotypical for a nation that has been dumbed down for decades. The stereotype is not only to be found in the countryside but also in Budapest. If you write comments you can take a position Marty might think that his thinking is widespread, he’s probably right – that’s my assumption too. Meanwhile, I am convinced that the problem in Hungary is caused by insufficient education from home and school. Marty probably assumes – you have to get along with what you have (human resources). Or do you believe that you can build a democracy with fascists? I don’t, and certainly not with a leader who uses the lowest instincts for his politics and awakens them in others … not because he is so intelligent, no because he is so primitive. Politics as well as the opposition deserve every criticism, if not as a hammer blow on the head then at… Read more »
Michael, there are 8 million voters in Hungary. I recognize that individuals are complex and masses of people are more complex still. But you have to make this population of 8m managable in terms of political decision making/strategizing and the way this happens is that you divide the population into no more than 10 groups (perhaps no more than 6-8) which are relatively homogenous (in certain ways). You simply can’t work with 50 or a 100 micro-populations. So yes people in politics use stereotypes and generalizations. But this method sure worked for Orban or the GOP. You have to make the complex world simplified in a way that is manageble and still useful for political purposes while acknowledging the simplification. I do that.
It might have worked for the American Republicans and for Orbán, but to what good for their people and countries? Cheating and manipulating the media is still a destructive lifestyle. It still remains a prerequisite for a functional democracy, that the local subgroups, which constitute the basis of the broader national organization, either as fractions of parties or as partners inside the state, have to structure and manage themselves locally, within a framework of nationally agreed common principles and guidelines and physical borders, which allow and include local differences. Leaders obtain strength that way, or else we are back to narrow centralized conditions. We know so well from experience that nothing of lasting value is gained from a situation of internal battles for control. A new start perhaps, but not more than that. The old, city vs. country- conflicts of interest will always be there, but both have to develop in order to survive. In the practical execution of the local self-management, it doesn’t really matter much if there are smaller fractions who are different, speak a different dialect, or live under very different conditions, as long as they contribute to the broader decisions on the national level and in… Read more »
Newly arrived in my e-mailbox — although off-topic, perhaps of interest. THE NEW YORKER Letter from Europe How Viktor Orbán Used the Coronavirus to Seize More Power By Elisabeth Zerofsky April 9, 2020 Last Monday, the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, went to the plenary session of the country’s parliament to pass the “Draft Law on Protecting Against Coronavirus.” Two weeks earlier, on March 11th, when the official count of covid-19 cases in Hungary stood at thirteen, and sixty-nine people were in quarantine, the country had declared a state of emergency that banned incoming travel from China, South Korea, Italy, and Iran and limited indoor gatherings to fewer than a hundred people. The new proposal sought to extend the state of emergency, and included a number of new measures that the Prime Minister now deemed necessary: the spread of “distorted truths” or breaking isolation orders would be punishable with prison time; the Prime Minister could suspend any existing laws or create any new ones as desired; and any of these new laws, so long as they were enacted while the emergency was in place, would receive the de-facto approval of parliament. Despite the extreme demands of the bill, even the… Read more »
Thanks Mr. Knisely and Professor Balogh, The post on the economists is useful, not because they (or most readers) believe the Orban regime will change course. Rather, the post by Professor Balogh is a symbol of what a proper response to Covid-19 should be. The additional post by Mr. Knisely is very helpful in putting the failed regime policies in context i.e the preservation of the current mafia regime through further institutionalized authoritarianism. In my opinion, Orban has now clearly restored many if not most features of his hero, Admiral Horthy.
I am watching with eager eyes the gradual erosion of all remaining public capacities in Hungary.
Unfortunately, Hungary has been left with quite an empty hand.
Economic and social stability has been worn down over the past 90 years of mismanagement and the selfishness of the leaders of the past and present.
The present virus pandemic and its consequences will likely bring out the most evil aspects of human nature within the existing population.
I would really hate to go into the details of the forthcoming 12 to 16 months – in either local or global terms…
I am deeply disturbed by what Viktor Orban is doing to democracy in and the economic life of Hungary. His increasingly dictatorial style reminds me of the Communist suppression of freedom.
True John the Orban approach does not differ much from that of the Communist regime. It is pity that Hungary was not able to take up a true democracy when it had the opportunity. It is beyond my comprehension why ordinary Hungarians would support Orban who is full of his and his cronies self interest. I have been to Hungary quite a few times and noticed the deterioration of civil society and on my most recent visit was appalled by the elderly homeless sleeping on the street. With the virus pandemic now with us it is probably too late for a wake-up call for Hungary and it is likely that the country will suffer immensely in health as well as economic terms. I hope not – but with the incompetent Orban Government this is likely.
Ian
Homeless/clochards you can see in many EU countries, but they are hardly indicative of the realities in politics, society and the economy in Hu, which are much much worse. Actually under many repressive regimes homelessness was outlawed and the homeless were hiding, Orbàn banned them from the inner with, but the his offensive fizzled out ..
Spreading of Corona virus per County in Hungary [update acc.official data!]
https://app.flourish.studio/visualisation/1799004
For the whole of Hungary the daily increase back to steady +10% [meaning a doubling time of 7-8 days]
In 10 counties Corona seemed to have taken a day off [+0/+1], for the other counties main developments as follows:
–Budapest* +75 [+13%]
–Fejér* +10 [+14%]
–for Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén, Heves and Nógrád small numbers of new cases of +3/+3/+5, but as there are few official cases this meant big relative increases [+30%/+60%/+42%]
*latest official data for both Budapest and Fejér strongly indicate possible serious hotspot(s)!
–for Budapest it’s clearly the Pesti úti idősek otthon [heavily reported in all media and used by OV&Co to attack Karacsony]
–for Fejér I still haven’t seen any further info, but have understood that OV&Co’s mayor of its capital Székesfehérvár ordered stricter measures during Easter
for why I daily update this chart and how you can use it, see my yesterday’s reply to Don’s question at https://hungarianspectrum.org/2020/04/09/serious-questions-about-orbans-action-plan-part-ii/#comment-187804
Ferenc well maybe there’s something in your work that can be read. Personally, I think it’s propaganda. It’s a little bit like Marty’s arguments just from your side. It’s not a criticism of your work but it’s clearly the same to me. Maybe one time you’re able to look at comments from a distance.
Well Don, if you consider it propaganda and you don’t like that, best you ignore my charts and comments about it.
I just hope it’s helpful to others, to first put the official data better in perspective and second provide an extra handle for checking.
Ferenc I didn’t say I was judging it … what I’m judging is admitting to yourself what you don’t admit to others.
ah, the black E balloon
You mean that bullshit about the balloon?
Don
Why “propaganda”? Any doubtful facts or figures there?
If not then you make no sense.
Observer can you write complete sentences so that your readers understand what you want to say? Some of them would probably be grateful.
But you understood the question, why not answer it?
And I’m trying to be as short as possible, assuming readers know English well.
Observer another question 1 + 1 = 2 or? So when you make a chart out of Probaganda numbers you are not only spreading Probaganda but you are making it yourself. Just like the block warden in the Nazi era who imposed his will on everyone.
Tnx but I guess we better leave it here..
If you didn’t like the answer then it wasn’t me.
Finally someone writes about trust in the government – unfortunately this is typically Hungarian naive again. Professor asks for… what actually… honesty? Totally naive. Whoever expects honesty from the government has probably lived on the moon or on Syrius for the last 10 years amen. Is there a subject called naivety at Hungarian universities or is it interspersed in every subject? It’s an poverty testimony in spirit.
A bit disappointing this letter stating little more than the obvious.
Good as a criticism and as a statement re the desirable direction of gov policies, but I’d expect from well rooted local economists to put some flash on the bones, ie. to offer some specific recommendations even if at the macro level of measure-cost/gov.budget/fonancial-FX-consequences.
The UK government is certainly not leftish yet it has done most of the measures demanded by the Hungarian economists. There are still serious gaps in provision, most of all in funding local government, but so far a sense of solidarity exists. A government that does less than this is not worthy of the name.
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