In order to balance the lopsided picture that some of Hungarian Spectrum’s commenters have painted regarding the influence of the likely victory of the Biden-Harris ticket on the political landscape of East-Central Europe, let me turn to an interview with János Avar, which appeared in Hírklikk yesterday. Avar spent the years between 1989 and 1993 in Washington, as Magyar Nemzet’s foreign correspondent. Since 1969 he has written 12 books, all on the United States, starting with Nixon a Fehér Házban (1969) and ending in 2016 with Hillary: Az elveszett elnökség. He devoted books to the American electoral system and the Kissinger years, and he wrote twice on Ronald Reagan. So, no one can say that Avar doesn’t know what he is talking about.
In the last few months, Avar has written several commentaries on the presidential campaign and early on predicted a Biden victory, way before the former vice-president’s national numbers opened up to a double-digit advantage. As opposed to our resident pessimist, Avar sees a Biden victory as an important event with likely consequences for the future of the East-Central European regimes that during the last four years received material and moral support from Donald Trump’s White House. The political change in Washington will not only make a palpable difference in their unilateral relations. Once the “Brussels bureaucrats” know that Orbán and Kaczyński no longer have the support of the president of the United States, they will be more confident in handling the rogue states in the EU’s midst.
Many people are convinced that since the Obama administration neglected the East-Central European region, we can expect a similar strategy from a new Democratic administration. I think that the people who were involved in foreign affairs in those days are only too aware that their benign neglect was a colossal mistake. By now, they know that the policy nicknamed the U.S.-Russian rewind was a huge misstep, which encouraged Russian expansion in the region that Putin considers to be the Russian sphere of influence. Washington and Brussels were confronted with a Hungarian pocket dictator who was the best friend of China and Russia, two countries even Trump considers threats to the United States. I very much doubt that the United States will make a second major mistake in East-Central Europe.
And Avar is not the lone cheerleader who believes that a Biden victory will be a serious blow to Viktor Orbán. A day after Avar’s interview, The Guardian published an opinion piece co-authored by Shaun Walker and Tom Phillips, with additional reporting from Guardian reporters in Mexico City, Madrid, and Rio de Janiero. I should add that Shaun Walker is the Guardian’s Central and East European correspondent. He is an expert on Russia. Walker, writing specifically about Viktor Orbán, thinks that for him and his kind the biggest draw of a second Trump term would be “the immeasurable psychological benefit of having a politician like Trump occupying the world’s most important office. If Biden wins, it may be taken as a sign that the populist moment is over.”
Photo by Manuel Balce Ceneta / AP
Moving on to Warsaw, Trump has been the idol of the politicians of the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party. Who can forget President Andrzej Duda’s visit to Washington for an endorsement from Trump? Far more outlandish, a PiS member of parliament compared Trump to John Paul II and wrote on Twitter: “Polish people will support you on November 3rd.” In the same region, Orbán’s friend Janez Janša, prime minister of Slovenia, is so enamored with Donald Trump that, after watching the Trump-Biden debate, he declared Trump “the big winner.” One by one, the article lists all the European and Latin American admirers of Trump’s far-right agenda.
Péter Krekó, director of Political Capital, a Budapest think tank, explains Orbán’s thinking in these terms: “If Trump is on my side, then nobody can call me a leader who is excluded from the foreign policy community.”
Let me add a few comments which will reinforce the judgment of János Avar and the reporters of The Guardian. Not only will Orbán’s U.S. supporter most likely be gone as of January 2021, but Orbán is sensing an erosion of his domestic support as a result of the 2019 municipal elections, and yes, also because of the relatively slim margin of victory in the by-election in Borsod.
The first signs of a defensive posture by Fidesz are fairly obvious. First, we learned that Máté Kocsis, the extremely effective leader of the Fidesz parliamentary delegation, will not run in District VI and will be replaced by Botond Sára, who was easily defeated by András Pikó as mayor of Józsefváros. A day or two later, we heard that Gergely Gulyás will not run in the electoral District III. Instead, the honey-tongued Balázs Fürjes will attempt to capture the seat. Finally, we learned that Mihály Varga, the finance minister, is going to be replaced by Csaba Gór, a lawyer. As the papers correctly point out, Orbán is trying to save his most important men from likely defeat in a one-on-one confrontation with the united opposition. Already in 2018 these seats were threatened when the opposition was still divided. With a united opposition, Fidesz thinking is that these seats would be lost.
Index noted that the decision to withdraw these seriously threatened Fidesz bigwigs is perfectly understandable, but one could question the wisdom of announcing these decisions so early, which could be interpreted as an admission by Fidesz of its weakening position. These announcements should strengthen the opposition’s resolve that the road on which they have embarked is effective and should boost their confidence that they can actually unseat the Orbán government.
Sorry to start off with an entirely different topic but I just saw a video about a young Catholic priest from Nigeria who was requested to serve in Hungary. He has been in Hungary for six years and speaks Hungarian well. He is truly delightful. Here is a short video about him by Telex.
https://telex.hu/video/2020/10/18/nigeria-pap-bekescsaba-plebania-templom-hit
Thank you for that Éva!! As you say, he is truly delightful.
So good to see some positive things happening in Hungary.
Finally a post/video of something positive happening in Hungary. It would be nice to read more detailed similar blogs.
Wow. Would love to meet and have a chat with him in the town. His outgoing personality is perfect for ‘serving’ a community. Bit surprised in how much I understood virtually most of everything he said. It was really enjoyable listening to him speak the beautiful language so well.
The priest should be happy he has the African priest. He looked kind of a dour fellow.
He’s very szimpatikus and his command of Hungarian is remarkable! (Could there be some phonetic or syntactic affinity between Magyar and Yoruba or Hausa? Not by linguistic relatedness but just a few happy parameter-settings?)
Végre valami pozitív post. Szívesen olvasnék bővebben hasonló post-okat
Eva not being a Catholic might be unaware of the growth of African born priests taking over parishes around the world, here is a link relating to the USA https://africans-in-america.com/2019/07/13/african-priests-now-future-of-catholic-church-in-united-states/ . Here in Chicago there are African born priests and sisters. Overall in the USA there were as of six years ago more than 1,000 U.S. Catholic priests who were born in Africa. More than 600 were Nigerian and many are Kenyan. I have no doubt that number may be double that today. The truth is priests and sisters who come to the USA and other western nations from a third-world country enjoy a lifestyle as a priest or sister which most of us would consider to be pretty modest, but its a lifestyle which is beyond what they would have ever dreamed of in their own country. The fact that a member of the clergy in the USA can retire and be supported by the church would be a amazing thing for an African where such social welfare systems are weak. The African born Catholic clergy I have met here in Chicago are deeply devout and traditional in particular about issues like gay marriage and abortion rights. The ones I… Read more »
Re: ‘The racism in Hungary which is not limited to Catholics obviously creates limits on the use and importation of these Catholic clergy in Hungary alone with the obscurity of the Hungarian language’. When Francis looks at the country he must shake his head at what he sees which is upholding a grave wrong. In looking back on his early Jesuit career he believed he did wrong by being a ‘bad Jesuit provincial’ when confronting the issues of liberation theology in the 70’s. He did not agree with those who would challenge the government directly and as a result did some heavy handed tactics by dismissing them from the order when he told them to get out of the slums in their ministry. This brought much angst to him and other Jesuits in the order. It cut him to his core. ‘The Future of the Catholic Church with Pope Francis’, Garry Willis. At this point Francis noted that his life from then on was to atone for that mistake and now as Pope he devotes himself to the poor. It is part of his great social conscience that he is known for today. Something the clergy in the country could… Read more »
I have to shudder just reading “Jesuits” – about one of the most horrible pedophile gangs in the world! They sent their pedo members to Alaska because they knew the Inuits would not call the police, just google it. Even wiki has it:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sexual_abuse_scandal_in_the_Society_of_Jesus
Understatement that they like others have gone wayward. Religious canker sores alright. Evil always busy burrowing.
No, I’m aware of the Catholic revival in Africa. What bothers me is that the Orbán government pours billions into churches which have to import priests from Africa. It doesn’t make sense to me.
Orban probably thinks it’s worth every penny.
It’s a group of loyal voters (a significant constituency of 5-15%, the really religious voters) and its a national power network which now disposes over hundreds of billions of HUF per year.
Also, it’s ideology. Not everyone who goes to parochial school (by the way that’s half of the kids in gymnsiums in rural places) will be fidesznik but they sure will be more open to conservative ideologies.
So, since money is never an issue for Orban who has long term strategies and executes those strategies no matter the cost, Orban will continues to pour any and all amounts into the churches’ pockets knowing that the churches will have a vested interest to support him; and they do support him.
It’s pretty logical also from the point of view of simple political calculus: Orban has a few core constituenceis and the religious folks are one big group. One would expect them to be the beneficary of the regime (they do have to feel that Orban is treating the special) and that’s the case.
It’s perfectly logical from Orban’s point of view.
Orbán can pure as much money into churches as he wants, he won’t make us neither religious (7.5% attend services at any regular basis, self defining as christian believers are about the same share as in Austria, Germany or Luxembourg), nor makes young men going to become priest.
Great article, Eva. Assuming a Trump win now is premature, but we hope polls are right this time, and this wishful thinking becomes reality. A Biden victory must be substantial, to exclude Trump’s denial and a consequent upheaval and unrest. Having said that, this is not only the tragedy of the US, but the whole world, that the greatest country (economy, army) has to chose between a megalomaniac corrupt idiot on one side, and an even older senile corrupt clown on the other. While both are totally inept and incompetent, and should not even be able to run, we have to say Biden is much better for Hungary (not Orban), and much less of a bad thing for the US and the world. Simply because after a second Trump term democracy could be in permanent danger. If Biden wins now we can still hope he can restore what is damaged, including the US’ status in the world. And we must hope that Harris, who is soon expected to become president if their ticket wins, is not as much a communist as they say she is. What a shame. Where is a Kennedy? Where is a young Clinton? (Not Hillary, the… Read more »
Nothing inept or incompetent about Joe Biden, he’s a great candidate and will make an excellent President.
Except sometimes he forgets where he is or the office he runs for. He has said twice he is is proud to run for the senate. And he forgot the name of his opponent in a former presidential run. That is not a sign of competence.
He can’t be worse then Trump. The sad thing is; many voters will not vote for Biden per se but rather against Trump.
Exactly and therefore it is a mistake to be worried about Biden’s age or his competence. The majority of Americans want this clown out of the White House.
Biden’s verbal missteps are a way of coping with the stutter he has throughout his life, not a sign of his intelligence.
To understand this better,I highly recommend this excellent and compassionate article that explains it in full by an author who’s a stutterer himself. It’s long but highly worthwhile: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/01/joe-biden-stutter-profile/602401/
Joe Biden for all his problems is rational and given the incredible power of the President to launch nuclear weapons in particular I want Trump out as fast as is possible.
Every US General Trump brought into his administration he forced out and attacked viscously, with the exception of the criminal traitor Lt General Flynn who Trump cries over endlessly.
There has been enough leaks from these purged Generals who have worked with Trump at the highest levels and who are like myself life long Republicans to show Trump is a very mentally ill man who should not be carrying the gold code 24 hours seven days a week to launch a nuclear holocaust on the world.
Guess we have to take things in order. Dump Trump. Biden and Congress will then have the difficult and hard work of getting America back in the game. We’ll see if the mighty Lincoln house that’s been divided can be hooked up again to be at least somewhat workable.
But it could perhaps be made more discombobulating just as before if Trump and co’s ‘revenge’ politics gets to be America’s hangnail. They aren’t exactly the ‘good losers’.
Better for Trump to get complimentary travel tix to hang out in some god-forsaken archipelago where he can be king in his kingdom and eat all his gold to his heart’s content.
Yes, without the conservative generals showing who Trump is, the world would not have recognized this.
Istvan,
you’re pea-minded: do you really think that the military have left the launch codes with dumbo? Trump doesn’t have them or want them.
In years to come, we’ll find greater coordination between the military of Russia, US, and China than we dreamed about…
You are correct. I also had a speech impediment, let alone what used to be called “minimal brain dysfunction”
Compensation is our natural gift to over come and/or manage such. The article cited is excellent as per your comment.
Don’t worry, I “forget” also, but at age 73.I still climbed 3rd highest mountain in Oregon this summer, 10,358 feet (3,158 m). Trump could not manage a bike, let alone a run.
And KH a “communist”? (What on earth has this “Daniel” been reading? He doesn’t sound like a Breitbart afficionado…)
Stevan, please. Where did I say she is a communist? I said she is being accused of being a communist and I hope she is going to prove it is not true. This is what I said.
Agreed. At age 73, I have one task in USA, which is to to do everything I can to get Trump out of White House. I have only had one presidential campaign post on my cars prior to Biden
(Obama).Now I can say two! I have never donated as much $$ to a presidential candidate as I have to Biden.
Daniel
Throwing adjectives around doesn’t win you points, eg. check out the meaning of “communist” and the facts about the communist dictatorships.
Don’t know why JB is “senile”, but in my book an honest and humane elderly guy wins hands down vs a malicious, crooked maniacal old imbecile.
Daniel- Stevan Harnad is correct about Senator Harris i.e she is not a communist. I spent many years visiting family in communist Hungary and my father came from USSR, let alone I studied a great about communism. She is not even a socialist, rather a so called left wing liberal.
I did not say she is a communist – I said I hope she is not as they say she is. She is being accused of being one – this is what I said. Also, I did not say Biden is not better than T. I say the opposite and that I hope he wins big to avoid unrest. I just do not think he is the best candidate from the Dem side, to say the least. At this point anyone would be better than T.
Agree on both fronts, Observer. I did not say she is a communist (no idea). I said she is being accused of being a communist, and I hope she proves it is not true. Also, as I said in my comment, I think Biden is better for several reasons. But a ‘ honest and human elderly guy’ does not necessarily make a good president. ‘Better’ does not mean ‘good’, and ‘better’ certainly does not mean the ‘best’. You really think Biden is the best candidate in a country of some 350 million people? The concern is that T might win again, just because the dems chose the wrong opponent for him, just like they did 4 years ago. Almost any of the other finalists would have won 4 years ago against T, just like almost any of the democratic finalists would win hands down now against this crazy guy. Let’s hope Biden wins with a landslide too, but he is for sure not the best candidate against an aggressive liar. Trump throws around lies and exaggerations in every sentence. You need the sharpest, the quickest, which Biden is not.
Excellent analysis and nice tie-in to the Hungarian elections there in the end.
“Máté Kocsis, the extremely effective leader of the Fidesz parliamentary delegation, will not run in District VI and will be replaced by Botond Sára, who was easily defeated by András Pikó as mayor of Józsefváros.”
Piko defeated Sara in 2019 by a threadbare 269 votes, or 1.18% of the total, in a district election with fairly low turnout (40%). i would submit that “easily” is not the right adverb to use here.
Piko’s victory probably had more to do with public resentment over police harassment of him and his campaign workers than any policy proposals.
Let’s also not forget that Sara clobbered the united opposition’s candidate, the exceptionally inept Peter Gyori, in the by-election for Jozsefvaros mayor in July 2018, 63% to 36%.
Point is, Sara is not a man whose political prospects can be so easily dismissed.
While we are at it…
I don’t know why the weird Kocsis is “extremely effective”, if only for the fact that the Fid MPs don’t do anything in parliament, but read out the propaganda panels and scripts and rubber stamp whatever is put in front of them.
Eva wrote “extremely effective,” not me. Hence the quote marks.
Pikó’s win, quite independently from the numbers, was impressive. A journalist against a politician who received all the help at the Orbán machine’s disposal. As for Kocsis. He is an articulate and brutal representative of the Orbán gang.
Nice one, though I don’t believe that the populist moment will be over any time soon. Populist leaders will simply go back to what they’re best at, being uncooperative, stirring up resentment among conservative-minded voters and blocking as much meaningful legislation as they can, as Orbán did between 2002 and 2010. And it got him back into power, of course.
Orban also did burn Budapest to the ground at 2006 led a failed coup and established a racist paramilitary group Magyar Gárda (with his kapos)
Let’s keep our expectations. I would love to a Blue Tsunami, but the electoral college makes that uncertain.
The Electoral College is not what prevented a blue tsunami in 2016, and it won’t in 2020 either. What prevented the blue tsunami last time was: Trump won 30.25 of 51 jurisdictions (the 0.25 is the second congressional district of Maine, the 51st jurisdiction is DC). Clinton was so incompetent that she could only beat a lunatic like Trump by 2.1% of the popular vote – hardly a “tsunami” under any interpretation. Had Clinton lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College, I have little doubt that Democrats would be praising our Founding Fathers for having had the foresight to devise such an ingenious voting system. But since the Dems didn’t get the president they wanted, they are clamoring to amend the Constitution, get rid of the Electoral College and even even abolish the Senate. “If I can’t win, I’m going to take my toys and go home,” is the motto. I think Biden is more or less unbeatable at this point, but if he wins, they are going to be wheeling him into the Oval Office on a gurney and building a special wing to the White House where he can store his Depends. This election is a… Read more »
Well I am glad you are so confident in a Biden victory Alex, I am still to be honest scared shitless Trump will pull this off. I went to Janesville Wisconsin to support US Army military veterans who are opposing Trump just last weekend. We had several hundred military veteran opponents, some of us dressed in our old combat fatigues. There were literally thousands of Trump supporters there including many fanatical right wing veterans.
The police keep us apart and it was not a pretty picture to be honest. I got in a screaming match with a Tump supporting Vietnam veteran, which was stupid to be honest, and very difficult for me since we obviously shared that experience of the Vietnam war and have a bond based on service and sacrifice.
I was interviewed by one reporter from Rockford Illinois opposing the Trump rally who was writing a story about those of us who crossed into Wisconsin for the rally from Illinois but was not mentioned by name. It was a terrible article that attempted to be balanced and used the angle, Trump brings passion with him to Janesville. I would call it fanaticism, not passion by the way.
For Hungarians who have never seen a Trump rally here is a link to Trump’s 90 minute rambling speech given in Janesville over the weekend https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNnJrl07OTw The opponents to Trump were kept far away from the rally by police, which to be honest was wise, we would have been attacked else wise. It should be noted that while his supporters seated behind him were wearing masks, most of those in front of him were not consistently wearing masks, even though Wisconsin is experiencing a Covid outbreak that is very significant.
A surprisingly narrow view of the stakes of the coming election. Clinton wasn’t as evil as you make her out of. She was not likable. I voted for her but I didn’t like her. Her 3 million extra votes are nothing to sneeze at either. Yes, I would be glad to abolish the electoral system because I’m getting tired of my vote worth nothing under the present system.
One more thing, no sane person wants to abolish the senate.
With due respect, Eva, I read about Democrats who want to abolish the Senate all the time. Why should Wyoming and Alaska get the same number of Senate votes as California and New York? (Notice how they never mention Delaware or Vermont.) As far as Clinton being “evil,” you are putting words in my mouth. I never said she was “evil.” I said she was “incompetent.” Her “basket of deplorables” comment quite possibly cost her Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and the election. Here is what rural Pennsylvania voters heard from Democrats in 2016: “You are racist, sexist, homophobic, intolerable and you suck. And by the way, you’re stupid. We’re going to change the tax laws so that your children will not be able to keep the farm your family has owned since 1716. You will have to sell it to our donors in Archer Daniels Midland before you die. Now vote for me — or I am going to humiliate you personally on Twitter!” I would gladly have voted for Biden if his vice-presidential candidate had been Susan Rice, Amy Klobuchar, Catherine Cortez Masto or even Condoleezza Rice. Instead, he chose Kamala Harris, the worst vice-presidential pick since Sarah Palin. Biden… Read more »
How could you vote for Clinton who plundered her own foundation…???
Alex
It’s strange you see the presidential election mainly in terms of two people, while the whole US political system is at crossroads here.
The ECollege is not only superfluous, but unjustifiable, as it subverted the 2016 elections overruling at least 3 million voters.
With the (never used afaik) rights of the state’s assemblies to appoint electors basically at their pleasure, the system is totally anti democratic and must be scrapped.
Sorry Observer, but it happened that states nominated electors instead electing them, the last time it was Colorado in 1876, South Carolina did so until 1860 and until 1828 Delaware as well. Up to 1824 the list was long.
If the Electoral College were to have functioned as Hamilton and Madison intended it, there is no way a scoundrel such as Trump could ever have become president. The states began abusing the principle from the very start of the Republic, which infuriated both Messrs. H and M.
Is it fair, in the slightest, that a man who received only 2/5 of the popular vote should become president of all the United States?
No? It is not fair? Are we subverting the will of the people?
Congratulations. Abraham Lincoln just lost the election of 1860.
It is far from understandable – at least for someone who is not from the USA – that an electoral college is needed at all in the 21st century. Perhaps (perhaps!) it might have been useful in the 18th century without any reliable means of communications, but today a country that wants to be democratic can’t maintain any system that is disadvantaging voters. You have introduced voting for women and blacks since the electoral college was invented, so don’t say that reforms mustn’t be! Éva said it well, her vote doesn’t mean anything, since the voters of Connecticut are expected to vote for Biden with more than 60% anyway and her vote won’t have any additional value. I know that Lincoln got no majority of the popular vote, however a clear plurality. Despite that we here in Europe make a difference between head of state and head of government generally either the majority of the popular vote (if needed in a second round) or the majority of parliamental vote (if needed by searching a coalition) is needed. Where we have more advanced democracies in Europe than here in Hungary equal representation is a high value, even more where the head… Read more »
“Observer” – Your questions can be answered by perusing a fifth-grade US history textbook or eighth-grade US civics lesson. (In your country, I am pretty sure you call it Grade 5 and Grade 8, right?) We are a union of 50 states, not one-person-one-vote democracy. It’s known as a republic, although given your comment above (along with your previous comments), I am not convinced that you understand the difference between different varieties of democracy. I do not recall seeing any objections on this site when Canada’s Conservatives edged out the Liberals in the 2019 election, yet ended up with fewer parliamentary mandates. I also do not recall anyone whining about the fact that the MSZP won just 33% of the list vote in 1994, but ended up with 54% of the seats in parliament. That election was “fair and square.” Yet when Orban won 49% of the vote and 67% of the seats in parliament in 2018, that was “cheating.” I am well aware of the nefarious, coercive methods Orban has employed outside the voting system itself. No need for a lecture here. Just please keep in mind – you can’t always get what you want, and when you don’t… Read more »
Alex
I didn’t pose any question, but expressed an an opinion and I see no reason to change it, ie. the US states assemblies should not have the right to overrule the pop vote in POTUS elections, hence the electors become superfluous.
Majoritarian systems exist in many countries. Yes, the post 1989 Hu sys was leveraged and Fid increased it, in addition to gerrymandering and the other nefarious and coercive methods. No, to your last para – I have always maintained that the last free and fair elections in Hu were in 2010, ie. never disputed the results even as I saw the fascist coming.
No comment necessary:
Orbán: Our Task Is to Raise Children as ‘Homo Christianus’https://hungarytoday.hu/orban-our-task-is-to-raise-children-as-homo-christianus/
By saying that, he presses a default psychologigal “button”.
A polpularized neutral transformation of the “Homo Sovieticus” for which Orbán’s generation was systematically groomed and bent.
Forward – by steady soft winds of repeating Soviet propaganda from behind, while at the public schools and Pioneers, and at the summer camps.
Backward – by facing the national gales of Hungarian eastern-colonial mythology and hymns, while at home.
It makes perfect sense to most 40+ year-olds, at a subcontious level.
Talking about the dark ages Christianity in Hu:
The president of the Hu Catholic Bishops Conference András Veres stated p: “with the very painful for me in-vitro program we are committing a grave sin … it (the program) should be completely eliminated..”
Thankfully the good priest doesn’t want to burn anybody at the stake (yet?).
https://24.hu/belfold/2020/10/17/veres-andras-lombikprogram-abortusz/
The regime chose its policy of population growth stimuli over the Christian teachings and responded with assurances that the program will continue unabated.
Perhaps the photographer, Manuel Balce Ceneta, could tell us, but it really looks as if Little Master Viktor is sitting on Uncle Donald’s knee! Great picture.
I mean this is like “Rock my soul in the bosom of Uncle Trump”.
Fidesz traditionally prepares for elections long in advance. It is continuously planning many years ahead (updating the plans as developments occur) and it’s all but ready with the election preparations — when the opposition has only ideas about holding some kind of primaries etc. etc. Of course, this doesn’t mean that Fidesz will win (rather it’s the rigged nature of the system which is decisive in this respect) but the point is that Fidesz wants to decide things early on and have the machine running smoothly once the go ahead is given. Fidesz’ machine doesn’t change course (didn’t give up Borkai etc.), almost always the internal confusion such a change creates causes more harm than gain even on a district level. Execution must be consistent and disciplined, and this is possible only if there are no serious decisions to be made at a late stage. The picture, the mission for the underlings must be crystal clear and this decision (to replace some candidates i Budapest) is just part of those preparations. It’s a different, more methodical, more professional way of management than the opposition’s (which is much more haphazard, less focused, divided, inconsistent). “Conceding” Budapest is simply an opening gambit… Read more »
Marty, please! Although you’re right about the things you wrote about FIDESZ preparations, the opposition is doing way more than just planning primaries! They are working on a common program. That is not so easy seen the big differences of all these parties and the fact that the FIDESZ program is made by one man only and the rest has to follow. The big question in 2018 “what does the opposition want” will be answered by that. Further you forgot that FIDESZ of course dropped Borkai. They just allowed him to remain on the ballot only to prevent an opposition mayor and forced him to make the way free to new elections. This was dropping the FIDESZ way! Nevertheless I expect in future some possibility to exchange candidates under the provision that some FIDESZ led institution will agree to prevent these problems FIDESZ has seen in Győr and Mohács. Anyway, Orbán only allows the opposition to create some picture of a democratic Hungary, not to win. Everything else would be an accident – as Budapest has been one.
Istvan, it’s really good that the opposition will have a common programme. However. (i) No voter reads the programs (Fidesz didn’t even have a program for the last two elections), and (ii) secondly, the moment they get to power they will have to throw out the program because it will turn out that (A) they will not be able to govern (remember: prosecution, National Bank, the constitutional courts, the Energy Office, the Media Authority, the Competition Office, the courts, the National Audit Authority etc. etc. are all under loyal Fidesz rule) AND (B) the economy is in a much worse shape than what is apparent from the public info. “What does the opposition want?” should be answerable by three words or max. three sentences. (Again: no voter will ever read and analyze the programs, I certainly have never done it and I’m as politically curious as any). The answer should be no more complicated than this: We will: Take back the loot Punish the culprits Carry out radical tax cuts Or something like this. Remember that Labor had a fantastic left-wing program in 2019, people said it contained enough ideas for a decade of government and people still preferred the… Read more »
The attack “they have no program” used by FIDESZ is impossible if they have. That the only FIDESZ program is to do what Orbán wants was obviously not sufficient as answer. Of course the program needs to be reduced in communications. “Take back the loot” and “Punish the culprits” was enough for the popular vote in 2014, but this doesn’t mean anything, as we know. Since Orbán presents himself as the master of low taxes the option of tax cuts is not the ideal option. But you can’t start shouting something as long you need to agree on what to shout. We can agree about the fact that the economic statistics (and others of course) are far from reality. But do you really think we are the only 2 persons in Hungary that know about? Anticipation of those problems would create a good program. Sure, you need “overeducated” specialists for that, but it should be possible to find them. Perhaps even specialists that are willing to take responsible in an expert government. What to do with the FIDESZ occupied institutions? Difficult, but it can be solved. Orbán has demonstrated how to send home professionals and to replace them with loyal… Read more »
For all those that care about democracy in the US, as well as everywhere in the world, the remaining two weeks until the US election-day will be a nerve-wracking time, to say the least. No one can deny the facts that Trump is not only the worst president in US history, but he is completely unsuitable to handle and manage even a corner store, not to speak of occupying the Presidency of the most important western democracy. This being the case, we cannot discount the statistical possibility of the GOP’s continuing clinging to power. More interesting, and even if an absurd outcome however, the possibility that Trump will be voted in with Harris as his VP… Don’t laugh, it is although a very remote chance, but a chance nevertheless, due to the US election rules where there is a vote for the President and another one for the VP. Putting these aside, for losing the election and possibly the Senate majority as well, the failure of the Republican Party to hold onto power will be a bad omen for Orban too. Although there is a hope that the new democratic administration won’t be kind to the Orban-regime, the priorities… Read more »
The real question about American politics is how people can tolerate a Barr, a Mnuchin, and a McConnell in power…
“… Hungary won’t be able to count on any help from the EU, from the European leaders, or from anyone abroad…” Joe Biden last Thursday in Pennsylvania: “You see what is happening from Belarus to Poland to Hungary and (you see) the rise of totalitarian regimes in the world”. Wow!, what a statement (my opinion) and we remember: The US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo did not come to Hungary on his trip through Central and Eastern Europe because, in his opinion, the Hungarian government has an overly warm relationship with the Chinese. The latest reports now state the Nanjing Cher from Auto Precision Technology Co., Ltd. a plant in Miskolc and Huawei Technologies in Budapest will build a new research and development center for 5G technology. Another focus is the loan for the new construction of the railway line between Budapest and Belgrade, supported by the Chinese Exim-Bank. Further planning envisages the connection of the railway line to the Greek port of Piraeus, which is majority owned by the state-owned Chinese shipping company Cosco. The locomotives for this were already installed by Rail Cargo Hungaria (RCH) at the Chinese company CRRC Zhuzhou Locomotive Co., Ltd. ordered. We can… Read more »
First of all, Trump and Orbán are polar opposites!! (I’ll be writing to President Trump after he wins his landslide in a couple of weeks, because the concept that they are both somehow allies to the right ideology, which is false!! Nazism (aka fascism, national socialism or illiberalism, as Orbán calls it, does not equate to patriotism, which is what Trump is.) Second of all, you don’t need to confirm that this website is a communist news outlet by such simple and biased comments as “the likely victory of the Biden-Harris ticket”. Good luck with that one!! It’s sure that I don’t like some things Trump does, which buys into the coronavirus lie, but that said, the more you commies hate him, the more I like him. He is not by any means a homophobe (which actually means a phobia against homosapiens, but you wish to say homosexuals – no matter) – he doesn’t give you a job because of your race, skin color or sexual orientation, but of your competence! Biased news!! I hate it. In fact, I hate Orbán, I hate Soros and I hate Islam. All evil. And I hate the Biden family mafia organization – commies… Read more »
“He (Biden) is a man who is desperate to be President of the United States, and this is his third run,” Levin said.”
Three Strikes and You’re OUT
https://www.breitbart.com/radio/2020/10/16/mark-levin-joe-biden-nasty-human-being-who-lied-his-way-power/
Now who’s crazier and more stupid?
Chris D or breitfart or Eric Trump who tweeted an obvious lie on Biden’s house/mansion/castle?
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/biden-mansion-tweet/
🙂 🙂
Hahaha! Your daddy wears women’s underwear. Listening to Fake News all day long will certainly give you the runs. Biden May Be Inadvertently Implicated by Washington Post: https://youtu.be/-TKXF7rmOcU ! its almost like the media is owned by communist billionaires: Hunter Story BURIED by the Mainstream Media: https://youtu.be/c0RYrDDaqaA
“the media is owned by communist billionaires”
Communist billionaires? Really????
One has to remember that the media is in a life and strength struggle to survive, and will pump helium into Trump’s chances just to give the hapless citizenry some interest in the elections..
BIDEN and the MEDIA Are Getting VERY NERVOUS and It’s Starting to SHOW!!!
https://youtu.be/YiRQniish2I
If anyone wants to see a real christian fascist – just look at this video, but be warned, 45 min of religious crap is a lot to …
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Steve_Turley
Funnily enough “Dr” Turley (his degree is in theology …) is a big fan of O1G … 🙂 🙂
Turley also promotes his love for Orbán by selling “Defender Of Europe” mugs with his face on them.
“Defender of Europe”
That’s a good one. Little fat Viktor is “defending” Europe by waving his lángos in front of hungry migrants.
And you’re loosing your mind.
Wolfi, from one “ignorant anus” (as Dias titled us earlier) to the other: That man is more stupid, since he has not the slightest idea what the world is like or what is a myth, while Breitbart with all consequence wants the USA to become a fascist state, no matter what lies are needed to be published to archive that aim. This also means that Breitbart is more dangerous, since they have a strategy. Who ever might think that Dias might be seriously talking about HS being communist – while our host exactly escaped from communism.
OT
Today the Austrian government announced stricter measures [starting friday] against the further spreading of the Corona-Virus.
read [in German] at https://orf.at/stories/3185774/
watch press conference [in German] at https://tvthek.orf.at/profile/ZIB-Spezial-zum-Coronavirus/13889652/ZIB-Spezial-PK-der-Bundesregierung-zur-Verschaerfung-der-Corona-Massnahmen/14068610/Verschaerfte-CoV-Massnahmen-ab-Freitag/14781013
Herewith my comparison for the actual data:
data [per 1M population]: Austria – Hungary
new daily cases 7-day average: 153 – 132
new daily cases weekly increase: 1.30 – 1.21
daily tests 7-day average: 2056 – 1034
positive tests % last 7-days: 7.43% – 12.77% [!]
in hospital today: 89 [tot.799] – 196 [tot.1896!]
weekly increase hospital: 1.42 – 1.34
daily deaths 7-day average: 0.78 – 3.03 [!]
daily deaths weekly increase: 1.32 – 1.52
So new daily cases may be a little less in Hungary, BUT
–testing is way less with a way higher positive rate
–hospitalization is way higher
–deaths are way higher and increasing much stronger
To me the situation in Hungary looks much worse and more out of “control” than in Austria!
But afaik there are still no stricter measures announced by OV nor advised by OV’s pandemic team…
One of the advisors of OV’s pandemic team, mathematician Röst Gergely, has together with his colleagues just published an interesting article [preprint at medRxiv] – https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.11.20211037v1
Its conclusions: “In summary, testing and isolation of cases is a key tool in combating the pandemic. However, symptom-based testing alone is not sufficient to control COVID-19. To significantly ease the disease burden on the society, it must be used in combination with other measures.”
My understanding of the article is that a successful strategy against the Covid- pandemic must contain:
1.good and sufficient testing
2.maximum isolation and agile contact-tracing based on positive tests
3.if capacities of 1 and 2 appear to be insufficient, asap additional containment measures must be implemented
4.during period of additional containment measures capacities of 1 and 2 are recommended to be increased
5.additional containment measures may only be [partly] lifted, if demands for 1 and 2 are clearly under available maximum capacities
Currently in Hungary capacities of 1 and 2 are clearly not sufficient!
–actual 7-day positive testing rate of 12.9% and today even reaching an all-time max with 15.6%
–average daily test capacity since more than a month at 10.000, while positive rate keeps increasing way above the WHO recommendation of 4%
–also of note are the steady rising figures for both hospitalisation and daily deaths of CoViD-19 patients
Meanwhile OV’s pandemic team nor government are willing to implement stricter measures against the pandemic, imho this is [OV’s] road to disaster!
The damage that has been done by Bush, Obama and Trump is incalculable and beyond repair. Why should we assume that Biden/Harris will do better? I prefer Biden because and only because he is not Trump. I am however not confident he will not mess up. The US is supposed to be the leader of the free world but its people are not switched on to that. They mistake it for an excuse for macho jingoism.
Aida, that is a very thorough analysis and summing up of the situation we are in and how we got there.
This gives hope – it’s from the American Values Survey from PRRI. I have a subscription to their email-newsletter. Tried to link to this but only found their 2019 report:
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/AVS-2019-Presentation-FINAL.pdf
OT: Potatoes in parliament as present for the “krumplikirály” (king of potatoes). Some comments about a mute opposition without any ideas?
https://444.hu/2020/10/19/jakab-peter-egy-zsak-krumplit-rakott-volna-orban-ele-a-parlamentben-kocsis-mate-nem-hagyta
Well y’all the 2020 election could wind up like this play from the 1955 World Series Dodgers vs the Yankees
Ump called Robinson ‘safe’ at the plate and as a result he ‘stole home’. Catcher Berra not too happy with the call. Berra said, ‘He was ‘OUT!’. 😎 ☝️
We could be looking at a Dem-Republican rhubarb if this election gets ‘stolen’ in plain sight folks.
https://youtu.be/0pFnzx4NQIE
Stealing elections began with the Kennedy’s in 1960, and was matched by Bush in 2000. Nothing new.
Why should we assume that Biden/Harris will do better? I prefer Biden because and only because he is not Trump. I am however not confident he will not mess up. The US is supposed to be the leader of the free world but its people are not switched on to that.
see more at
https://noithatdongthanh.vn/thi-cong-noi-that-nhap-khau.html
https://noithatdongthanh.vn/thiet-ke-noi-that-phong-doc-sach.html
if you think trump will lose , you are gravely mistaken. trump will win in a landslide against biden, the corrupt, demented, senile puppet of the communist American left. learn about truman and dewey.