Last night, about five minutes after I posted my piece on the latest Fidesz attack against the city of Budapest and specifically against Mayor Gergely Karácsony, I read that the mayor, who is a mild-mannered man known and often criticized for his readiness to compromise, at last had had enough. He produced documentary evidence proving that the accusations against him were baseless. It wasn’t the negligence of the city’s management that caused the outbreak of the coronavirus in the large nursing home facilities where 126 older residents were found to be infected.
All told, Karácsony made four “secret documents” available on his Facebook page as well as on the official site of the city. Three of them show that Mayor Karácsony “in vain was asking the head of the government office [Botond Sára], the minister in charge of healthcare [Miklós Kásler], and the chief medical officer [Cecília Müller] to administer coronavirus tests to residents of nursing homes before their release from hospitals.” The fourth, which Karácsony considers to be the weightiest, is a letter from Botond Sára in which he explains the reason for his refusal to honor the request. “Several hospitals have indicated that they take only patients with a negative SARS-CoV-2 test from another institution or hospital. I would like to inform you that this procedure in professional terms is without merit. A negative test simply means that no virus was detectable at the time of the test. Testing can provide a false sense of security and generates unnecessary laboratory tests and costs. Please, do not make the transfer of patients from one facility to the next more cumbersome during the epidemic.”
Botond Sára, former mayor of Budapest District VIII and currently head of the “government office” of Budapest
Botond Sára has a law degree and for a number of years worked for a law firm until, in 2018, he was elected mayor of District VIII. Given his professional background, his information about the efficacy of SARS-CoV-2 testing most likely comes from the Chief Medical Officer, Cecília Müller. I, of course, cannot weigh in on this issue, so let’s see what the World Health Organization has to say on the matter. “Diagnostic testing for COVID-19 virus is critical to tracking the virus, understanding epidemiology, informing case management, and to suppressing transmission.” The document offers guidance to health organizations, pointing out that when the availability of tests is limited, priority should be given to the most vulnerable segments of the population. As we know from examples from all over the world, elderly people with underlying conditions are the most defenseless against COVID-19. The U.S. outbreak began in a nursing home in Washington State, half of all Belgian victims were nursing home residents, and, just today, The New York Times reported that, in the tri-state area (New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut), 2,000 residents of nursing homes have died from the virus.
I don’t know whether more extensive testing would have saved lives in these cases. But, for anyone who follows Cecília Müller’s daily announcements, it is evident that Hungary’s chief medical officer doesn’t believe in the usefulness of testing. Every time she receives a question about the very limited testing in Hungary, she has some explanation for why tests are not really necessary. For example, on March 30, she questioned the accuracy of the tests that were developed under the pressure of the pandemic. Moreover, she claimed that “there is no test that would prevent the spread of the epidemic or have an influence at any level. Testing gives us information only.” Perhaps Dr. Müller didn’t study the WHO documents, which clearly state that testing is critical to “suppressing transmission.”
Müller’s aversion to testing might have two possible explanations. One is that, although they don’t admit it, the Hungarian government doesn’t have enough test kits. For example, it was announced today that, from an unnamed source, Hungary just received 20,000 test kits, 5,000 gloves, and 5.1 million masks. The other reason, which is more insidious, is that Viktor Orbán wants to keep the reported number of affected people low. The fewer cases reported, the better it looks, especially in comparison to countries like the United States, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, France, or Belgium. In any case, according to Worldometers, Hungary to date has performed 3,308 tests per 1 million population, which is the third worst performance in the European Union, ahead only of Romania (3,081) and Bulgaria (2,663).
Let me now turn to a piece of news from Italy that, I believe, has some relevance to the Hungarian government’s failure to test nursing home residents. 444 reported today that, according to La Repubblica, the public prosecutor’s office is investigating the case of the director of a nursing home in Milan on suspicion of murder. Since the outbreak of the pandemic, at least 100 residents of the institution have died. The charge is that the management didn’t follow safety standards and “endangered residents and workers when transporting patients between hospitals and the home without proper control and segregation.” If I were Cecília Müller, I would quickly get off the topic of the limited efficacy of testing.
On Testing (Apologies to those who already know these trivial vérités de lapalisse) The fundamental importance of C19 testing is easily explained: (1) Testing does not cure C19, but it has an enormous influence on treatment, which in turn influences probability of survival (e.g., if the C19-positive members of vulnerable populations are identified, as in the case discussed by Professor Balogh and Mayor Karacsony). (2) Testing is the only way to estimate the prevalence and growth rate of the infection. Without a daily estimate of the ratio of C19 positives to randomly tested samples, the number of positives or of deaths alone are just the sounds of one hand clapping. (3) Unless the growth rate known and everything done to slow it to below the carrying capacity of the available medical facilities, more and more people will die, needlessly. So, again, testing does not cure C19 but it influences how many will survive. (4) The purpose of lockdowns is to try to slow the growth rate below the carrying capacity. If you don’t know it (through testing) you don’t know if you’ve slowed it. You are just putting out forest fires. (And if you exceed carrying capacity, the deaths will… Read more »
Cecilia Mueller is just a moron, whereas Viktor Orban, her master, is a monster. If Hungary had been in the hands of Mayor Karacsony, there would have been hope.
Yeah, she is completely out of her depth. I can imagine she was a good enough family physician for her village, but she’s not a virologist, an epidemiologist, or a mathematician and she should know that she needs to consult with professionals from these fields before making announcements.
Dr. Muller…
Really it is incredible that she is a ‘doktor’. She must have thrown her training out the window. She appears to have moved from the realm of science into a fantasy bubble where the kings of chance who spin their roulette wheels reign.
There is a politician, medical community issue very awry. It is the habit of transforming unwarranted assumptions to foregone conclusions. An understatement to say that this is a dangerous activity. It’s going to kill off the country.
And Magyar data statisticians: could fear the virus so much that they prefer the lie to truth when they do the ‘figuring’. Information with integrity? Leaders have left that train in the station a long while ago. It now belches just smoke.
The hapless C.Müller is just, as so many others, a nobody picked and appointed by Orbàn to serve him without posing any danger to his power. These mediocrities are ready to do any dirty job, they can also be easily disposed of; its the usual puppet show of dictatorships.
Thank you so much for this Éva.
I was on the phone yesterday with a friend and both of us were bemoaning the fact that we are kept in the dark about the developments here.
You seem to be the only source, for many of us, regarding the virus.
The lack of information from the government makes the situation doubly scary.
Is there any information about how many ventilators there are here?
Or are these too going to be a source of profit for one of the Fidesz gang?
Or are they all in storage, in case it is needed exclusively by a Fidesz worthy?
Good to hear that “Hungarian Spectrum” has become an important source of information for some in Hungary.
Thanks to both Professor Balogh (the initial post) and Stevan Harnad (for his comments).
This story is one more reason for all of us to support “Hungarian Spectrum” in not only written and polite dialogue, but through financial donations.
When ever I telephone family and/or friends in Budapest, I am usually well enough informed by “Hungarian Spectrum” that we can have a much conversation. Thank you Professor Balogh.
[…] Source link […]
I was reading on 7th April that 133 thousand tests have already arrived: https://szeged.hu/hirek/34048/koronavirus-eddig-31-millio-maszk-es-133-ezer-teszt-erkezett But we haven’t seen much of an increase in daily tests since then, only about 2000 a day, never more than 2200. Part of the problem is that only some tests are counted since if someone goes to a private clinic and gets tested, it is not counted: https://koronavirus.gov.hu/cikkek/tisztifoorvos-nagyobb-mertekben-nott-fertozottek-es-az-elhunytak-szama For a while I have been believing that the second reason you mention is the true one: it is easier to make the curve look flat by limiting the testing than to actually flatten it. I’m not a virologist or epidemiologist, I’ve just been listening to too many podcasts by virologists for the past month. But based on the number of deaths we have, I expect the true numbers of infections are over a hundred times higher: we have 99 deaths now, and if the death rate is 1% then that means that when they caught the disease a few weeks ago there were already 9900 infections. If it took them about 3 weeks it took them to get sick enough to die, the actual number of infections could have doubled 3 times, so that’s could be… Read more »
@Mouse, 2:38 am
Neat summary. The leadership of the country at the moment, whether political or medical is crass, awful. Sure, limit the testing, who needs more bad news and anyway, we look good and save money at the same time – what’s not good about that?
The horrible truth is that, as in the UK, where dithering and lack of knowledge and guesswork about “herd immunity” (BS) delayed the start of significant testing, the UK is looking at over 10 deaths/100 confirmed positives.
HUNGARY NEEDS TO UNDERSTAND THAT DELAY KILLS!
While “officialdom” dithers and policy remains opaque, people will be dying, for the coronavirus infection waits for no one.
One hates to say it but it seems to be unavoidably true: this regime is contemptuous of its own people and it is they who will bear the brunt of the pandemic in Hungary.
“…. the public prosecutor’s office is investigating the case of the director of a nursing home in Milan on suspicion of murder”
I am also not a virologist but I sure as hell know how Orban’s regime and his scum in the media work.
The Chief Shaman Muller will shut up on the topic of testing for several days.
Then….*out of nowhere* the filth masquerading as journalists in places like Origo.hu will start little snide articles about the incompetence and inefficiency of the heroic staff and health professionals in hospitals and other care institutions.
By the end of the week, Polt will be bringing murder or manslaughter cases against afore-mentioned health professionals pour encourager l’autres.
Of course it won’t be the Fat Dictator’s and his fawning lapdogs’ fault that Hungarians in their 1000s are dying but because of the shameful actions of doctors and nurses and care professionals. Why, some of them have even refused to test suspected cases.
Yes, would fit right in the scheme of things.
However we have already clear cut cases of criminal negligence with the Sàra/Müller criminal omissions to act (on WHO, EU recommendation and data) thus endangering the public health on a large scale (tömeges). She/they would be investigated, charged and most likely sentenced in any rule of law country, alas Hu is not one of those.
Meanwhile, it has been announced (on the FB page of Fidesz, with the picture of minister Szíjjártó) that Hungary will provide thousands of masks, protective clothing and [an unspecified amount of] tests for the trans-border Hungarian communities. (I don’t know how they will be distributed – will the receivers’ Hungarian ethnicity be checked in some way, to exclude Serbs or Romanians…?) Because “every Hungarian is responsible for every Hungarian.” In other words, Orbán is using the pandemic also for his covertly revanchist ethnopolitics.
“In other words, Orbán is using the pandemic also for his covertly revanchist ethnopolitics.”
Politics never stops, all events are political as well. Let’s be realistic, as opposed to mindlessly bashing Orban -“All issues are political issues, and politics itself is a mass of lies, evasions, folly, hatred and schizophrenia” -George Orwell (1941).
The Pope too came out to employ the crisis so as to promote his fashionable new faith in all liberal causes, in this case in climate-change /environmentalism “Fires, earthquakes … that is, nature is having a fit, so that we will take care of nature.” May God have mercy on us and shut him up.
I expect Greta too, if she hasn’t hit puberty meantime, to come out soon with her typical neurotic and angry take.
You’ve proved again that you really are an absolutey stupid a**hole, ovoda!
Many weeks ago Greta wrote on her twitter site that she and her father might have been infected and asked everybody in the FFF movement to stay at home and maybe protest online!
I even reported it on HS because some crazy troll (forgot which creature it was …) was doing similar hateful remarks on her – maybe it was even you, little pervert?
The rest of your comment is as idiotic …
Wolfi
It’s the dumb guy on duty; hope he got the virus and is out of operation for a couple of weeks at least.
Going on again about Greta’s puberty. I think Ovika1G is a bit of pedophile.
The death toll in nursing homes here in Belgium has been quite high indeed (and in France as well from what I learn from French media outlets – nursing homes are called EHPAD in France).
Until recently, testing was limited but as testing kits are now becoming more available, the Belgian authorities have made testing residents (and staff) in nursing home a priority.
A bit off topic but when it comes to Hungarian hospitals, it seems they sometimes (or is it common, we don’t know) lack flexibility: one of my wife’s relative who had to go to the hospital after fracturing a bone couldn’t change hospital for additional treatment but had to go back to the initial one because the other would not accept her on the basis that she had not been treated there from the beginning. Maybe someone can confirm this is common practice in HU?
Paschal Crown of Thorns
Excellent article by Nick Cohen: Timely, terrifying, and all too true — except the gratuitous pessimism, which is useful only for inspiring a self-fulfilling prophecy and hedging bets.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/11/surely-the-link-between-abusing-animals-and-the-worlds-health-is-now-clear
Steve – It’s satisfying to see ideas that have been filtered out of focus in the media, since the late 60s, now surface again.
If some would see some of the pictures from the Wuhan wet markets they would have to have cast iron stomachs. If not it would be difficult to hold off retching. In hindsight common sense looking on the possibilities of the scene really ‘flew the coop’ because apparently adherents didn’t see the danger with carcasses and blood all mixed in a vile pile. And just to think many of those markets exist all over the world. It’s sure amazing what humans get ‘used to’. Fine quip on the science master Planck. He certainly knew as well that many patients in the early days of anesthesia were er…’trailblazers’ to not only medicine but to how can we put it …eternity. Brings us to the consequences of the virus not only to animal welfare but to the globe’s future human-political welfare what with as we have seen opportunist autocrats moving more and more for aggregating more power in a time where the onset of plague destroys the overall existing social fabric of democratic societies. The virus comes at a time when there are great problems existing in the world. We should hope that it will not be the nail in the coffin… Read more »
German foreign minister Maas about our regime: “Anyone who undermines the European Union’s fundamental values should not expect to benefit fully from the Union’s financial advantages.”
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-lead-eu-coronavirus-presidency-says-foreign-minister/a-53098313
Talk, talk, talk and more talk.
you miss the main point here:
Minister Maas is from the Social Democratic Party [SPD], for real action he and we all depend on EPP parties to join in.
In the case of German: CDU & CSU, so mainly Merkel and Seehofer…
i cant wait for that one (after 10 years of empty words and billions into the Orban mafia pockets).
It is not very difficult to work out why Germany will do nothing. It is commercially advantageous to them to maintain and to fund the pariah state. Nothing should be allowed to disturb the status quo since it might blow the euro out of the water. That would bring back the Mark. The German manufacturing industry can sell its produce because the euro is artificially cheap since it is a basket of currencies some of which are junk.
Well, the German foreign minister alone can’t determine the EU policies. It is “just another voice”. But it is the voice of one of the big member states. And don’t forget that it is right now just the second chance to dry out the swamp, bad enough it hasn’t been done in 2013. The argument about the German economy is just incorrect. Whether Orbán will “punish” foreign companies for decisions of their governments is not sure at all. Orbán has shown that he will attack foreign companies that seem not to be important for him by special taxes or regulations as soon as he likes. Right now the ones he loves are in a process of technical changes plus in a sales crises. One wrong decision and they will leave Hungary. Orbán has hardly any knowledge of economy, but so much he should know. And the Euro will not be abolished, just because foreign investors could have bad times in Hungary. The result will be further weakening the Forint, nothing else. Hungary doesn’t even participate in the ERM2 and Orbán never showed any interest in stable exchange rates, whatever he agreed on earlier. It would show how important the Euro… Read more »
Aida – I expect you will see a rise in the seasonal migration of labor out of Hungary. The demand in those countries who are among the first to return to more normal conditions will be very high, at least for a few years to come.
Michael, you’re totally right!
Even with the ongoing restrictions on travel this week already several planes with workers from Poland landed in Germany – we need those people so much or German agriculture will be destroyed and the farmers will go bankrupt.
Look at Maas’s pre-emptive hedging: “fully” (‘a bit might be trimmed off’) and “advantages” (‘you keep getting the dosh but it may not do you as much good’).
The right words are “Do X, Y, Z… independently and externally verifiably, right now, or not a penny more till you do — and onwards to Article 7.)
Sorry, you forget 2 things: Remarks about another state are always done in diplomatic language, between EU member states as well. Like it or not but in diplomatic language it is as harsh as your suggestion among “ordinary people”.
And it is impossible to exclude all advantages. Cohesion funds yes, but duties according the customs union no. Agricultural subsidies yes, but benefits by free flow of goods, services and persons no. There are many other financial benefits the EU offers besides just receiving cash.
Not really OT:
Ou young one who live in the Buda hills jut told us about the effects of O1G’s policies for them.
I’ve already written once that from thei apartment you could see the dense cloud of smog covering Pest, starting nearthe vicinity of the Danube.
Now thanks to the lockdown the air became much better – they could (almost) see the Matra mountains.
They told us that of course O1G couldn’t allow that success to Karacsony etc so that’s why he enforced free parking. Since then with everybody taking their stinking 20 year old environment killer to Bp again the smog is back to “normal”.
People in Bp (at least some of them) are angry as hell after seeing what could be done for the environment.
Now they’re waiting for O1G’s next activities to destroy the opposition “ruling” Bp – he and his loonies just can’t stand it!
Hi Wolfi. not a really serious question, but how does one know that one can almost see something?
Well, they told us they saw some hills in the right direction – but weren’t sure.
Btw they had some really strong words on the Fidesz kind of mafia – told me some stories and were flabbergasted that I knew them already because of HS here.
They also think that the Balaton tourist industry will be an even bigger target for the honchos like Mészáros.
Wolfi
Where are and how many are these people “angry as hell after seeing what could be done with the environment” ? I havent seen or heard any. Actually one can’t hear the word “climate” nowadays.
A nice joke : angry faced Greta T: WTF?! We were supposed to die of climate catastrophe!
Observer, maybe you know the wrong people …
Our young ones and their friends are angry – especially after they had good air for a few days.
Many are probably used to it like the people in Bejing when I was there almost 40 years ago – in January, when the coal dust fires were burning everywhere in the poor districts …
But even in today’s Germany we have massive problems in Stuttgart e g which lies at the bottom of a basin where no wind gets to drive off the fumes.
So now Stuttgart (which has a Green Mayor) has very strict rules for cars – many Diesel engines which are allowed generally in Germany are forbidden to enter on some days.
This corona story is imho really good for Greta and the climate movement because it shows that something can be done!
In the USA what are discussed as nursing homes are technically called long term care facilities. There is without question a logical presumption that many of the patients entering those facilities will not exit alive. I posted on this blog the US CDC guidance for release of Covid 19 victims who were transferred to hospitals and have been lucky enough to have been stabilized in hospital settings. The CDC very clearly indicates in that guidance that it not required that for the return of the patient to the nursing home that the individual does not need to be non-contagious, but treated upon return to the nursing home as contagious and isolated within those facilities supposedly supported by staff with appropriate personal protective gear. Here in the Chicago area, more likely than not a nursing home patient will not survive hospitalization for Covid 19. Our death statistics reflect that very clearly, with the City of Chicago, as of yesterday 195 of 258 Covid related deaths have been among people 60 and above. How many were transfers from nursing homes is not documented in the data. At Stroger Hospital where I was an intake volunteer until last week, numerous ambulances arrived from… Read more »
One of my associates who is a retired US Army medical officer and who is very fatalistic about Covid 19 and seniors’ survival posted this on a blog for retired US Army officers last week:
The term “old man’s friend” is often used when referring to pneumonia that is being seen among older veterans who contract Covid 19. I searched the phrase on Google and it yielded numerous results. The phrase is often attributed to Dr. William Osler, who in the first edition of his book The Principles and Practice of Medicine (1892) termed it the natural end of the old man. Osler himself already died in 1919 from pneumonia at the age of 70 years probably as part of the last great influenza pandemic that is often referred to in news stories.
Istvan(C), you are extremely courageous. We are all yearning (the believers praying) for your survival and health. Your candor as well as your courage are beyond compare. But your voice is needed in HS too; please preserve it. Don’t emulate Hemingway.
Right now I am not volunteering because the medical colleges in and around Chicago graduated their classes early allowing these students to volunteer though the reserve system here until their residencies start. Since they are so young their risk factors are a fraction of mine. They are actually excited about being in the front lines of the fight against Covid 19. In many ways they remind me of young soldiers excited about going into combat. I admit having seen how bad the impact of Covid 19 can be on individuals who are my age, I became intimidated being at Stroger Hospital. Right now, more than EMTs, the City of Chicago needs additional doctors to perform more complex procedures and retired doctors are amazingly doing this. Pretty high risk, retired surgical nurses are doing this too. My wife and her sister want to volunteer to serve in a hospital in Arizona that has high numbers of Native American patients, my wife still has her rehabilitation medicine certifications and her sister is a retired nurse. Both are members of the Seneca tribe. So far I have talked my wife out of it as have our two daughters, and she has volunteered to… Read more »
Istvan…stunned to hear of a stat where blacks make a great disproportionate share(at least 70%) of virus deaths compared to their representation in Chicago’s population. That is a stunning amount. The virus is decimating that community. For them they are going through an agonizing Gethsemane.
Re: ‘the Hungarian elites….can have private duty nurses assigned for their care…..’
And more F Scott….great writer on the gazdagok!..👍 (rich)
And if they have ‘mind’ to go to certain ‘clinic’..
‘We’re a rich person’s clinic-we don’t use the word nonsense’..
‘Tender is the Night’
And another one….Fitz was one to add in the Soviets..😎
‘Money and power were falling into the hands of people in comparison with whom the leader of the village Soviet would be a gold mine for judgment and culture’. … ‘Echoes of the Jazz Age’
‘
Well we are going to try a zoom Easter dinner shortly, hopefully the software works. The data for African Americans and Covid 19 is really a nightmare, and I would say deeply disturbing to Mayor Lightfoot of Chicago. She is a tiny woman and a lesbian, but I guess those two factors have made her sort of a steeled character in the face of this nightmare.
In order address these many issues for that community Chicago would need to launch its own Marshall plan, and because of the political corruption in that community it would also be difficult to keep programs and plans from being pilfered via Fidesz type tactics. But really there is no money to even consider doing this and it is highly unlikely President Trump is going to write any checks to help a poor Black community where he likely got two votes in the last election, most likely from people who checked the wrong box on the ballot.
The good news this Easter is our Covid death number for Chicago was only 19 people, on April 11 the number of dead from Covid was 46 people. In this grim situation I can be thankful for that.
“political corruption in that community”
“highly unlikely President Trump is going to write any checks to help a poor Black community where he likely got two votes in the last election”
isn’t that second also political corruption?
not helping others in need, because they won’t give votes in return, is WHAT?
i.e.isn’t the whole USA political system corrupt to the bone? and almost a parody of a democracy?
Why are Hungarian authorities loath to test for COVID-19? If you dig around in Orban’s head you will quickly find an argument. If I don’t test, the pandemic is never over. Sounds pretty stupid so a second thought – he’s saving money. Sounds pretty stupid too, what else could it be … the sooner everyone falls ill with covid-19 the sooner Hungary is fit again the dead play no role. But if you do not measure then you do not know when it is over. So only the first two thoughts come into question? Or does anyone else have another idea?
This has been tried by Cummings/Johnson in the U.K. and may yet return. As you all know, flabby hands Johnson, when he was told, he discovered the country had been caught unprepared as usual. Reminder: the first prototype Lancaster bomber so crucial to WW2 in the air did not arrive until September 1941. No equipment for mess testing, not even any for hospital and other health workers. No PPE at all then. They immediately invented the concept of “herd immunity”. Normally, this might work, up to a point, in that at the cost of wiping out the most vulnerable ( Tory concept: survival of the fittest), the bulk of the population infected might survive and be immune to re infection. After a few days this was killed off by the old Tory loyalists and the non government doctors who pointed out that since nothing was, and still now, known about the virus the “herd immunity” was a non starter. That was then. In the U.K. there are 1000 new deaths a day, currently. If, as is likely the shutdown will not produce a permanent solution “herd immunity” redrawn, as a solution will be back on the table. But, accompanied by… Read more »
We have to wait a year for the vaccination if we are lucky. It is also not known how long you will be immune is it one year shorter or longer. It is also unknown how fast the virus mutates that it mutates is undisputed. There are virologists who say it could be like the influenza that the virus comes back every year. The US has genius Trump who made the virus great America first again. And we have Orban …
OV is known for wanting to know maximum what’s going on in Hungarian society, but keeping that knowledge for himself only. The best example in this is their [OV’s GONGO’s] secret polling and selective publication of manipulated, better called fake, results.
In the current Corona case, I see two options:
1.not sufficient testing, because of physically the limited availability of tests themselves and/or staff to execute the tests.
explanation for this would be that OV simply underestimated Corona, which corresponds with his beheaviour earlier on
2.sufficient tests and staff available, but test results are not fully published [similar like OV’s secret polling]
explanation for this would be that OV ordered full preparations for an pidemic, but in his typical style wants to use their secret knowledge against others [all those not fully agreeing with him]
as example for 2 I point to the happenings around the Pesti uti retirement/nursing home and OV’s attacks on mayor Karacsony
Which of the above options is the case, I honestly don’t know, but also I even don’t rule out a combination of both!
You have one good point Orban is a control freak. Therefore I am surprised that they don’t test in Hungary. I don’t know or have never heard of any person being tested. People in quarantine are often heard.
Don, the answer is very simple. It is the same as with flabby handed Johnson: no test kits and no experts who can use them.
Without extensive testing no chance of ending the emergency permanently. Even with it there are doubts.
We don’t know if any vaccine can be made to work. The obvious problems are: 1. Reinfection post vaccination and 2. Mutation rapidly making the vaccine ineffective until a new vaccine catches up. Even in the case of 2 where you have rapid new vaccine development you may not have eliminated 1.
So, without mess testing, you will not know if the vaccine is truly effective because currently not every infected person exhibits symptoms. So, for obvious reasons testing is crucial. Save, of course that there is no test for antibody is in the pipeline. Even with effective antibody test kits you need to test and retest for reinfection.
Without the ability of those now laid off being able to return to work soon there is a danger of an economic catastrophe never before witnessed. That might have many more victims than the virus. But, that is not the choice having either or, because we might have both.
“there is no test for antibody is in the pipeline.”
afaik there are serious works going on at several places to have this available soon
note: this will be a blood test, as the antibodies will be mainly [or only?] in our blood, or not…
Yes Ferenc, they are trying to develop some, but so far no luck. Without getting one, the vaccine, even if an effective one is found, will have very limited utility because of reinfections. Given luck, the problem remains whilst there is no answer to the mutation puzzle. My view is that we are in a very serious situation, globally. If Covid19 has a huge propensity to reinfection and an exponential mutation trend neither flabby wrists Johnson’s “herd immunity”, nor a vaccine will achieve sufficient stability until virtually all the highly vulnerable are dead or safely interned. Even then, the mutations problems may cause upsets.
Don – It could be as simple as – “There can only be one truth at a time, and it must be my truth. Otherwise people will think I am weak.
I heard something like that… I’m afraid to say it was Marty.
In between preparations and consumption of Easter dishes found time to update:
Spreading of Corona virus per County in Hungary [acc.official data!]
https://app.flourish.studio/visualisation/1799004
For the whole of Hungary the daily increase back to steady +8% [meaning a doubling time of 9-10 days]
Main changes were in:
–Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén: +31 [+239%!!]
–Győr-Moson-Sopron: +16 [+36%]
–Fejér: +11 [+13%]
For BAZ the increase seems to come mainly from a retirement/nursing home in Borsodnádasd
see https://index.hu/belfold/2020/04/11/borsodnadasd_idosotthon_fele_koronavirus_fertozott_polgarmester_allitja/ – incl.link to the [OV&Co] mayor’s FB post
one of the best comments to that FB post:
Nagyon korrekt! A tisztifőorvosnak is így kellene!
Really correct! The Chief Medical Officer [Frau Müller] should do the same!
As mentioned Fejér Megye shows the biggest steady increase, actually since Apr.06 till now [daily +21%, meaning a doubling time of 3-4 days].
So I searched what could be the reason for this, so far unsuccessful.
But there was one very strange development yesterday: the director of Fejér’s main hospital [in Székesfehérvár] had, on instigation of the EMMI ministry, resign from his post.
And what was EMMI’s reasoning for this?
EMMI: “serious omission related to the Corona virus epidemic [“súlyos mulasztás”]”
No further details from EMMI, but the [former] director gave statements and an interview with RTL Klub, in which became clear that the “reason” was a small administrative delay in giving data.
This is so typical for the operation of CEE authorities [have enough experience with that!]: small irrelevant things are pumped up to “real explanations”, all done to cover up the real reasons behind certain decisions.
Sources:
https://merce.hu/2020/04/11/kasler-mikos-utasitasara-tavoznia-kel-a-fejer-megyei-korhaz-foigazgatojanak/
https://rtl.hu/rtlklub/hirek/konnyezve-bucsuztak-kollegai-a-foigazgatotol [video with interview]
PS: unfortunately Hungarian journalists hardly ever ask more than the obvious, so in RTL Klub’s interview, the director is not asked to reveal the real reason for his resignation!
Now this made me really start thinking: what, especially under the current Corona circumstances, could be the real reason?
Checking my data made very clear that Fejér shows very different [stronger!] increase compared to the other counties.
This could be explained by two things:
1.hotspots somewhere in Fejér
2.more testing than elsewhere
About 1 haven’t found any info, so 2 remains as most likely explanation.
Combining this with the demanded and Corona related resignation, my very strong suspicion is that the [former] director did much more tests than he was allowed by OV’s central authorities!
https://index.hu/belfold/2020/04/11/kirugott_korhazigazgato_egy_ilyen_hiba_barhol_elofordul/
According to the (former) Director: “egy esetben elcsúszott az elektronikus adatszolgáltatással, emiatt szűnt meg végül a munkaviszonya a kórházzal” = “in one case there was a delay in providing electronic data and this was why he was fired from the hospital”…
Must be something more in the background, as you say.
Also with regard to Fejér megye, when the good weather came along about a week or 10 days ago there were lots of photos on facebook of people sunbathing at Velence-tó, with a lot of angry comments about how selfish they are/were. This might have contributed to the increase?
“people sunbathing at Velence-tó”
could be an explanation, but then around the lake should be hotspot(s) for Corona infections, haven’t seen anything like that reported in any media [also not in local Fejér megyei, but note these are most likely under OV’s control]
Suppressing the number of tests could actually be a bad move in propaganda as well as public health terms.
Keeping the number of tests low produces low infection figures. However it also makes the mortality to case ratio in Hungary look worse than it may actually be. On government figures it presently stands at 7% -more than double the WHO average worldwide stat of 3.4%.
Hungarian hospitals are bad but surely not THAT bad? It could be in the government’s, as well as the public’s, interest to up the number of tests.
Frau Varga [supposedly responsible for justice in Hungary] has given an interview to Die Welt [German daily paper published by Axel Springer* SE], written by Boris Kálnoky [think he’s been “mentioned” here before]
see https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article207175133/Judit-Varga-Ungarn-tut-nur-das-was-alle-in-Europa-tun.html
The title: “Ungarn tut nur das, was alle in Europa tun”
“Hungary does only that, what all in Europe are doing”
For this quote we can of course start the game “Spot the Differences”, but be warned that will never end as the number of differences is endless!
*Axel Springer together with the Swiss Ringier sold in 2014 the main part of their Hungarian portfolio to MediaWorks
Ferenc, that article by Kálnoky is really scathing imho – Varga and O1G’s regime in general doesn’t appear in a good light.
PS:
The Springer Verlag has come a long way – 50 years ago they were kind of fascist, especially the Bildzeitung, which was accused of calling for the death of those demonstrating students. Rudi Dutschke was one of their victims.
Some gallows humour:
The discussion on vaccines, immunity etc reminds me of an old joke. Two planets are talking.
How’s it going?
Answer:
Not so good, I have humans …
Says the first:
Don’t worry, in a million years they’ll be gone!
DAY 13 OF THE DYSTOPIAN DICTATORSHIP ON THE DANUBE.
And yes, the 5th day in succession the One-Party-State-“public”-Media M1 Hirado [“news”] had an item in their “news” broadcasts about Soros Gyorgy.
This time the title is: “Soros Gyorgy also attacked the OTP Bank”
Basically it’s about that Soros in the past [1994, 1997, 2008] wanted to buy shares/stocks of the OTP Bank. Afaik buying shares/stocks isn’t attacking, but investing in and/or giving support to a company/bank.
Here’s youtube image of the 1PS”p”M “news” item
Somebody can press charges against this “public media” bullshiting?
Valaki tud feljelentést tenni ebben a “közmedia” szarakodásban?
Is Soros and NGOs (and a couple of Euro pols) started systematically suing the Hu state and its media for libel and defamation in US courts we’d have had a different PR situation now. (US courts exercise extraterritorial jurisdiction to where US citizens or entities reside and the US gov enforces court rulings by freezing assets, issuing arrest warrants, requesting extradition, etc)
-US courts exercise extraterritorial jurisdiction
No court can exercise “extraterritorial jurisdiction”, it is a contradiction in terms, it conflicts the principle of national/state sovereignty over its national territory.
The US courts pretend being able to do so, albeit is is a juridical nonsense like the “square circle”, but they can force the US govt. to take action against other states, and thus get into a conflict with them, regardless of the opinions/reasons of the democratically elected American representatives/politicians/ about what should be the best foreign policy/actions.
It is just a masquerade where conflicts between sovereign states (implicitly political issues) are deceptively framed as juridical&police issues.
Ovika your ignorance is such that I believe this post must have been composed by some off duty Easter holiday cover from your propaganda ministry.
Extra territorial jurisdiction can exist both in criminal and in civil matters. It is a huge topic.
The ability of national courts to exercise extra territorial jurisdiction may spring from a variety of sources. The commonest is domestic law. Also contracts may confer jurisdiction expressly on one or more national court. Likewise, international treaties may do so. Sovereign immunity may stop a national court exercising jurisdiction whether or not it is extra territorial.
Even without domestic law expressly conferring such jurisdiction it might arise very simply, in a criminal matter, by how the offence is defined by the domestic law as to where it is deemed to have taken place.
I really don’t think George Soros needs your propaganda ministry’s half baked input on this, or for that matter any other such topic.
Another topic our óvoda demonstrated with great success that he has no knowledge about. Go back into kindergarten and start learning!
April 13, morning.
Countries with around 110 deaths [98 … 128], and their
death rate := deaths/[confirmed infected]; tests per million people :
0.98% Israel = 110/11235; 13557
1.41% Japan = 102/7255; 612
1.96% Norway = 128/6525; 23332
3.92% Colombia = 109/2776; 821
4.64% Greece = 98/2114; 4055
7.10% Morocco = 118/1661; 243
7.48% Hungary = 109/1458; 3604
Tnx for the effort, but readers should know that the definitions/registration criteria vary even within the EU.
More significantly, the Orbàn and other such regimes refract everything through their propaganda lenses where the figures are doctored to suit that agenda, eg. “we are doing best/better”,
In Hu we had already “first country to isolate the virus” “the largest stock of medicine” ” the most modern hospital ..built in record time”
No matter what others do, Hungary makes it better.